Drafting at the 1.09 is like going to eat at your favorite hole-in-the-wall joint.

Sure, it looks sketchy from the outside. If anyone’s with you and unfamiliar with the area, they might question your logic (and their safety). But you already know what to expect. And, if you’ve been there a few times, any hidden gems become common knowledge.

The nine hole is no different. Based on the market, we already have a sense of who will be available. There aren’t any Christian McCaffrey types lingering at the back end of the first round. However, we can find the good portions of the menu (draft board) worth targeting. Let’s start with what you’ll likely see at the start of the draft.

The First Round

*Draft Settings: PPR, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)

From a glass-half-full perspective, the 1.09 makes your life easier. There’s no need to debate on if you should take Ja'Marr Chase or Breece Hall. The folks around the fourth and sixth overall picks have to make that choice. In any case, our Draft Champion tool is a quick way to gauge how the first eight picks will shake out.

I re-ran the simulation a few times without much change in the results. You might see A.J. Brown at 1.07 or 1.08, but a 6-2 split in favor of WRs should be a common sight. More importantly, the skill players from our first two tiers will likely be gone. Your top options won’t be as sexy (relatively speaking), but they’re still strong options for starting any squad.

Our Draft Assistant gives you five suggested picks, but I’m highlighting these three for a couple of reasons. First, the WRs are similar (more on that shortly). Also, the RB points us down a different build path. Ultimately, we can construct three distinct teams from this starting point alone. But let’s get back to the receivers for a bit.

Puka Nacua’s 28.8% target share ranked seventh amongst all WRs in ’23. His targets (160) and yards (1,486) are the most of any rookie receiver this century. But it’s tough to expect a repeat performance—especially when his primary competition for targets (Cooper Kupp) missed or wasn’t fully healthy in at least six games. But, when both were on the field at (mostly) full strength, Nacua had the edge:

• (Weeks 5-8, 13-17) TPRR: 26.8% (Nacua), 25.3% (Kupp)
• Air-Yard Share: 33.6%, 27.5%
• Play-Action Target Share: 27.7%, 23.4%

But Kupp still had a 23-17 lead on red-zone targets. Accordingly, his status as a WR2 is up for grabs. Regardless, Nacua’s slight change in environment (i.e. having Kupp back healthy all season) casts some doubt on his bid for another WR1 campaign. Coincidentally, A.J. Brown’s ’24 outlook comes with questions, too.

After rampaging through the league (mostly through WAS CB Emmanuel Forbes), Philly’s WR1 had only one more game over 100 yards. He had just two top-12 finishes in the fantasy playoffs. And despite the concern about “the offense being 95% new,” I’m not as worried about Brown’s part in Kellen Moore’s vision for the Eagles.

Last year, Brown saw his lowest slot rate since 2020 without a depreciable drop in his aDOT (12.3). Of course, he’s a GAM and still wins on the outside. But Moore’s made things easier for his WR1s.

• 2023: Keenan Allen, 58.2% (slot rate), 9.7 (air yards per target)
• 2022: CeeDee Lamb, 52.7%, 10.0

Even when Moore had Amari Cooper and Lamb, the duo accounted for over a third of the interior looks. Their average air yards per target (11.1 and 10.3) were each a full yard less than Brown’s. So, while I understand the bad vibes around each, they each have top-12 upside, making them worthy of a first-round pick.

• Team 1: Puka Nacua
• Team 2: A.J. Brown
• Team 3: Bijan Robinson

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The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

So, we started with an understanding of what to expect once the draft gets to us at ninth overall. However, the 2.04 isn’t as predictable. With the remaining three teams harnessing the turn, differing strategies can allow some guys through the cracks. 

Ultimately, there’s nothing abnormal here. But staring down Jahmyr Gibbs or any of the available WRs is a surprise. My first instinct is to make the click to add the Lions RB1 (A? B?) to my team. However, there’s more to consider than filling a draft slot. 

Let’s say I take Gibbs as my RB1. I miss out on Drake London’s (projected) 248 PPR points. By ADP, my best WR options at the 3.09 are Nico Collins (211 projected PPR points), Malik Nabers (218), and DK Metcalf (217). I’m sacrificing an average of 1.9 PPR PPG to get my RB1. 

But let’s flip it around and take London. Travis Etienne, De’Von Achane, or Josh Jacobs could be there in the next round. Their average gap in points from Gibbs is only 14.5 points. I’m risking less than a point per game to push RB to the next round. However, since drafts don’t always break the same way, let’s explore both approaches through the first three rounds.

Part of the issue with an RB open, specifically with Robinson, is what happens after the turn. London’s ADP (17.0 on Yahoo) indicates he’d be someone up for grabs at the 2.04. But RBs and WRs are negatively correlated. When one position gets into the end zone, they’re taking away a scoring opportunity from the other. 

The most weeks any team had with both an RB and WR finishing inside the top 12 was eight (LA). The Lions were next at five, which hints at the outlier performance by the Rams. So, despite wanting to stack a solid offense while also attacking two different positions, Team 3 had to let London go.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

A strategy I’ve often harped on is setting positional priorities for the middle rounds. But from the nine hole, this approach has two benefits. First (and most obvious), you know where your roster is weak. And with our tiered rankings and projections, you can plug those gaps. Second, and likely more important, you can do the same for your opponents.

By the seventh round, I had Team 1’s needs listed as:

1. RB
2. QB
3. WR

I noted Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray as potential options in the seventh round, but James Conner was still on the board. I’ve been more into Conner as a mid-round savior at the RB spot after going back through some of his peripherals from ’23. Without much hesitation, I added Arizona’s RB1 to my stable. 

Big mistake.

I didn’t look at the teams in the 10 or 11 spot. Both were also lacking at QB. So, naturally, the next two picks were like a double punch to the gut.

Admittedly, this doesn’t destroy my draft. I addressed a more pressing need anyway. However, there’s an analogy to poker in this instance. You’re not just playing your cards, but the range of hands your opponents may have. And, in this case, you can see their cards! Regardless, after missing out on the last of the Tier 2 passers, I was still able to snag a Tier 3 option (the same grouping as Murray) two rounds later.

I’ll be honest. Team 2 gives me the most pause. The fragility at RB with just Joe Mixon and Zamir White without much in the way of contingent upside (other than Chase Brown) may keep this squad scrambling at the waiver wire all season. Options like MarShawn Lloyd and Jaleel McLaughlin are viable late-round options to shore up the position. Regardless, through using the projections and tiers, you can build a solid roster that can take down any league.

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY

• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 1st Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 2nd Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 3rd Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 4th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 5th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 6th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 7th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 8th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 9th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 10th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 11th Pick
• Fantasy Draft Strategy with the 12th Pick