Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

The Lions captured the NFC North title last season for the first time … ever! That's right: Their previous divisional crown back in 1993 was in the now-defunct NFC Central; we are truly living in unprecedented times when it comes to witnessing the Lions function as anyone's idea of a great football team.

While every team will obviously look different in 2024 than last year, the Lions are fairly unique in their lack of overall turnover on offense. A quick overview of the Lions' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Head coach: Dan Campbell (24-26-1 in 3 seasons with the Lions)
Offensive coordinator: Ben Johnson (57.1% pass-play rate in Detroit, 25th)
Offseason arrivals: None
Offseason departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater (retired), WR Josh Reynolds (Broncos), TE Anthony Firkser (free agent)
Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Utah RB Sione Vaki (4.132)
Reigning PFF o-line rank and returning starters: No. 2, 4 of 5

Maintaining the team's big, badass offensive front will be essential to continued success on offense — especially after the Lions decided to make their franchise QB a MUCH richer man.

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

QB1: Jared Goff (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB17)
QB2: Hendon Hooker

Only Joe Burrow ($55M) now makes more money on an annual basis than Mr. Goff ($53M) after Detroit signed up to pay him $212 million across the next four years — including a whopping $170 million guaranteed.

While nobody can deny Goff rode the struggle bus for most of 2019 to 2021, he's been anyone's idea of a truly great QB over the past two seasons:

Goff among 36 QBs with 500-plus dropbacks over the last two seasons

EPA per dropback: +0.173 (No. 8)
PFF pass grade: 81.2 (No. 13)
Passer rating: 98.5 (No. 6)
Adjusted completion rate: 78% (No. 5)
Yards per attempt: 7.5 (No. 8)

Now, Goff hasn’t been perfect. His home/away splits are pretty alarming, and things have also gone south pretty quickly when opposing defenses have been able to pressure him.

But lucky for him: Detroit has managed to put together one of the best offensive environments in the entire NFL.

We can get an idea of how good a QB's supporting cast is by averaging a team's PFF rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grades (everything except passing). It's not a picture-perfect formula (what is?), but the results demonstrate just how cozy this Lions offense has become in fantasy land in recent years.

Lions rank in Supporting Cast Rating:

2019: No. 18
2020: No. 18
2021: No. 22
2022: No. 9
2023: No. 2

Throw in one of the league’s best play-callers Ben Johnson and ever-aggressive head coach Dan Campbell, and this sure looks like a group once again poised to score PLENTY of real-life and (more importantly) fantasy points again in 2024.

Of course, Goff needs this sort of high-end supporting cast to maintain his upside QB2 standing in fantasy land due to the ongoing reality that there's zero rushing floor here. While the Lions have posted back-to-back fifth-place finishes in terms of scoring offense, Goff has worked as "just" the QB13 (16.8 fantasy points per game) in the same tier as guys like Trevor Lawrence (16.9), Tua Tagovailoa (16.7) and Geno Smith (16.6).

There's a certain comfort in having someone like Goff as your fantasy QB; the potential to clear 4,500 passing yards and 30 TDs through the air is especially appealing in formats that reward more than four points per passing score. Still, this was the league's fifth-most run-heavy offense in non-garbage time situations last season; Goff maintains a scary-low floor in fantasy land when he's not able to operate with upper-tier efficiency.

Bottom line: Goff (QB16, pick 121.4 ADP) is a bargain version of Joe Burrow (QB7, 73.1) and Brock Purdy (QB12, 103), but then again guys like Matthew Stafford (QB19, 143.4) and Baker Mayfield (QB21, 157.7) look like discount versions of him. Ultimately, Goff is a rock-solid second-QB addition in most fantasy formats and should be prioritized in the middle rounds on best ball teams that land the Lions' WR1 or TE1 early; otherwise, his lack of a league-winning ceiling doesn't make him someone I'm overly concerned with coming away with in more drafts than not.

Running Back

RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4)
RB2: David Montgomery (RB19)
RB3: Craig Reynolds
RB4: Sione Vaki

Wild but true: Gibbs and Montgomery are both quite good at running the football.

Yards per carry: Gibbs (5.2), Montgomery (4.6)
Yards over expected per carry: Gibbs (+0.4), Montgomery (+0.3)
Yards after contact per carry: Gibbs (3), Montgomery (3)
Missed tackles forced per carry: Gibbs (0.22), Montgomery (0.21)
Explosive runs per carry: Gibbs (15.6%), Montgomery (10.9%)
8+ defenders in the box: Gibbs (16%), Montgomery (21%)

Yes, Gibbs was more efficient in most metrics, but as the last note indicates: Defenses were generally more aware of the run threat when Montgomery was in the game. The Lions' "thunder" accordingly achieved a first-down or TD on a higher percentage of his runs (27.5% vs. 23.7%) than the "lightning" complement.

Also yes, Gibbs (1.1 yards per route run) was certainly the more dynamic receiving threat compared to Montgomery (0.77). If anything, it was surprising to not see the Lions lean into this more; Gibbs had more than five targets in just two of his final nine games after reaching that threshold in seven of his first nine contests of the season.

Good news, Gibbs truthers: Lions GM Brad Holmes has already hinted the rising second-year talent's role should increase this season — particularly in the passing game.

Dec 16, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs with the football against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

This phenomenon is pretty important to Gibbs paying off his current RB4 (pick 12) ADP, as the Lions were more than content to split work between their two backs when each were healthy throughout 2023.

Lions RB usage in Weeks 10-NFC Championship:

Snaps: Gibbs (53%), Montgomery (44%)
Rush attempts: Gibbs (41%), Montgomery (50%)
Routes: Gibbs (52%), Montgomery (32%)
Targets: Gibbs (13%), Montgomery (5%)
PPR points/game: Gibbs (16.7), Montgomery (13.6)

Now, Gibbs' average of 16.7 PPR points per game would have been good for RB7 status during the regular season; he's more than explosive enough to produce RB1-level results despite an RB2-esque workload. A similar sentiment is true for Montgomery, whose numbers come out to RB19 status when looking at the rest of the league.

This is truly the most fantasy-friendly offense in the league when it comes to the RB position: Detroit has ranked fourth, second and third in expected RB PPR points per game over the past three seasons thanks in large part to their RBs handling the NFL's most carries inside the five-yard line and seventh-most total targets.

Gibbs might have to work a bit harder to get his TDs most of the time; just realize there is more than enough meat on the bone for both RBs to eat (again) in 2024. After all, an average of two teams have enabled multiple top-24 RBs in PPR points per game per year over the past decade — and the Lions have accomplished this each of the past two seasons.

Bottom line: This is a condensed two-RB committee with a pocket QB behind a badass offensive line in one of the league's highest-scoring offenses. While Gibbs boasts higher week-to-week upside when both backs are healthy, each is an injury to the other away from weekly upside RB1 treatment. The answer to who to target between Gibbs (RB4, pick 12 ADP) and Montgomery (RB19, 74) at cost: Yes.

Wide Receiver

WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR4)
WR2: Jameson Williams (WR52)
WR3: Kalif Raymond (WR92)
WR4: Donovan Peoples-Jones

Our one true Sun God got PAID this offseason, as St. Brown ($30.002 million) now only trails A.J. Brown ($32 million) on an annual basis.

And guess what: The man deserves every penny. The former fourth-round pick has been one of the game's most productive pass-catchers since entering the league in 2021:

St. Brown among 107 WRs with 100-plus targets 2021-23:

PFF receiving grade: 91.7 (No. 7)
Receptions: 315 (No. 5)
Receiving yards: 3,588 (No. 8)
Receiving TDs: 21 (No. 13)
Yards per route run: 2.27 (tied for No. 10)
Targets per route run: 26% (No. 5)
PPR points per game: 16.9 (No. 11)

"Slot merchant" critics should know that St. Brown actually played more total snaps out wide (592) than in the slot (587) last season. Whether he's lined up in the slot, out wide, or even the backfield: All the Sun God knows how to do is make plays, and he happens to find himself inside one of the league's better-schemed offenses with minimal target competition. You don't need more than one hand to count the number of WRs worthy of going ahead of him in fantasy drafts this season.

Jan 21, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) comes down with the touchdown in the end zone making the score 31-17 as Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Zyon McCollum (27) tries to stop him during second half in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Seals-USA TODAY Sports

As for the rest of the Lions' WRs…

Jameson Williams: The rising third-year receiver certainly flashed as a deep threat and with some solid YAC in 2023, but at the end of the day: Williams has just 464 total yards and four scores across 18 regular season games since being drafted with the No. 12 overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Kalif Raymond: Is truly good at football despite being relegated to more of a part-time role throughout most of his career due to his diminutive size (5-foot-9, 162 pounds). He didn't register a single game with a snap rate north of 50% in 2023.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: Flashed as a deep threat during his time in Cleveland, but played a total of just 83 offensive snaps in 11 games with Detroit. His one-year, $2 million extension isn't exactly starter money.

Ultimately, the departure of Josh Reynolds suddenly leaves the Lions without their second-most used WR (64 targets, 70.6% regular-season snap rate) from 2023. It sure looks like Williams will be relied on as a full-time starter for the first time in his career; here's to hoping the Injury (and gambling) Gods mind their own business this year.

Bottom line: St. Brown is deserving of being the fifth overall pick in fantasy drafts. I'm also buying Williams at his affordable WR48 (pick 97.3) ADP; his ceiling is as an explosive WR2 inside one of the game's best offenses, while the floor is closer to where he's currently priced as a boom-or-bust WR4/5 type.

Tight End

TE1: Sam LaPorta (TE1)
TE2: Brock Wright
TE3: James Mitchell

All LaPorta did as a rookie was put forward one of the position's best Year 1 performances … ever.

Overall, the rookie TE somehow managed to outscore Travis Kelce in raw PPR points (225.4 vs. 219.4) over the first 17 weeks of the season. Yes, LaPorta has benefited from playing an extra game. Also yes, he’s out-scoring Travis f*cking Kelce!

Reminder: Kelce has finished with the position’s most total PPR points in six of seven years coming into the season. Mark Andrews … and now LaPorta are quite literally the only two TEs who have not dated Taylor Swift and still managed to lead the position in fantasy points since 2015. Not a bad debut!

Sixth in yards per route run (1.76) and third in passer rating when targeted (111.9) among 24 TEs with at least 50 targets last season: Good things happened when LaPorta was on the field last season, and he accordingly was fed a target on a whopping 23.3% of his routes — the position's third-highest mark behind only Trey McBride and T.J. Hockenson.

Current Fantasy Life Projections only have McBride (120) and Kelce (113) seeing more total pass-game opportunities than LaPorta (112). Throw in the Lions' aforementioned cozy offensive environment and potential for LaPorta to, you know, get better during his second year in the NFL, and it's hard to argue with those who want to crown him as this year's overall TE1.

Bottom line: While I don't believe LaPorta (TE1, pick 28.9 ADP) deserves to be going so far ahead of Kelce (TE2, 38.3), McBride (TE3, 44.7), Dalton Kincaid (TE4, 49.4) and (especially) Mark Andrews (TE5, pick 52.7), he's a perfectly fine bet to make as this year's TE1 thanks to the reality that we're talking about an ascending second-year talent in a great offense who is fully expected to breeze past the 100-target mark.

Detroit Lions 2024 Season Prediction

While the Lions may have been content to largely re-rack their high-scoring offense, they added two corners inside the draft's top two rounds, traded for Bucs CB Carlton Davis and acquired multiple potential difference-makers on the line of scrimmage like DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport.

It's tough to argue with the Lions' status as NFC North favorites based on their on-paper roster. Give me OVER 10.5 wins for a proven great offense with more continuity than most attached to a defense that made the sort of personnel decisions to warrant the idea that a major improvement could be on the way.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Detroit Lions 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Players Mentioned in this Article

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Detroit Lions 2024 Season Prediction

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

More 2024 NFL Team Previews