It looked like the Eagles were well on the way to defending their NFC crown after a blistering 10-1 start featured three consecutive wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills … and then they proceeded to lose six of their final seven, ending the year with an embarrassing 32-9 loss at the hands of the relatively lowly Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.

Can Jalen Hurts and company get back to partying like it's 2022 again? Let's start to answer this question by looking at a quick overview of the Eagles' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

• Head coach: Nick Sirianni (34-17 in 3 seasons with the Eagles)
• Offensive coordinator: Kellen Moore (65.1% pass-play rate in Los Angeles, 6th)
• Offseason arrivals: RB Saquon Barkley (3-years, $37.75 million), TE C.J. Uzomah (1-year, $1.377 million), WR Parris Campbell (1-year, $1.29 million), QB Kenny Pickett (trade)
• Offseason departures: QB Marcus Mariota (Commanders), RB D'Andre Swift (Bears), RB Boston Scott (free agent), RB Rashaad Penny (Panthers), WR Julio Jones (free agent), WR Olamide Zaccheaus (Commanders), WR Quez Watkins (Steelers), TE Jack Stoll (Giants)
• Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Clemson RB Will Shipley (4.127), Texas A&M WR Ainias Smith (5.152), Florida State WR Johnny Wilson (6.185)
• Reigning PFF offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 1, four of five

Sadly, that one missing lineman was an awfully important one in future Hall of Fame C Jason Kelce, who served as one-half of football's biggest short-yardage cheat code over the past few seasons.

Let's dive into the Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football outlook for 2024 and just how important the "tush push" has been for Hurts' fantasy value over the years.

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Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

• QB1: Jalen Hurts (FantasyLife consensus rank: QB2)
• QB2: Kenny Pickett

Hurts easily leads the NFL in both rush attempts (28, next-closest 22) and rushing TDs (22, next-closest 14) from the one-yard line over the past three seasons. This includes the top three individual seasons in carries from the doorstep of the end zone from any QB (13, 8, 7); 2023 Josh Allen (6) is the only other QB to register a single season with more than five such rush attempts during this span.

So, yeah: The tush push is pretty damn important to Hurts' success. Consider: He scored 11 rushing TDs from the one-yard line last season; his fantasy points per game without these goal-line plunges drops to 17.1 — a mark that would have been behind Russell Wilson and good for QB16 last season.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the ball during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Now, Hurts likely would have still accounted for some of those scores by way of passing or more traditional QB runs even without the assist from the tush push, but the point that he's far more reliant on rushing production than most stands. Just look at his fantasy points per game rank from purely passing numbers over the past three seasons:

Hurts fantasy points from only passing among 32 qualified QBs:

• 2023: 13.6 (QB19)
• 2022: 15.3 (QB11)
• 2021: 12.1 (QB26)

This isn't all on Hurts: The Eagles have operated the league's fourth-most run-heavy offense in terms of pass-play rate (56.2%) over the past three seasons; give their franchise QB credit for ranking seventh in both EPA per dropback (+0.139) and completion percentage over expected (+3.8%) even during a relatively down 2023 campaign.

Either way: Hurts owns three of the top-10 seasons ever in most QB rush attempts in a single season; the rushing volume is enough to sustain high-end fantasy heights even if a return to 2022 form as a passer fails to come to fruition — something that shouldn't be seen as impossible considering the continued presence of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as well as the addition of (hopefully) superior OC Kellen Moore.

Throw in the potential for Hurts' rushing yards per game to look a bit more like 2021 (52.3) and 2022 (50.7) vs. 2023 (35.6) when he was dealing with a bothersome knee injury as early as potentially Week 7, and it's tough to be overly bearish on Hurts' fantasy upside ahead of 2024.

Bottom line: Hurts (22.3) and Josh Allen (23.8) are the only QBs averaging north of 22 fantasy points per game over the past three seasons. Their goal line usage is incredibly unique to the position and accordingly puts them in a tier of their own in fantasy land, warranting third- to fourth-round treatment in standard one-QB formats.

Running Back

• RB1: Saquon Barkley (RB6)
• RB2: Will Shipley (RB59)
• RB3: Kenneth Gainwell (RB75)

Yes, peak Saquon Barkley was among the most electric playmakers in the NFL regardless of position.

Also yes, we haven't seen that version of him in quite some time.

A sprained ankle in Week 2 hardly helped Barkley attack 2023 with full health; sadly the former No. 2 overall pick has missed at least three games in four of his last five seasons.

However, it'd sure make a lot of sense if the Eagles' badass offensive line and Hurts' dual-threat prowess make life quite a bit easier when it comes to picking up yards efficiently on the ground. After all, only the Ravens (1.9) and Bills (1.8) have been as good as the Eagles (1.8) when it comes to rushing yards before contact per carry over the past three seasons.

Then again, this Eagles offensive environment hasn't been all that conducive to high-end fantasy success for RBs due to Hurts' tendencies to:

1. Scramble instead of checking down: Hurts has fed Eagles RBs just 246 total targets since taking over the starting job in 2021 — the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL.
2. Take control of the offense at the opponent's goal line: Eagles RBs rank 30th in carries from the one-yard line (10) over the past three seasons.

Overall, the Eagles have offered a bottom-five offensive environment in terms of expected RB PPR points per game over the past two seasons despite functioning as the NFL's fourth-ranked scoring offense during the same span. Opportunity rules all for RBs in fantasy land, and Philly simply hasn't gone out of their way to make life all that easy for their lead backs in Miles Sanders (RB37, RB21) and D'Andre Swift (RB24).

Intriguingly, Eagles RBs do in fact rank first in rush attempts from their opponent's 2- to 5-yard lines during this span; Barkley should get at least one opportunity to score when the Eagles get around the goal line — he just better take advantage of it.

Ultimately, Barkley does profile as the team's every-down workhorse back; it'd be surprising if he doesn't finish with around 300 combined carries and targets with a little help from the injury gods. This makes him worthy of mid-tier RB1 treatment alongside guys like Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams, who also aren't expected to carry that large of a fantasy-friendly pass-down role.

Clemson RB Will Shipley would likely split time with Gainwell should Barkley be forced out of action. Failure for either to seize full control of the RB2 job would leave them as fairly low-upside handcuff options considering each would have the same fantasy-friendly volume problems as Saquon. Neither is a priority at the end of drafts, although Shipley's demonstrated pass-catching ability in college earns him the slight nod.

Bottom line: Barkley's raw touch projection and assumption for at least decent efficiency make him tough to dispute as a mid-tier RB1, even if I've preferred drafting ascending young WRs like Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London in that range of drafts.

Wide Receiver

• WR1: A.J. Brown (WR8)
• WR2: DeVonta Smith (WR23)
• WR3: Parris Campbell
• WR4: Johnny Wilson
• WR5: Ainias Smith

Both AJB and Smith fetched large contract extensions this offseason, cementing them as Hurts' top-two pass-game options of the present and future.

And why not? Both receivers have ranked among the league's very best talents at the position since teaming up in 2022:

Brown and Smith among 77 WRs with 100-plus targets in 2022-23

• PFF receiving grade: Brown (91.4, 5th), Smith (81.7, 26th)
• Passer rating when targeted: Brown (111.3, 13th), Smith (113.1 (9th)
• Yards per reception: Brown (15.2, 11th), Smith (12.8, 39th)
• Yards per route run: Brown (2.56, 6th), Smith (1.89, 30th)
• Targets per route run: Brown (25%, 13th), Smith (20.3%, 34th)

Overall, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (5,879) join Brown and Smith (5,214) as the NFL’s only WR duos with over 5,000 combined receiving yards over the past two seasons. Not too shabby — and accordingly both AJB (WR8 in PPR points per game in 2022, WR8 in 2023) and Smith (WR14, WR20) have offered solid returns on investment to loyal fantasy managers in back-to-back seasons.

While the Eagles' run-first offense hasn't made life particularly fruitful for many (read: any) of the offense's other WRs, Hurts' willingness to condense the heavy majority of his targets around his top two dogs has provided both with fairly fantasy-friendly workloads. AJB (289 targets 2022-23) is certainly the No. 1 option ahead of Smith (244), but both players rank inside the position's top-16 most-targeted options over the past two seasons.

Nov 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrate a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

This was the second-most concentrated passing attack as far as WRs are concerned last season.

Teammate WRs with highest combined target share in 2023

1. Raiders (53.5% targets, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers)
2. Eagles (52%, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith)
3. Dolphins (50.5%, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle)

The addition of Kellen Moore should only mean more (ha!) potential pass-game opportunities. The ex-Cowboys play-caller proved plenty capable of enabling multiple high-end fantasy WRs in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb while not sacrificing an elite run game or overall offense. Neither Brown (WR7 ADP) nor Smith (WR23) are particularly cheap in early drafts, but we've seen both receivers meet that valuation without too much of a problem in back-to-back seasons.

None of these complementary options are guaranteed full-time roles, let alone fantasy-viable target shares. There are better late-round darts to throw than at these guys.

Bottom line: Brown and Smith are both young, talented ballers inside an offense that has proven willing to focus the heavy majority of their passing game on them. Each offers little in the way of red flags for drafters looking to add a stud WR inside the first few rounds of drafts.

Tight End

• TE1: Dallas Goedert (TE11)
• TE2: C.J. Uzomah
• TE3: Albert Okwuegbunam

Goedert turned 29 last January and still has never reached even 85 targets in a season. Of course, his problem in early years was the presence of target-hog TE Zach Ertz, and more recently the issue has been the injury bug, limiting the rising seventh-year veteran to 12 and 14 games over the past two seasons. The Eagles' aforementioned willingness to centralize their passing attack around Brown and Smith also hasn't helped matters.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a reception during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

And yet, Goedert continues to look the part of one of the league's better pass-catching options at the position. His efficiency numbers since becoming the team's full-time starting TE in 2022 are nothing short of great:

Goedert among 49 TEs with 50-plus targets 2022-23

• PFF receiving grade: 78.1 (No. 6)
• Passer rating when targeted: 107.8 (No. 15)
• Yards per reception: 11.3 (tied for No. 11)
• Yards per route run: 1.57 (No. 8)
• Targets per route run: 18% (No. 21)

Of course, that latter metric is the primary problem here: Goedert is the clear-cut No. 3 pass-game option inside of a run-first offense. Kudos to him for largely making the most out of his opportunities, but he simply doesn't have the same sort of gaudy target ceiling as guys like Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram, who all either 1.) have an outside chance of leading their team in targets, or at worst, 2.) profile as their team's 1.B pass-game option.

That said, the disparity between Goedert (TE11, pick 113.2 ADP) seems a bit wide next to guys like George Kittle (TE7, 67.9) and Jake Ferguson (TE9, 91.2), who also aren't exactly expected to breeze past 100 targets in 2024.

Bottom line: Goedert's borderline TE1 ADP is warranted, although his standing as the cheapest archetype in this range makes him a solid ninth- to 10th-round target for drafters who missed out on a more-pricey option at the position.

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 Season Prediction

Philly's end-of-season collapse certainly wasn't pretty, but we've also seen this offense more closely resemble an elite group for the better portion of the last two seasons. The loss of Kelce can't be overstated, although he did the franchise a favor by essentially selecting his own replacement in Cam Jurgens.

The defense should be in a better spot this year thanks to the addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio as well as the decision to add two secondary pieces inside of the draft's top-40 options in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

Ultimately, I like the Eagles to rebound and go OVER 10.5 wins (+100) and give the NFC East a different champion for the 20th year in a row.

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