Tier 2 Running Backs for 2024: Prime volume hogs and part-time playmakers
In today's Fantasy Life newsletter, Pete previews what could be a busy week next week around the NFL, Dwain breaks down his RB tiers, and more.
We’re less than 50 days away from the start of the NFL season, but it feels like 500 days right now.
Us fantasy sickos are absolutely starved for fantasy-relevant nuggets right now.
We are that C’mon, Do Something meme with NFL news…
Training camps are just getting underway, but we’ve yet to get one of those pieces of news that can rile us all up and shake up the draft board.
I’ll take anything right now. A guy running with the 1s. An RB getting used out of the slot. A downfield WR who expanded their route tree this offseason.
GIVE US ANYTHING (throwback jerseys don’t count).
I’ve refreshed the Rotoworld news feed four different times today. The closest thing we have to resembling news is Nick Chubb getting placed on the training camp PUP list.
But the training camp PUP designation is pretty meaningless, players can be activated at any time.
By Monday, the fire hose of NFL news and camp nuggets should be spraying non-stop, so we might as well rest up this weekend. Dive into our treasure trove of resources here at Fantasy Life. Draft a few more best ball teams. Hug your family.
Do whatever you got to do, because it’s just about go time…
What is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain McFarland’s RB Tiers
- Introducing FantasyLife+
- Watercooler: Is Davante Adams going to get traded?
Running Back Rankings and Tiers
Tier 2 – Prime volume hogs and part-time playmakers
This tier has “pick your poison” vibes. You can go with guys with safer projectable volume, like Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, or swing for upside with Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane, who have more competition for touches.
Gibbs averaged an impressive 16.3 PPG in his first season, and his numbers weren't inflated due to games missed by David Montgomery. From Week 10 through the NFC championship game, when both backs were healthy, Gibbs was equally impressive.
I have Gibbs projected for 14.9 PPG (RB5 overall), with 39% of the rushing attempts and a 12% target share. Many young backs take a significant step forward in Year 2. If Gibbs nudges those numbers to reasonable 50% and 14% marks, he surges to 18.5 PPG (RB2 overall).
Jonathan Taylor delivered 17.6 PPG in the eight games where he reached 50% of snaps or more in 2023. The departure of Zack Moss leaves Taylor as the clear-cut RB1 in a rushing offense that projects for the second-most yards in our model (134 per game).
The fifth-year back is entering his post-prime era, but his underlying YCO (3.1) and MTF (17%) data remained RB1-worthy last season despite never looking 100%. Anthony Richardson is a threat to steal high-value touches inside the five-yard line, and his scrambling ability could further depress Taylor's already mediocre target-earning profile, keeping Taylor from Tier 1 status.
Saquon Barkley has delivered RB1-worthy numbers in four of five healthy seasons. His YCO and MTF numbers have never been the same since his season-ending knee injury in 2020, but the Eagles' offensive line offers a massive upgrade over the Giants. Philadelphia returns four starters after ranking as PFF's No. 1 unit in 2023 versus No. 30 for New York.
However, what Barkley gains in yardage efficiency, he could easily lose in high-leverage touches. Over the last two seasons, Jalen Hurts led all QBs with 45% and 47% of the Eagles attempts inside the five-yard line. While Barkley faces little competition for backfield touches, his role in the passing attack is also in question for two reasons.
Hurts is willing to run instead of checking it down, ranking fourth and seventh in scramble rate in two full seasons.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are vastly better than the receiving options Barkley battled for looks in New York.
Barkley projects well, but I have concerns about his ceiling, which makes him someone I don't expect to draft often.
De'Von Achane took the league by storm last season, averaging 16.3 (PPG). If we remove Weeks 1 and 11, when he only played 8% and 4% of snaps due to injury, his average was 19.6. He doesn't offer the same projectable volume as Barkley and Taylor, but his price is closer to his floor than his ceiling.
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