Drafting from 1.11: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 11 pick

One of my favorite episodes of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia is The Gang Solves the Gas Crisis.

The title alone makes me giggle.

But the pertinent part is Charlie claiming he’s the wild card of the group. Dennis, in his infinite wisdom, explains that nobody wants a maniac making decisions. It benefits no one. But, to play the 1.11 right, you have to cut the brake lines and bail on your friends (metaphorically speaking, of course).

You see, as the 11th drafter, your leaguemates expect you to roll over and go with the flow. If they’re drafting WRs, you’ll take whatever’s left. Don’t bother with a draft strategy. At the 1.11, your leaguemates are banking on you to copy them—with worse players!

Forget that.

I say we lean into the wild card bit and build a contending roster. Let’s ride.

The First Round

The hardest part about drafting from the 11 spot is the first round. I tend to feel slightly behind already because 10 other (theoretically) better players just went before my pick. Now, I’m playing catchup from the jump. We need to flip the script.

Our Draft Champion tool is a quick way to set expectations. Sure, I know my 11th pick won’t be as good as the first or fourth. But knowing who I can pick gives me a path. I can devise a loose strategy. So, with some default settings, I simulated the first 10 selections using ESPN’s ADP.

My best-ball brain can’t get over the number of RBs this early. Nevertheless, we’ve got a few things to consider here.

First, I gave you the board instead of who’s available for a reason: to recreate the feeling of despair. Everyone goes into the lobby, sees all of the elite first-round options, and thinks they all have an equal shot at one of them. No, you (at the 1.11) don’t. Consequently, instead of pining away for Bijan Robinson or Justin Jefferson, we should be preparing for who’s more likely to be there when we’re on the clock.

I swapped ADP sources to Yahoo, and Marvin Harrison Jr. slid into the top suggestions from the Draft Assistant. With Sleeper ADP, more WRs went ahead of me, leaving Breece Hall at 1.11. Regardless, this is our pool to kick off the draft. I won't lie. It looks dire. But actually, it’s not so bad.

Eight players comprise our first two tiers. Put another way, we weren’t going to get a high-end player at the 11th-overall slot, anyway. Even better, neither were the folks a couple of spots ahead of us. In any case, the list gives us a foundation to build a multiverse of teams to test different approaches.

Team 1: Jonathan Taylor (Hero RB)
Team 2: Puka Nacua (Hero RB)
Team 3: Garrett Wilson (Zero RB)

Notice I tacked on a draft strategy to each name. To be clear, I’m not beholden to them. However, with just two picks before being back on the clock at the 2.02, I need some idea of what I want to do. Again, I’m trying to set expectations. However, we can still let the board inform our next move.

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Let’s focus on Team 1 for a bit.

With a Hero RB strategy in mind, I’d be looking at WRs after the turn. Six already went off the board before me. Plus, the bot in the 12 spot didn’t do me any favors.

However, here’s where we can tap into the wild card bit and do the unexpected.

As I said, I have a Hero RB approach in mind. And following what the last drafter did (take a WR) can be a common reaction. But in this case, we could start our squad with two RBs from Tier 2. In addition, the dropoff in WR isn’t as steep as you’d think.

Davante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Chris Olave are the usual early-second-round options. Still, I can pick up other Tier 3 WRs like Brandon Aiyuk or Jaylen Waddle at the 3.11. Since RB wasn’t going to be a priority until later in the middle rounds anyway, opening with an RB-RB start can work in your favor.

Admittedly, Team 1’s WRs are weaker by comparison. Just look at the names. To confirm, I used our projections to calculate weekly averages for each team’s starting trio of WRs.

Team 1: 38.6 (projected PPR PPG)
Team 2: 41.4
Team 3: 42.2

But keep in mind the position advantage Team 1 has over the others. By the same process, Gibbs (Team 1’s RB2) should accrue 13.7 PPR PPG. His weekly average covers the gap when compared to most RBs available in the middle rounds, like Najee Harris (8.9), Brian Robinson (8.8), or Tony Pollard (9.2). Accordingly, all three squads should go into the middle rounds looking to address their relative limitations.

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Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

I hit the onesie positions for Team 2 and Team 3 early on purpose. It runs counter to my preferred team-building ethos for the early rounds, but they both have strong cores. Regardless, after a brief assessment, both teams have similar positional needs.

As I mentioned, my QB-TE detours make my priorities simpler. But not every rusher at ADP should wind up on our roster. And we can’t ignore WRs. Luckily, I’ve been able to devise some thresholds for ball carriers based on historical data.

Projected for close to 50.0% of the team’s carries
Runs a route on over 40.0% of their QB’s dropbacks
Averages 2-3 targets per game

These metrics are more of a guide or a way to break ties. We don’t know every workload, but if given a few options, you can whittle down your choices.

Austin Ekeler’s been looking to trim down his workload after leaving LA. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are sharing a backfield. Javonte Williams and Zack Moss are the two rushers with the likeliest path to a workhorse role. I prefer Williams but, since I’m at the 11 spot, I may not have to choose.

The CPU at the 1.12 took three RBs with its first four picks. It only has Puka Nacua and Tee Higgins at WR. With this information, I can draft one RB knowing there’s a chance the other may still be there in the eighth. Of course—I say that like I knew it would work—I played it right.

Granted, judging whether or not someone will select from one of the core positions is a tougher bet. Personal preferences and tendencies may change things. But the general process is the same: track what the other team has drafted earlier to determine what they’re less likely to take now. Keeping these guardrails in mind will produce a contending squad through the middle rounds.

I realize I’m drafting in theoretical conditions. And if I "make a mistake," I can rewind time and rethink my selection. Nonetheless, each team comes out with a fighting chance to make the playoffs. I was able to “make up” my WR weakness on Team 1, while grabbing RBs with upside for Team 3. Just remember to be the wild card from the 1.11 (along with using our rankings and projections), and your roster will come out as strong as the teams drafting from earlier positions.

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Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.11: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 11 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.11: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 11 pick

The First Round

Go FantasyLife+

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

FantasyLife+ Projections