Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Three consecutive 12-5 regular seasons have sadly only afforded Cowboys nation one single playoff victory. That said, the offense has been nothing short of magnificent in fantasy land along the way, as a healthy version of Dak Prescott has proven capable of leading a top-tier scoring unit on an annual basis in recent years.

Of course, 2024 is far from guaranteed to look anything like 2021-23. A quick overview of the Cowboys' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Head coach: Mike McCarthy (42-25 in four seasons with the Cowboys)
Offensive coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer (61.3% pass-play rate in Dallas, 13th)
Offseason arrivals: RB Ezekiel Elliott (one-year, $3 million), RB Royce Freeman (one-year, $1.29 million)
Offseason departures: RB Tony Pollard (Titans), WR Michael Gallup (Raiders)
Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Southeast Missouri State WR Ryan Flournoy (6.216)
Reigning PFF offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 8, 3 out of 5

Nothing too different, although an offensive line that was already more good than great will likely now need to lean on multiple first-year starters. Here's to hoping 33-year-old perennial All-Pro G Zack Martin has enough gas in the tank to keep holding down the fort.

Let's dig into all of the Cowboys' fantasy football outlook for 2024 with their fantasy-relevant options and get a feel for what next season has to offer.

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

QB1: Dak Prescott (FantasyLife consensus rank: QB9)
QB2: Cooper Rush
QB3: Trey Lance

Dak and the Cowboys have been lighting up scoreboards for the better part of the last half-decade in a manner that most offenses can only dream of achieving:

Cowboys points per game 2019-2023

2019: 27.1 (No. 6)
2020 pre-Dak injury: 32.6 (No. 2)
2021: 31.2 (No. 1)
2022 post-Dak injury: 32.5 (No. 1)
2023: 29.9 (No. 1)

This has naturally led to a ton of fantasy success for loyal Prescott fantasy managers, as he's posted QB3, QB1, QB8, QB14 and most recently QB5 finishes in fantasy points per game during this stretch. Overall, only Josh Allen (22.9), Lamar Jackson (22.2) and Patrick Mahomes (21.8) have averaged more fantasy points per game than Prescott (20.2) among all signal-callers with at least 16 starts since 2019.

Last year specifically Dak ranked second in EPA per dropback (+0.245) and sixth in completion percentage over expected (+3.9%). There really weren't many (any?) QBs playing better football for large portions of the 2023 season; Prescott was more than deserving to be in the MVP conversation and deserves to be included in any top-five, let alone top-10, discourse surrounding the position's best real-life players at the moment.

While Father Time is indeed undefeated, and Dak turns 31 in July, QBs don't fall off in fantasy land during their 30s the same way as other positions. There isn't much of a logical reason to believe Prescott's physical ability as both a thrower or rusher is due to fall off a cliff in 2024.

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass in the first quarter against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, the assumption that Dallas will again field one of the NFL's top-10 scoring offenses bodes well for Prescott's chances at once again turning in a QB finish in fantasy land: 68% of top-10 scoring offenses have produced a QB1 in fantasy land in terms of fantasy points per game over the past decade of action.

Then again, since 2000 roughly five of each season's top-10 scoring offenses repeat the following year. This sure looks like Dak's worst skill-position group in half a decade (although 2022 is close), easily his worst supporting run game, and the typically great offensive line will be breaking in two first-year starters.

Don't be surprised if this group underwhelms relative to recent finishes due to the offensive line turnover and lack of high-end skill-position weaponry outside of Lamb. Fellow pocket passers like C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff certainly seem to be in better positions in terms of available weaponry; I'm far more bearish on Dak's 2024 upside after realizing just how little he has to work with at the moment.

Bottom line: The lack of high-end rushing ability these days keeps Dak out of the position's top-three conversation in fantasy land, but it's very difficult to rank him outside the top 12 thanks to his high-end combination of efficiency and consistency in recent years.

Running Back

RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (RB35)
RB2: Rico Dowdle (RB48)
RB3: Deuce Vaughn
RB4: Royce Freeman

Maybe Jerry Jones' "All in" offseason approach nets the team another RB in the future via trade, but for now the starting job seems to be between this uninspiring foursome.

While Zeke didn’t seem COMPLETELY washed last season (Fun fact: Elliott posted a faster top speed than Tony Pollard!), the former No. 4 overall pick has certainly been on a downward trend as of late:

2018: +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry (No. 17 among qualified RBs)
2019: +0.4 (No. 12)
2020: +0.03 (No. 32)
2021: -0.19 (No. 31)
2022: -0.34 (No. 43)
2023: -0.39 (No. 43)

Don’t expect a workhorse role for the soon-to-be 29-year-old veteran, but Elliott does profile as the most likely goal-line option inside the NFL’s reigning No. 1-ranked scoring offense. There’s potential for TD-dependent RB3 usage here, particularly if the Cowboys refrain from making any relevant trades at the position between now and Week 1.

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) spikes the ball after scoring a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Only the Lions (70), Colts (59) and Eagles (57) have given their RBs more carries inside the five-yard line than the Cowboys (55) over the past three seasons. Reminder: Zeke averaged just 3.8 yards per carry during his last season in Dallas while contributing essentially nothing to the passing game … and still finished as the RB22 in PPR points per game on the back of 12 TDs — nine of which came from inside the five-yard line.

And guess what? Zeke was even worse last year, but did you know:

Elliott's rushing efficiency metrics were better than Josh Jacobs across the board.
Saquon Barkley and Zeke averaged the same amount of missed tackles forced per carry.
Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon averaged the same amount of yards after contact per carry as Elliott.

Nobody is (or at least should be) arguing that Zeke is still even a "good" NFL RB, but the same numbers used to paint that picture are also true for fellow veterans going well above him in fantasy drafts … mostly because of fantasy managers (understandably) simply being willing to follow that sweet, sweet volume.

Few RBs come as cheap as Elliot with an expectation of 230-plus carries and targets. In fact, Fantasy Life projections have just two RBs meeting this mark with an average draft position of Round 10 or later:

Devin Singletary (RB35, pick 114.5)
Zeke (RB39, pick 127.8)

Dowdle is the other late-round dart worth throwing here. The former undrafted free agent has just 113 career touches to his name but flashed in 2023 — particularly in the passing game, where he posted top-10 marks at the position in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35). It's unlikely Rico ever seizes full control of the backfield; just realize double-digit combined carries and targets per game inside a likely top-10 scoring offense could go a long way in fantasy land.

Bottom line: Zeke is a volume-based RB3 option who is only as cheap as he is because the fantasy community seems to hold his inefficiency more against him than other fellow elderly veterans at the position. Don't go crazy — but a double-digit round ADP is more than reasonable for a (bad) starter expected to breeze past the 200-touch mark. Dowdle is a solid enough late-round handcuff, although it's far from a given that he'd step into an every-down role should Elliott miss any time.

Wide Receiver

WR1: CeeDee Lamb (FantasyLife consensus rank: WR1)
WR2: Brandin Cooks (WR60)
WR3: Jalen Tolbert
WR4: KaVontae Turpin

Lamb snatched the fantasy WR1 crown from Tyreek Hill thanks to a blistering stretch run that featured him scoring or gain 100-plus yards in his final 12 regular season games.

And guess what: Lamb looked good doing it.

Nobody in the NFL saw more total targets (179), while the Cowboys also found a way to give the engine of their offense 14 carries on the ground (Lamb has low-key always looked comfortable playing RB). It's simply hard to be overly pessimistic about the 25-year-old talent crashing back to reality when 200-plus targets and rush attempts are in his reasonable projected range of outcomes.

This is especially true considering the manner in which the Cowboys feature Lamb. His route tree charts resemble a National Geographic maze; Mike McCarthy and company do a great job consistently freeing up the reigning first-team All-Pro through motion and usage out of the slot.

Even if you believe someone like Hill or Justin Jefferson is a better overall WR talent, it's tough to argue with Lamb's overall fantasy profile when also considering his lack of target competition and proven QB under center. Lamb is as much of a sure thing as the first round of fantasy drafts has to offer (yes, I just knocked on wood after typing that).

The bigger question is whether or not Cooks can take a step forward as the now unquestioned No. 2 WR with Michael Gallup out of the picture. Thirty-one in September, Cooks averaged a nine-year low in yards per reception (12.2) last season despite scoring the second-most TDs of his career (8). This combination surprisingly made him one of the more TD-dependent WRs in fantasy land:

Highest percentage of fantasy production from TDs among top-50 fantasy WRs in 2023:

Cooks had five or fewer targets in 11 of 17 games last year. Maybe that number does indeed boom without Gallup in the equation, but then again we're approaching ROUGH territory when it comes to Cook's age cliff.

Last season Gallup and Tolbert (75) actually combined for more first-read targets than Cooks (73), who trailed Jake Ferguson (83) and Lamb (161, lol). The No. 2 WR in Dallas might wind up as the third overall pass-game option, and we probably shouldn't discount the potential for Tolbert and company to limit Cook's overall target upside.

Bottom line: Lamb is deserving of overall WR1 treatment, while Cooks (again) profiles as more of a boom-or-bust WR4 than someone fantasy managers will be able to consistently trust on a weekly basis.

Tight End

TE1: Jake Ferguson (TE10)
TE2: Luke Schoonmaker
TE3: Peyton Hendershot

Ferguson burst on the scene in his first full-time season as a starter in 2023, posting a season-long 71-761-5 receiving line and a huge 10-93-3 performance in the Cowboys' embarrassing Wild Card loss to the Packers.

The reigning TE10 in PPR points per game, Ferguson finished as the TE8 if we include every player's playoff production. Of course, he wasn't exactly among the position's most efficient pass-catchers on his way to getting there:

Ferguson among 27 TEs with 50-plus targets in 2023 (including playoffs):

PFF receiving grade: 76.7 (No. 8)
Yards per route run: 1.49 (No. 14)
Yards per reception: 10.5 (No. 9)
Targets per route run: 18.9% (No. 13)
Passer rating when targeted: 118.4 (No. 3)

A lot of those marks are similar to what ex-Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz managed with the Texans. There were some awesome moments — particularly Ferguson's alpha-ness against the Seahawks — but it's also tough to call the rising third-year talent a true difference-maker at the position in the same mold as guys like Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews.

Jan 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) makes a catch over Green Bay Packers linebacker Quay Walker (7) and safety Jonathan Owens (34) during the first half for the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

That said: Ferguson's pristine offensive environment and triple-digit target upside help create a tantalizing fantasy profile even if his real-life skills are more "good" than great. This combination paints a typical low-end TE1 case in a similar vein as guys like David Njoku, Dallas Goedert and Schultz.

Bottom line: Ferguson doesn't have the same 1.A/B pass-game option target upside as the position's top six or seven options, but it's tough to be overly critical about a good football player carrying a full-time role inside this perennial top-tier scoring offense.

Dallas Cowboys 2024 Season Prediction

BetMGM has set the Cowboys' 2024 win total at 10.5 with a -120 lean on the Under. The league's reigning fifth-ranked scoring defense returns most of its firepower, likely keeping Dallas firmly in the NFC East championship hunt as they look to become the first back-to-back champ since the 2003-04 Eagles.

That said: I'm taking under 10.5 wins for a squad that will be forced to deal with a first-place schedule and will largely be just another year older at many positions that never exactly received much of a boost in free agency or the draft, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Dallas Cowboys 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Players Mentioned in this Article

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

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Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Dallas Cowboys 2024 Season Prediction

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

More 2024 NFL Team Previews