Drafting From 1.12: Optimal Fantasy Draft Strategy with the No. 12 Pick

It took me a few re-watches to understand the meaning behind Skyfall.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s probably the best of Daniel Craig’s James Bond movies. Javier Bardem’s opening monologue? Chef’s kiss. But the doom and gloom was overblown.

The first sequence shows Bond getting shot and falling to his death. Afterward, everyone questions why he returned to his likely demise. Plus, Adele’s hit song, starting with the lyric ‘This is the end,’ played into the dark tone. But Craig still reprised the role two more times. In 007 parlance, he lived to die another day.

Drafting from the 1.12 feels like the end. I mean, it literally is the end of standard leagues, but you know what I mean. Waiting for 11 picks to make your first selection is agonizing. Following ADP feels like a losing battle. However, like Bond, with some gadgets and tools at your side, you get through a (draft) battle without too much damage.

The First Round

*Draft Settings: PPR, Yahoo ADP, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)

The first round is like the super cool ski instructor meme from South Park. If you think you’re going to get one of the hyped, elite options at the 1.12, you’re going to have a bad time. You’ll be disappointed. At the same time, any pre-draft plans you may have had will go out the window. So, let’s set expectations.

Our Draft Champion tool can simulate a draft with a few mouse clicks. Even better, if you have a grasp of your league mates' tendencies (e.g., Zero RB, Heavy RB, etc.), you can assign the bots to use their approach. From there, we can see what we’re up against.

Christian McCaffrey’s calf strain and Puka Nacua’s busted bursa sac (I had to google what a bursa sac was) may drop their ADP, but this is a representative set based on Yahoo’s market. Regardless, there are two big takeaways here.

First, by our rankings and tiers, you’ll be picking out of the third grouping of players. Fortunately, there are still plenty of gems. But you’re not just making one pick. Consequently, having a loose plan regarding your draft strategy becomes a key component of the 1.12.

Will it inform your next move(s) at the 3.12? Yes.

Do you need to follow it for the rest of the draft? Nope.

But consider these three starts.

Team 1: Davante Adams, Jahmyr Gibbs
Team 2: Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs
Team 3: Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London

Swap the names out for whoever you’re more comfortable with at cost. The positional allocation is the focus here. Team 1 offers balance, while the other two have the markings of Hero or Zero RB. There’s no requirement for any squad to adhere to the approach, but the third round (and beyond) becomes much more pivotal as we build out our core roster.

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Following ADP and using our tiers has been something I’ve harped on throughout this series. However, the underlying assumption is a player’s availability.

Say, for instance, you have the 1.08 instead of the twelve. With fewer picks between yours, you can gauge if a guy in your queue will still be around. It’s not an exact science, but your chances of being right diminish as you get closer to the turn. The result is you’ll have to ignore ADP to get your guy. Let’s use Team 2 as an example.

Deebo Samuel was an autoclick at 36th overall. I suspect if the Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors prove to be true, Samuel’s draft cost will skyrocket. Nevertheless, he’s an ideal WR to headline a robust RB start. However, my choices at the 4.01 aren’t as clear-cut.

Admittedly, this batch of wideouts straddles the second and third tiers. But my Cincinnati bias doesn’t lend itself to being rational. Honestly, I could make a case for any of the WRs. The only issue is their relative cost.

Normally, I’d adhere to ADP. DK Metcalf’s average draft position on the site is 39.8. He must be better! But even our projections lend credence to the idea that reaching for a player isn’t a bad bet.

In short, from the twelve spot, price becomes more qualitative than numbers to use as guidelines. I’m not up again until 60th overall. The draft assistant highlights that my chances of acquiring any of my WR targets later are less than 20.0%. So, by bending the market to my will, I can build a strong nucleus from a seemingly disadvantageous position.

As I mentioned earlier, Team 1’s open provided more flexibility. I could’ve taken another RB at the 3.12, but a Kupp-Nabers combo was too good to pass up. So, I pivoted to Hero RB with detours at the onesies to close out the early rounds. Looking back on it, Marvin Harrison, instead of Davante Adams, would be sick. In any case, the outcome highlights the need for a loose strategy in mind with the open-mindedness to shift as the draft breaks in your favor.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Another potential pitfall of drafting last comes in the middle rounds. Theoretically, you have the majority of your starters identified. Ideally, you’re listing your positions of need and finding players to fill gaps and add depth. However, your overall team structure may force you to narrow your focus to specific profiles. Team 1 is a good case in point.

Through six rounds, I have one RB (Gibbs). Rushers would be my top priority with WR at #2. But the board at 7.12 presents a problem.

The top pick won’t be on the field for the first month of the season. The second and fourth alternatives are in the same backfield. Just mindlessly adding a player at a position of need will only hurt my roster. We have two choices here.

One path would be to use the projections to break ties at RB and then grab a WR. I’m a bit more optimistic about Brian Robinson’s outlook with the changes coming to Washington, but Javonte Williams does have a better shot to be an every-down rusher. It satisfies two roster necessities. But there’s another way to play this.

I already know Gibbs isn’t leaving my RB1 slot. Assuming there’s fire with all of the Williams smoke, Denver’s slimmed-up RB1 will be in my RB2 spot. In this case, I can wait for Brooks. Plus, the aggression can push other managers to rethink their draft plans. Regardless, in doing so, I can fill out my starting roster and shelter my squad from the chaos of the regular season.

I’ll be honest. I don’t love the Brock Bowers pick for Team 3. Adding Jayden Reed (who went at 8.03) and waiting to pick up Pat Freiermuth (13.06) makes more sense. WR was a higher priority at the initial stage of the middle rounds, and my receiver corps looks weak as a whole.

Nevertheless, we have a blueprint for attacking the draft out of the 1.12. It’s not a death sentence. The last spot is a chance to shove the market back at the league. They have to follow ADP. You don’t. As a result, you have more control over your fate than you realize.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting From 1.12: Optimal Fantasy Draft Strategy with the No. 12 Pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Players Mentioned in this Article