Drafting from 1.08: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 8 pick

I hate going to the gym.

Well, let me take that back. I like the results, but the first few minutes before my workout and after my first set are the worst. I’m (getting) old. I can’t just pick up and go as if I were in my 20s. And it really doesn’t help there’s a taco joint right next to the gym.

All I need is a minute or two on the treadmill or a rep on the bench, and I’m good. I know I’ll be stiff for a minute, and my joints will insist they’ve suffered enough. But I just need to get past the first part. Drafting from the 1.08 has a similar vibe to it.

As the first seven players come off the board, a twinge of dread will hit you. All of the guys you wanted will be gone. Coincidentally, you’ll feel like the player drafted ninth overall is the guy you should’ve picked instead. To help, I’ll walk through what to expect in the first round, along with building a solid roster despite the weaker starting position.

The First Round

*Draft Settings: PPR, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)

Waiting over half the first round is like the bear pit scene in Anchorman. Your leaguemates take everyone from Christian McCaffrey to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and you immediately regret your decision to play fantasy football.

However, by using our Draft Champion Tool, you can get a feel for who’s likeliest to fall to you at the eight spot.

Admittedly, I used the default settings. But if you know your opponents lean more toward WRs early or want to build RB stables with their first few picks, there are options to force strategic concepts onto the bots. Regardless, two RBs and five WRs by the 1.08 seems reasonable. Now, let’s consider our selection.

I’ll highlight Bijan Robinson first for two reasons: he plays a different position than the other three, and he might not always be available at the 1.08. Selecting him sends us down a different decision tree for building a roster, so we’ll set him aside for now. The WRs are a (slightly) different story.

The Draft Assistant has Garrett Wilson as the top pick, but our projections indicate Puka Nacua will score more points. Even better, if you slide over to our tiered rankings (switch the position from Overall to WR), you get a third answer.

As I said in the intro, you’ll choose one of these three and think the next pick is better. But, for the sake of argument, I’ll make the case for Garrett Wilson.

Wilson has earned target shares of 25% and 29.8% in his two years as a starter. No other WR from his class has seen more looks. He was top 5 amongst receivers last season. Plus, over Aaron Rodgers’ last seven seasons in Green Bay, his top WR exceeded a 27% target share (a top-12 mark in '23) in four of them. And his lagging efficiency (1.55 and 1.85 YPRR) isn’t solely on him.

Wilson has ranked 11th-worst and fourth-worst in catchable target rate out of all WRs with more than 100 targets. Just one of his QBs (out of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Trevor Siemian, Mike White, and Chris Streveler) had a positive CPOE. With Rodgers being back, Wilson’s target stability and projected efficiency bump put him in line with his peers. But we can build a few teams with different starting points and see how the draft unfolds.

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Honestly, all three starts make me uneasy. A.J. Brown went from six straight contests over 100 yards to one through the rest of the regular season. Bijan requires a healthy Kirk Cousins. Everyone’s situation is shaky. But the second round is where we bolster our 1.08 decision. Again, we can use the draft tool to simulate the 1-2 turn to see what awaits us at the 2.05.

With each pick, I’m ticking names off the tiers in case anyone falls. Most results follow the market (like the example above). However, Team 3’s board presented a unique situation.

Jahmyr Gibbs slid to the mid-second when I already had Robinson. On the one hand, in a PPR league requiring at least three WRs each week, an RB-RB open runs counter to my preferred start. The flip side of the argument is I wouldn’t have to prioritize the position until the tail end of the middle rounds. This example highlights another reason for the importance of using tiers.

While Gibbs sits at the top of Tier 2, I could potentially nab three others from his group in the third round (Pacheco, Williams, or Etienne). I’d be able to address WR in that universe, too. Based on our projections, doing a quick 2v2 calculation lends credence to the idea of letting Gibbs slide.

Option 1 (projected PPR points): Gibbs (231.5) + Metcalf (216.5) = 448
Option 2: Aiyuk (225.8) + Etienne (220.3) = 446.1

At just 1.9 total projected points away from going with Gibbs, Option 2 provides a more flexible structure. I wouldn't be chasing WR for the remainder of the draft. Regardless, a mental exercise like this can help when posed with an uncommon board. The names available might force you down a suboptimal path (like having DK Metcalf or Malik Nabers as your WR1). With this approach in mind, my first three picks have me feeling a bit better about my chances.

I realize each squad only has a trio of starters. However, I want to emphasize being strategically open to anything. Team 2 looks like a Zero RB build, but it doesn’t have to be. Team 1 could apply Hero RB concepts or maintain balance. As a result, I could take detours at the onesie spots before the end of the early rounds.

I’d be a bit surprised to see De’Von Achane falling into the fourth, but it’s part of why I hammered being flexible earlier. Despite the quasi-Zero RB start, I could instantly switch tracks. Additionally, the 2v2 for Team 3 worked out well with high-end WRs to go with the strong RBs. As intended, every roster got stronger as the draft continued.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Once in the middle rounds, my primary focus is addressing any gaps in my team. By prioritizing needs, I can plug any leaks while reinforcing my assets at the core positions. Let’s use Team 1 as an example.

Missing: TE
Weak Points: RB
Priority: RB, TE > WR

Other than bye weeks, my first six picks shouldn’t leave their starter spots. However, their usage rates and team environments may not meet expectations. So, by identifying and ordering positions to target, I can weave a plan into the rankings and tiers. Accordingly, I added more structure to Team 1’s roster with the first few picks in the middle rounds.

Of course, your needs will change after each player you draft. I got James Conner in the seventh (dropping the immediate requirement for an RB), allowing me to shift my attention to TE. The eighth round didn’t present any options at value, so I added another WR. And after re-racking and stacking each team’s demands, we’ve got three teams ready to compete.

Yes, the teams ahead of you will start with a better player. That’s their advantage. The 1.08 allows you to build off your first pick faster. And with our rankings and tiers, any uncertainty from the first round will quickly dissipate as you build your squad.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.08: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 8 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.08: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 8 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

FantasyHQ

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY