New York Giants Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024
Ian Hartitz breaks down the New York Giants from a fantasy perspective, including how to project the new backfield and expectations for Malik Nabers's rookie season.
The New York Football Giants haven't captured an NFC East crown since 2011. Hell, their Wild Card win over the Vikings in 2022 marked their first and only playoff victory since…2011.
Last season's 6-11 finish was even worse on paper considering only the Commanders (-189) and Panthers (-180) had a lower point differential than the Giants (-141). The injury bug certainly didn't help matters, but this team looked pretty far away from being confused with an elite roster the last time we saw them play football.
But hey, that's what the offseason is for, right? Right?! Here's a quick overview of the Giants' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB, RB, WR, and TE) to this point:
- Head coach: Brian Daboll (15-18-1 in his two seasons with the Giants)
- Offensive coordinator: Mike Kafka (60.7% pass-play rate in New York, 16th)
- Offseason arrivals: RB Devin Singletary (three years, $16.5 million), QB Drew Lock (one year, $5 million), TE Chris Manhertz (one year, $1.4 million), WR Miles Boykin (one year, $1.3 million), WR Isaiah McKenzie (one year, $1.2 million), and TE Jack Stoll (one year, $1.1 million)
- Offseason departures: QB TyRod Taylor (Jets), RB Saquon Barkley (Eagles), RB Matt Breida (free agent), WR Sterling Shepard (free agent), and WR Parris Campbell (Eagles)
- Fantasy-relevant draft picks: LSU WR Malik Nabers (1.06), Penn State TE Theo Johnson (4.107), Purdue RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (5.166)
- Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 30, 2/5
Usually, offensive line continuity is a good thing, but that's with the assumption that said offensive line is, you know, good in the first place. That wasn't exactly the case for this group in 2023. Kudos to the Giants for having thrown some serious money at the position in free agency, even if it was surprising to see them not use a single one of their six draft picks on the group.
Of course, the primary question mark for this offense remains who will be under center and how well he'll play. Let's dive into that and more of the New York Giants fantasy football outlook for 2024…
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
New York Giants Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position
Quarterback
- QB1: Daniel Jones (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB29)
- QB2: Drew Lock
Before we get into Jones's pros and (mostly) cons as an NFL QB, it's important to realize just how bad his supporting cast has been since having entered the league in 2019.
We can get an idea of how good a QB's offensive environment is by averaging a team's PFF rushing, receiving, pass-blocking, and run-blocking grades (everything except passing). It's not a picture-perfect formula, but the results at least match the eye test in New York. Here's how the Giants have ranked in Supporting Cast Rating during Jones's tenure:
- 2023: No. 32
- 2022: No. 21
- 2021: No. 30
- 2020: No. 31
- 2019: No. 23
Whether it was the often mediocre offensive line, unproven and usually meh group of pass-catchers, or even a banged-up and largely past-his-prime Barkley, it's safe to say that Jones has been dealt one of the worst hands of any QB since New York drafted him with the No. 6 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.
Oct 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) attempts a pass agianst the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, there's just one other problem here: Jones has also been pretty, pretty bad when it comes to his own passing performance. Kudos to the soon-to-be 27-year-old veteran for having improved over the first four seasons of his career, but it's hard to overstate how much of a disaster his six games in 2023 really were.
Here's his expected points added (EPA) per dropback and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) since he entered the NFL:
- 2023: -0.211 EPA per dropback (No. 44), +0.3% CPOE (No. 21)
- 2022: +0.114 (No. 14), +2.3% (No. 11)
- 2021: +0.012 (No. 29), -0.8% (No. 26)
- 2020: -0.019 (No. 37), -2.2% (No. 36)
- 2019: -0.021 (No. 34), -1.9% (No. 31)
Jones has spent the majority of his career functioning as a bad QB in a bad offense, but there were actually some highs in 2022. And that's only when considering his passing metrics. Credit to the artist known as "Vanilla Vick" for joining Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as the only QBs who averaged over seven fantasy points per game (PPG) from pure rushing production in 2022 (what a wild sentence to type).
That rushing upside helped Jones produce as the QB8 in fantasy PPG that season, so don't forget that he has a higher demonstrated NFL ceiling in fantasy land than guys like Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa. That sweet, sweet rushing upside keeps Jones a viable fantasy option heading into 2024, although Jones may run a bit less in 2024 coming off last season's season-ending ACL injury and an ongoing neck issue that reportedly caused significant lack of strength in his left arm.
A potentially improved offensive line (they can't get much worse) and the addition of Nabers should also help Jones's passing numbers as long as he can stay healthy/good enough to start all 17 games.
It's worth noting, though, that some analysts such as Daniel Jeremiah have given credence to the idea that Drew Lock has a chance to win the starting job in New York. That scenario might actually be a net positive for the rest of the Giants' offense for fantasy purposes due to Lock's lack of rushing attempts even if the overall pass-game efficiency would likely remain low.
Bottom line: Jones's ongoing issues regarding his supporting cast and health concerns don't look fully fixed heading into 2024, which makes him tough to trust even as a late-round dart.
Please don't go out of your way to land Jones in fantasy land because he's more of a potential early-season waiver wire add if we see him healthy or simply a stacking buddy with Nabers very late in best ball drafts.
Running Back
- RB1: Devin Singletary (Fantasy Life consensus rank: RB32)
- RB2: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB58)
- RB3: Eric Gray
Yes, peak Saquon Barkley was far better at football than Singletary has ever been, but that's also true when comparing Barkley to most other RBs in the league. The man was absolutely lethal before he suffered some unfortunate early-career knee injuries.
That said, Singletary has quietly been the more efficient rusher over the course of their respective careers. Part of this certainly was due to having played on some strong Bills and Texans teams compared to the Giants' aforementioned piss-poor offensive environment, but even so: Sheesh!
Here are how Singletary and Barkley's career-average metrics stack up against each other thus far:
- PFF rushing grade: Singletary (90.0), Barkley (88.7)
- Yards per carry: Singletary (4.5), Barkley (4.3)
- Yards after contact per carry: Singletary (3), Barkley (3)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: Singletary (0.2), Barkley (0.15)
- Explosive run play rate: Singletary (12.4%), Barkley (10.5%)
More surprising is the fact that both the Bills and Giants were top-five offenses in yards before contact per carry (1.6) from 2018 to 2022. On top of that, Buffalo (26th) actually had a lower PFF run-blocking grade than New York (21st) during that stretch.
Now, Barkley has been by far the superior pass-catcher, and he also faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a higher percentage than Singletary (38% vs. 28%) while handling more overall volume. So don't think that this is an assertion that Singletary is a better RB than Barkley. However, could Singletary provide 90% of Barkley's production at a fraction of the cost?
Indianapolis Colts linebacker E.J. Speed (45) works to stop a run by Houston Texans running back Devin Singletary (26) on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Photo Credit: Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
That's the bet the Giants are making. As such, Singletary suddenly profiles as arguably the cheapest potential workhorse RB in fantasy football this year. This match also wasn't exactly thrown together as a last resort:
- Singletary's three-year, $16.5 million deal includes $9.5 million in guaranteed money, which is more than what Derrick Henry got from the Ravens.
- The ex-Bills/Texans RB reunites with Brian Daboll, who was his offensive coordinator in Buffalo.
- The Giants' only additional backfield move of note was selecting WR-turned-RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the fifth round of the NFL Draft.
Day 3 picks seldom produce elite results in fantasy land. Tracy did indeed pull off some cool sh*t on his 146 collegiate carries, but it's also tough to consider a 24-year-old Day 3 rookie lacking much overall experience at the position as much of a threat to Singletary. Singletary projects to be the clear lead back in New York considering the veteran's aforementioned familiarity with the head coach and sizable contract.
No RB played at least 90% of their offense's snaps more than Barkley (x5) last season. While Singletary probably won't be the world's most efficient or high-scoring RB on a likely bottom-10 scoring offense, it's hard to ignore the potential for him to see 15-plus total touches (carries and targets) each week. In fact, Fantasy Life projections have just two RBs racking up 230-plus total touches with an average draft position (ADP) in the 10th round or later:
- Singletary (RB35, pick No. 114.5 overall)
- Ezekiel Elliott (RB39, pick No. 127.8 overall)
Bottom line: Singletary has the "betting on just volume" archetype of a dead-zone RB, but he's currently being drafted five-plus rounds past similar prototypes like Travis Etienne and Rachaad White.
In a zero RB or hero RB draft, both Singletary and Tracy are viable options in the double-digit rounds. In fact, all the Giants are potentially undervalued at their respective ADPs even if there are concerns about their overall offensive upside.
Wide Receiver
- WR1: Malik Nabers (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR20)
- WR2: Wan'Dale Robinson (WR77)
- WR3: Jalin Hyatt (WR81)
- WR4: Darius Slayton (WR97)
- WR5: Isaiah Hodgins
I penned a more complete pre-draft scouting report on Nabers already, but here's the gist: The man is fast and routinely put the ever-living fear of God into opposing defensive backs during his time at LSU.
Nobody had more receptions of 20-plus yards (34) than Nabers in 2023, so he deserves to be considered in the same tier alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. even if Maserati ultimately was selected a few spots earlier in the NFL Draft.
Of course, not every highly-drafted WR takes the league by storm right out of the gate. Here's how rookie WRs drafted in the top-10 overall picks of their respective drafts have produced in Year 1 dating back to 2010:
- Ja'Marr Chase: 81-1,455-13 (WR5 in PPR PPG)
- Garrett Wilson: 83-1,103-4 (WR30)
- Amari Cooper: 72-1,070-6 (WR27)
- A.J. Green: 65-1,057-7 (WR16)
- Mike Evans: 68-1,051-12 (WR13)
- Jaylen Waddle: 104-1,015-6 (WR15)
- Sammy Watkins: 65-982-6 (WR32)
- Julio Jones: 54-959-8 (WR12)
- DeVonta Smith: 64-916-5 (WR39)
- Drake London: 72-866-4 (WR45)
- Justin Blackmon: 64-865-5 (WR39)
- Tavon Austin: 40-418-4 (WR48)
- Corey Davis: 34-375-0 (WR76)
- Mike Williams: 11-95-0 (WR128)
- Kevin White: 0-0-0 (lol)
- John Ross: 0-0-0 (lol)
Nabers's best path to success could be similar to Waddle's back in 2021, as he worked as the undisputed No. 1 pass-game option in a limited Dolphins offense that rarely attempted to stretch the field. This isn't to suggest that Nabers (or Waddle, obviously) is incapable of winning deep, but Jones does join recently retired Matt Ryan as the only two QBs with an average depth of target (aDOT) of less than seven yards over the past two seasons.
Malik Nabers 8 dives for a ball as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023. Photo Credit: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
Simply looking at the overall numbers from Daboll's No. 1 pass-game option doesn't paint a pretty picture in recent years, as no Giants have managed to reach even 80 targets in a single season since 2022. Of course, Daboll was in charge of the same Bills offense that force-fed Stefon Diggs in 2020 (166 targets) and 2021 (164 targets) albeit he had a better QB under center (to put it lightly).
Ultimately, Fantasy Life projections have Nabers tabbed for 131 targets in 2024, 14th among WRs. This is why it's tough to complain about the rookie's WR19 ADP. The concerns about middling efficiency could be mitigated by pure volume, something that other WRs being drafted in the same ADP range like Jaylen Waddle, D.K. Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith may not see on teams with more crowded pass-catching rooms.
I have a harder time getting excited about any other Giants WRs considering that they may all share snaps in 3WR sets. It'd make a lot of sense if Wan'Dale Robinson's designed touches out of the slot are given to Nabers this season while Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins all split time as complementary field-stretching outside options on an offense with the league's most deep-ball adverse passing game.
Bottom line: Nabers's raw talent and potential for high target volume make him deserving of his low-end WR2 ADP even if a future QB change is probably needed to unlock his full fantasy ceiling.
Beyond Nabers, there's not much to be excited about considering that the Giants have thrown for the fifth-fewest yards (6,783) and TDs (32) in the NFL over the past two seasons. If I had to pick another Giants WR, Slayton would be my preferred last-round dart if you're feeling frisky.
Tight End
- TE1: Darren Waller? (Fantasy Life consensus rank: TE25)
- TE2: Theo Johnson (TE36)
- TE3: Daniel Bellinger
It remains to be seen whether Waller will retire, although ESPN's Jordan Raanan has reported that the Giants are operating as if he will.
Hilariously the NFL's second highest-paid TE in terms of annual dollars, the Giants could choose to move on from Waller anyway with a post-June 1 release. This would save them $11.6 million against the cap while leaving "just" $2.5 million in dead money.
New York Giants tight end Darren Waller (12) goes up over Buffalo Bills cornerback TAron Johnson (7) but can t make the catch on the last play of the game the would have won the game for New York. Instead the Bills held on to win 14-9 Photo Credit: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
Waller will turn 32 years old in September and averaged a career-low 10.6 yards per reception in 12 games last season. There were a few highs (two games of 8-86-0 and 7-98-1) before he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 8, but that was as this offense's de facto No. 1 pass-game option, something that likely won't continue in 2024 with Nabers in town.
And that's if Waller were to decide to keep playing football at all. Ultimately, he's played just 11, nine, and 12 games over the past three seasons, respectively. Clearly, motivation is in question as well.
And oh yeah, the Giants decided to use a fourth-round pick on athletic freak Theo Johnson, which could lead to more of a committee approach at the TE position in 2024 regardless of Waller's decision.
Bottom line: Waller seems more likely to retire than not. Even if he were to continue playing, he'd only be a wishful low-end TE2.
If Waller were to call it quits, the Giants would likely lean on multiple players at TE in any given week, likely rendering all parties involved as non-viable fantasy options. That said, I do like the idea of betting on Johnson's profile with a late-round rookie pick in dynasty formats.
New York Giants 2024 Season Prediction
The Giants' 6.5-win total at BetMGM reflects the reality that nobody is really expecting much of an improvement from them in 2024. Playing a third-place schedule will help, but New York will once again face heading into Sundays with a question mark at QB.
Maybe the addition of stud EDGE Brian Burns can help turn the league's reigning 26th-ranked scoring defense into a strength, but consider me doubtful. Give me the under on 6.5 wins for a franchise that has failed to clear this mark in six of the last seven seasons.
You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
More 2024 NFL Team Previews
- Dallas Cowboys fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Washington Commanders fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Buffalo Bills fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Miami Dolphins fantasy football outlook for 2024
- New York Jets fantasy football outlook for 2024
- New England Patriots fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Detroit Lions fantasy football outlook for 2024
- Green Bay Packers fantasy football outlook for 2024
