Drafting from 1.07: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 7 pick

I’ll never forgive LeSean McCoy.

I had tickets to see “Avengers: Endgame” two days after its release. Little did I know I’d see my future boss on the big screen, but that’s another story. Anyway, like every other Marvel fan, I was excited (and anxious) to see the conclusion of 11 years of epic storytelling.

But, of course, the longer I waited, the more I heard about it. From a glimpse of a new trailer here or friends discussing it there, the first-time joy of seeing something new lost its luster. Then, Shady delivered the knockout punch with an all-time spoiler.

However, I still loved the movie when I saw it that Sunday. To this day, I’ll get goosebumps seeing the sequence of Mjolnir lifting from the ground as Thanos leans in to kill Thor. More importantly, there were a myriad of unspoiled pieces to the movie that made the experience worthwhile. I still found value in the event. Drafting from the 1.07 has a similar vibe to it.

The First Round

*Draft Settings: PPR, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)

Like waiting to see a movie, the seven spot can feel like you’re stuck in place while everyone else is enjoying the show. All you can do is wait for your turn and hope any goodness is still there.

Our Draft Champion tool is an easy way to set expectations.

The functionality allows you to conform the simulator to your league. And I’m not talking about just the basic settings like scoring format and number of starting positions. But if you know one of your leaguemates loves RBs or wants QBs early, the background logic can account for the preferred strategy. I used the default settings but was not surprised by the first six picks.

Seeing these picks makes the idea of drafting less fun. I want these guys. Despite needing to start at least three WRs each week, I even made the case for opening with Breece Hall.

In any case, we need to start somewhere. Luckily, the Draft Assistant can leverage the Fantasy Life staff rankings to come up with a pool of suggestions.

Unquestionably, your league will be different. But the gist of the 1.07 is the same: All of the top-tier options are gone. The market (and the six opponents ahead of us) are forcing us to bet on the unknown. And while the top pick has some yellow flags (one, really), I’m less hesitant to make the click compared to the other options.

There’s no denying Justin Jefferson’s talent. Jefferson averaged 11.8 targets per game before his Week 5 injury. Only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams garnered more looks from their QB. After his seven-week absence, JJettas was one of six WRs with a target share north of 30.0%. And his 2.94 YPRR ranked third out of the group. But the concern for Jefferson’s value isn’t on him. It’s his QB.

As of this writing, Sam Darnold will be the Vikings’ starter in camp. His last start came in a meaningless Week 18 as the 49ers’ gunslinger. Before that, he came on in relief on Christmas day as San Francisco got blown out by the Ravens. In both cases, Darnold’s passing success rate was over 50%, and he was pushing the ball downfield (10.1 air yards per attempt).

I recognize the small sample size, but given the connection between the Vikings and SF’s head coaches, there’s a stylistic match to what Kevin O’Connell will expect out of the journeyman QB. If KOC was still having Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens sling it 30 times a game, Darnold should be in for a similar ride and feed Jefferson.

Besides, based on our tiered rankings, opening with any of those three WRs would be a welcomed approach.

I highlighted Tier 2 because Bijan Robinson was still available at the 1.07 (even though he routinely comes off the board one or two spots earlier).

He’d be the clear-cut choice (requiring an adjustment in my draft strategy), but I wanted to spotlight Jefferson as an optimal first-rounder. Between those two and Garrett Wilson, we’ve got a multiverse of rosters to build.

Team 1: Justin Jefferson
Team 2: Bijan Robinson
Team 3: Garrett Wilson

The (Rest of) the Early Rounds

I’ve said this before, but I prefer WR-heavy builds, especially in a league requiring a minimum of three. Plus, while I’m still in on Jefferson, I acknowledge his systemic risk. But I don’t want to draft a WR at the expense of another position if the value presents itself. I try to read the board before leaning into my biases.

Luckily, the rest of the league gave me an idea of what to do.

The RB thirst in managed leagues is real, folks.

Anyway, my choices were clear: Go with the flow or zig while everyone’s zagging. I usually go with the latter (like that one time I said drafting Hayden Hurst was a good idea). And I already wanted another WR. Again, I used our tiers to break the tie.

Every WR still on the board sits in Tier 3. The top RB, Derrick Henry, sits toward the top of Tier 4. Accordingly, Team 1 was able to complement Jefferson’s (slight) downside with the upside of a rookie WR with the best rookie WR score in our Super Model. However, the decision wasn’t as simple for Team 2.

Marvin Harrison Jr. as my WR2 is a more palatable situation than slotting him into my WR1 spot. I realize he has weak target competition. But a slow start isn’t out of the range of outcomes. Additionally, Chris Olave projects for one fewer target and resides in the same tier.

Without subjecting the roster to more risk, I can exit the first half of the early rounds with top-end players at the core positions.

I pressed my advantage at WR for Team 1 after the room gave me such a gift. To be clear, I’m not forcing a Zero RB build, but it’s on the table. Similarly, with Teams 2 and 3, I don’t have to apply any Hero RB concepts. For all three, my focus is reading the board and pulling what levers I can to keep my entire roster strong and not just one or two positions.

With this approach, I’ve got three strong cores through six rounds.

In the end, I did use a Hero RB strategy for Team 2. More RBs and a few passers were gone, so I kept adding to my WR corps. But I couldn’t pass up James Cook and Anthony Richardson in Team 3’s case.

However, each has its weaknesses, requiring some positional prioritization through the middle rounds.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

I’ll use Teams 1 and 2 as examples. Both have just one RB through six rounds. And 19 were gone by my pick at the 7.07. With the potential for multiple top-24 finishes declining by round, I’d rank my positional needs with rusher at the top.

RB
A onesie (QB or TE)
WR

I don’t want to pin myself into a click. That’s how you miss out on scooping value. I’ll show you an (extreme) example.

As I said, WR is my lowest priority, so this doesn’t fully apply, but check out who went directly afterward. Jake Ferguson fills a position I mentally ranked higher, and his profile meets many of the thresholds to target for a TE in the middle rounds. With those guardrails in mind, I can weave through the middle rounds.

I’ll be honest, waiting to grab Luke Musgrave for Team 3 has me feeling some type of way. On the one hand, Musgrave’s 70.2% route rate (before injury) was second-most among his class. He was ahead of Dalton Kincaid in both routes and air yard share. But Tucker Kraft’s emergence down the stretch left Musgrave in a timeshare. With Kraft likely sidelined at the start of camp, Musgrave has a shot to solidify his place in the middle class of TEs.

Regardless, each squad has optimal selections at each position. Plus, they have depth at the core spots. The 1.07 may look like you have to wait for everyone to take the good players. However, you’ll be able to find the gems you need to create a contending roster.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.07: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 7 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of) the Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY