Drafting from 1.01: Optimal fantasy draft strategy from the No. 1 pick

If I get the 1.01 in any draft, one of the first words that comes to mind is, “easy.”

My first pick requires little thought. If I consider passing on RB, every elite WR is available. But “easy” can be a double-edged sword.

It’s easy to forget about the week-to-week grind of redraft leagues after months of building (winning) best ball rosters. ADP differences and weekly roster needs make each pick, even an easy one like the 1.01, all the more critical. And, honestly, waiting 22 picks to make another move doesn’t sound so easy.

Regardless, the first pick is an advantage. But we need to maintain our edge at each turn. So, let’s build a roster from the 1.01 and find the optimal takeaways from each phase of the draft.

The Early Rounds

As I said before, my approach to the 1.01 is easy. Our rankers all agree. And the projections only have one other non-QB ahead of him. Christian McCaffrey was the only RB to handle over 50% of his team’s carries while also earning a +15% target share in ‘24. CMC had more rushing TDs than Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson combined and more receiving TDs than Puka Nacua.

McCaffrey’s opportunity (lacking backfield competition) mixed with an elite situation (SF having one of the most efficient offenses in the league) make the first pick a quick decision. However, a winning roster is made up of more than one player. Plus, we’ll need more than one at his position each week.

Fantasy Life’s ADP Grid illustrates the first sign we’re not in Best Ball Land anymore. Nine more rushers fly off the board compared to the comfy confines of Underdog. On the one hand, the shift gives us a reprieve from the WR avalanche plaguing the early rounds. Minus an injury, there are few ways CMC fails at his cost, so the need for an RB2 isn’t as pressing. But drafters can’t wield SF’s RB1 like a weapon for too long.

I used our 2024 projections as a proxy, and the trend still gives us the same takeaway as in years past: Projected points decline as ADP increases. It’s no secret, but it should change how we view our next five picks to get out of the early rounds. One conclusion using Best Ball Mania data can help reset our focus on managed leagues.

Rosters with one early QB or TE: 49.7% (usage rage in the playoffs)
Rosters with one early QB and TE: 23.7%

Of course, the best strategy is to only draft the good players. Then, any construction works. But over twice the number of drafts who only used one of their picks at either of the onesie positions (QB or TE) found themselves in the playoffs compared to those who took swings at both. And it’s not solely because they didn’t pick the right stack or get the right guys. The rest of their roster suffered.

Between RBs and WRs (and a FLEX), we have to start six non-onesies a week. We also have injuries, bye week, and the chaos of the NFL season to navigate. By only looking at one QB or TE, we’re maximizing our ability to adjust to the unknowns versus our entire season hinging on two players. Let’s look at a quick example.

Christian McCaffrey, Pick 1
DK Metcalf, Pick 24
De’Von Achane, Pick 25
Hollywood Brown, Pick 48
Mark Andrews, Pick 49
Diontae Johnson, Pick 72

I tried to adhere to ADP as much as possible to keep things realistic, but the main concepts are there. Through six picks, I have multiple starters at the core positions with an elite TE. I’m projecting more red-zone usage for Achane in his second year, but my WRs are either high-end target earners or connected to top-tier QBs. Another iteration could’ve been to draft back-to-back WRs at the 2/3 turn (I like Devonta Smith and Metcalf there) and wait to add my RB2 (e.g., Travis Etienne or Isiah Pacheco) at the end of the fourth.

Regardless, in just six picks, I’ve established the nucleus of my team. The early rounds have the highest potential for top scorers. Assuming I’m right, I want to keep those players in every week. With that framework in place, I can start to build around those picks in the middle rounds.

Mid-Round Approach

In truth, a lot of the excitement that comes with drafting fades in the middle rounds. The names aren’t as recognizable. There’s more thought required. “Strategery” takes priority. However, we need to take a look back at our past decisions before planning what to do next.

Let’s use the roster I built earlier as an example. As I mentioned, I have two starting RBs, three WRs and an elite TE. By doing a simple assessment, I’ve not only identified the strengths of my squad but its weaknesses: no QB, lower ceiling at WR relative to my leaguemates and a lack of depth at RB and WR.

The hole at signal-caller sticks out the most. I’ve missed out on Jalen Hurts’ upside with new OC Kellen Moore or Joe Burrow’s hopeful resurgence (please @God, one time). Regardless, history can tell us who to target after most of the Top 12 QBs are gone.

Since 2019, the average QB in Rounds 6-12 (min. 10 games) has been 17.3 PPG. Of the 183 drafted in this range, only 18 have scored at an above-average pace. It makes sense just seeing some of the names. But while we can’t find Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow in the 11th round, we can hunt for their traits even after building a strong roster. Of the 18 above-average QBs:

Only seven had a pass rate (sum of attempts and sacks divided by total plays) under 90%
All seven had an above-average scrambling rate (relative to their ADP) of 4% or higher
The other 11 supported at least two top-24 pass-catchers at their position

Simply put, the market is already telling us which QBs to target outside of the early rounds. Three San Francisco pass-catchers go before the sixth round. Jackson has a trio of skill players in the Top 100, too. Despite not having the same hype as their elite peers, we can find similar week-to-week ceilings in mid-round QBs.

Favorite Picks: Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence

Filling Out A Contender

We can apply a similar process for RBs and WRs to fill out our bench spots. However, here’s where we need to take the long view.

We’re going to be wrong about some of our preseason thoughts. Someone will get hurt (hopefully not one of your players). Another will fall out of favor with their coaching staff. And a blockbuster trade will have us all yelling. But the late rounds allow us to mitigate the chaos if we’re willing to make small bets on what we don’t know.

Ambiguous backfields: Offseason speculation on who will be a team’s backup can lead to false conviction. As a result, drafting an unknown player farther down the depth chart (Kyren Williams, 2022) with a late-round pick can pay dividends. The Broncos’ backfield is a good example for 2024.
Depth chart uncertainty: Teams use multiple WRs or TEs to lend credence to each of their utility as a weekly starter. I made the case for Dontayvion Wicks, but the Packers have three other WRs and two TEs with fantasy relevance. So, even if you don’t get the most expensive piece of an offense, having a piece can be valuable if things break your way (e.g., Romeo Doubs).
Rookies: Draft capital gives us a strong signal, but injuries or poor performances can put players in the spotlight sooner than expected. If the starter doesn’t have a lock on the gig, stashing their backup can either add depth or become a bargaining chip in trades down the road.

The lack of opportunity cost should give us more cause to swing for the fences instead of selecting known commodities. And with a process to find players with similar outlooks, our roster can stay ahead of the curve for the duration of the season.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.01: Optimal fantasy draft strategy from the No. 1 pick

The Early Rounds

Mid-Round Approach

Filling Out A Contender

More Pick-Specific Fantasy Draft Strategy