Drafting from 1.05: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 5 pick

I maintain that The Book of Eli is one of Denzel Washington’s most underrated movies.

The opening scene alone sets the stage for this piece. Denzel, on his own in a post-apocalyptic world, is obviously like drafting from the 1.01. Before the sequence even kicks into high gear, you know you’d rather be in Eli’s position than anyone else’s.

I mean, come on. It’s Denzel. King Kong ain’t got nothin’ on him.

The beggar (decoy, really), scavenger leader, and his lackeys are the 1.02 to 1.04 slots. They instantly ratchet up the intensity, but Denzel knew what to expect out of each of them. Similarly, we have some sense of what the first few picks will be. But, after assessing the situation, Washington sliding back under the overpass is the 1.05.

I realize I’m counting Denzel twice in this analogy, but bear with me. If you watched the movie, you felt like you knew what was going to happen. But you didn’t really know. Everything was on the table. And I certainly didn’t expect a well-choreographed silhouette fight sequence. But then again, if I’m drafting from the fifth spot, I’m not sure what to expect there, either.

The First Round

Draft Settings: PPR, ESPN ADP, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX

While a fantasy draft isn’t as gripping as a neo-Western after a nuclear war, my approach to the 1.05 is the same: expect the unexpected (or lesser-expected, if that’s a word).

I’m less likely to acquire the security of a player who recently finished as the best at their position (e.g., Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, or Tyreek Hill). Instead, I have to wait and see who’s available after the first four picks. We’re drafting based on (analytical) vibes. By using our Draft Champion tool, I was able to simulate what may happen in an actual draft.

I reset the simulator ten times and got the same results all but one time (Amon-Ra St. Brown snuck in at 1.04 once). Christian McCaffrey at third overall is like the scavenger leader from the movie. In a league requiring three WRs each week (plus a flex), I’m not surprised. But anyone else transitioning from best ball might gasp at the price drop. Unfortunately, I don’t have a razor-sharp blade to save me (I’d definitely cut myself playing with it), and it wouldn’t help me decide anyway. But I do have the Draft Assistant to give me some suggestions.

For the sake of argument, let’s say I don’t like these options. Don’t get me wrong, they’re all individually talented. Their situations are problematic, though. None of them have QBs with a top-15 ADP. The systemic risk is worth considering. And when compared to the rushers available at the same time, an RB start emphasizes how volatile the 1.05 can be.

Bijan Robinson: 279 (projected PPR points)
Breece Hall: 281

Despite the different positions, the projections paint a similar outlook for two RBs and two WRs. Luckily, our tiers can be a viable way to break ties.

With Chase already out, I’ve got three choices: Robinson, Hall, and ARSB. Coincidentally, building a trio of teams has been the theme of this series. I prefer to open with a WR in this format, but we should still be able to build a solid roster with either RB.

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Admittedly, after looking at the two leagues with an RB start, I’m liking this approach more and more. My AI leaguemates took six RBs over the fourteen picks before the 2.08. All but one rusher remained from the second tier. Plus, it’s not like Hall or Robinson aren’t the ideal candidates to finish in the top 3 this year.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

On top of his rushing prowess, Hall earned targets at a higher per-route rate than CMC and was more efficient than the SF RB1. Meanwhile, when former HC Arthur Smith gave him more than 60.0% of the snaps, Robinson posted top-6 marks in forced missed tackle rate, adjusted yards after contact, and target share. With the Falcons expected to run a more fast-paced offense this year, Robinson’s environment now aligns with his talent. In any case, our ranks and tiers set me up with a strong set of starters halfway through the early rounds.

Team 3 flies against every principle I hold dear. In a PPR, three-WR start league, I only have one receiver. It’s blasphemy. My only excuse is that De’Von Achane accrued a 12.8% target share across his nine healthy games as a rookie. Otherwise, passing up any of the WRs feels like a mistake. Plus, the available WRs in the fourth round didn’t make me feel any better.

The rookie attached to Daniel Jones (with sixth-overall draft capital to his name, to be fair) is my top option. Three of the remaining four missed two or more games last season. I’m being overly pessimistic, but there is a feeling of “needing to catch up” in drafts. Consequently, we reach for players at one position while skipping out on value at another. However, in this case, I applied a bit of micro-analysis to weave through the next few rounds.

Instead of Malik Nabers and his potential ceiling as the Giants’ WR1, I opted for Christian Kirk’s floor. Before his injury, the Jags’ slot man was earning more targets per game than Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, and DeVonta Smith. With some stability at my WR2, I could inject more volatility into my receiver corps to close out the early rounds.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Even with strong cores, Teams 1 and 2 needed players with contingent upside to weather the storm of the regular season. While I’m confident in Robinson and Henry, Josh Jacobs is likely in a timeshare, and there’s some ambiguity on who will fit best in OC Ryan Grubb’s backfield in Seattle, placing some doubt on Kenneth Walker’s grip on the majority workload. Accordingly, I used some basic thresholds to find a mid-tier option to add to my RB stable.

Projected for close to 50.0% of the team’s carries
Runs a route on over 40.0% of their QB’s dropbacks
Averages 2-3 targets per game

Fortunately, situation isn’t as much of a need as volume. And actually, taking it a step further, the lack of clarity (or even one that appears negative) can be one to lean into as drafters shy away from the unknown. Regardless, with those guardrails in place, the mid-round results stacked good value on top of a high-end core to keep my teams in contention each week.

I’ll be honest: I’m not wild about the Jameson Williams or Jonathon Brooks picks. I’m skeptical about Williams’ “ascending role” in an offense primed for another year of featuring ARSB and Sam LaPorta on a bottom-3 offense in PROE. And Brooks starting camp on the PUP list is still up in the air. However, their profiles, being capable of earning fantasy-relevant workloads on potentially good teams, should always be on our radar when mining for value in the middle rounds.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.05: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 5 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.05: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 5 pick

Go FantasyLife+

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Go FantasyLife+

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY