Drafting from 1.10: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 10 pick

Try and sell drafting from the 1.10 to a friend. You can’t.

“Yes, please come join our league, where three-quarters of it will pick before you.”

I’d feel set up and led astray. My so-called friends bamboozled me. I “get” a chance to draft the 10th-best player. That sounds great. Just tell me where to pay my dues.

Of course, I’m overreacting. Sure, the first round puts you at a disadvantage. However, recognizing you’re pulling from within an early tier of skill players positions you to scoop up value later. And we can harness the turn to push or pull optimal picks onto our lineup.

In short, the 1.10 isn’t so bad. But let’s dive into it.

The First Round

*Draft Settings: PPR, ESPN ADP, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)

Setting expectations makes the task of watching nine players go off the board a bit easier. If you knew who’d be there, or even a range of options, you can make a (loose) plan. Luckily, our Draft Champion tool can set the stage for the first round.

I cycled through the other ADP sources (e.g., Yahoo, NFFC, etc.) and got the same top result. Jonathan Taylor did pop into the other suggestions a time or two. But this is (likely) our pool at the 1.10. And all of them are ideal selections.

Justin Jefferson could easily go at the 1.07. A three-spot drop in the first round presents an incredible value proposition. But if you’re concerned about the Vikings’ QB situation, Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, or Puka Nacua have paths to being top 5 at their position. Two of the three did it last year. So, let’s talk about Jahmyr Gibbs for a second.

Detroit’s rookie rusher posted top-10 marks in EPA per attempt, adjusted yards after contact, and forced missed tackle rate. Combined with a 12.1% explosive rush rate (2nd amongst all RBs), Gibbs’ rushing talent at the pro level matched his collegiate hype. Plus, of all the rushers with 200 or more carries, only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey saw more targets. Gibbs’ only impediment to cementing himself as a bellcow is his red-zone usage.

Per the Utilization Report, Gibbs didn’t take over carries from inside the five-yard line until the end of the regular season (Weeks 15-18). With David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs was able to convert his short-yardage carries into TDs at a similar rate (33.3% vs. 42.9%). With another offseason to grow in an offense with the lowest red-zone PROE, Gibbs has the talent and potential usage to return first-round value.

Regardless, at the 10 spot, the first round isn’t just about who you’re taking. You’re back up in four picks. There’s no time to marvel at filling your first starter spot. Accordingly, you’ll need a draft strategy preference.

Notice I said preference. It doesn’t mean picking Zero RB and rigidly sticking to it despite more optimal players being available. The inclination is a (temporary) guide. And with your second pick coming right around the corner, both the player and how they fit into your structure will be important points to consider.

Team 1: Jahmyr Gibbs (Hero RB)
Team 2: Justin Jefferson (Hero RB)
Team 3: Puka Nacua (Robust RB)

The 18-pick gap necessitates an early roster plan. However, as Teams 1 and 2 in our multiverse indicate, we can execute the same strategy despite opening with a different position. In any case, we’ll need to watch the draft board and make adjustments as the rest of the early rounds unfold.

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Admittedly, Team 2’s path to executing a Hero RB build looks tougher compared to Team 1, which took Gibbs at the 1.10. In the same position, I’d feel like just leaning into my advantage at WR as if I were in an earlier draft slot. That would be especially true if my leaguemates drafted more RBs at the turn.

Again, I’d feel distraught. The league is conspiring against me with those RB picks. But using our rankings and tiers paints a more optimistic picture.

All of the RBs drafted and available at ADP are in the second tier. So, by leading off with De’Von Achane as my anchor, I’m not setting my team back. A quick 2v2 calculation lends more credence to this idea.

Achane at 2.03 (214 PPR points) + Drake London at 3.10 (248) = 464 (total points)
Wilson at 2.03 (262) + Aaron Jones at 3.10 (199) = 461

Keep in mind that this approach works for any league, and the resulting decision can vary. London won’t always be available in the third round. Garrett Wilson has a first-round ADP on other sites. However, by keeping a constant eye on tiers drying up, each squad can exit the early rounds with a strong core.

I’ll be honest: I’m less excited about a Robust RB approach from the 10 hole. On the one hand, I have strength and depth at both core positions. But the lack of an elite or second-tier QB or TE is an obvious weakness. It emphasizes prioritizing these positions in the middle rounds, whereas the other squads have more flexibility.

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

Let’s focus on Team 3 as an example of how drafting from the 1.10 can be a sneaky strong spot.

I tend to come up with a positional priority list once I get into the middle rounds. It doesn’t pigeonhole me into looking for a specific player or position. I use it as a guide. And since I don’t have any starters at the onesies, my list would have either at the top.

QB or TE
WR
RB

I could flip No. 2 and No. 3 since my WRs (Nacua, Waddle, and Smith) likely won’t leave my lineup, but a passer or TE is on my radar heading into the seventh round. At the same time, I can also figure out what the two teams ahead of me are likely going to do heading into the turn.

Team 11 took Lamar Jackson and Kyle Pitts. Team 12 has Trey McBride. There’s a chance Team 12 is looking at QB with one of their picks. Neither should have TE as their main priority. Consequently, I can address my other needs first while knocking out my preferred position after the wrap.

As a mid-round TE, Jake Ferguson checks all of the boxes. He posted top-12 marks in target share and YPRR amongst all active TEs. In addition, Ferguson had the most red-zone looks (30) of any player at his position. However, this technique isn’t just about the name or specifically who I drafted.

If Dallas’ turnover on its offensive line concerns you, Dallas Goedert was available. Pat Freiermuth and Cole Kmet (also in Tier 3 with Ferguson) were still free agents (at cheaper draft costs), too. Regardless, the takeaway was I could push a need to a later pick after surveying the teams drafting after me. I did it again to secure my QB in the 10th round.

You can use the same process for RBs and WRs. However, the outcomes are harder to predict as the amount of depth can be a personal preference. Nevertheless, by harnessing the turn, each squad and strategy can glide through the middle rounds with ease.

In retrospect, Team 2 needs the most things to break right in order to compete. Even with Achane’s upside, he still has Raheem Mostert and (potentially) Jaylen Wright behind him. Plus, Chase Brown and Ty Chandler are part of ambiguous backfields. You could throw McLaughlin into the same bucket. However, by taking strong stances at WR and a QB-TE combo, the RB position carries less weight.

Ultimately, we have a way to build a contending roster from the 10th-overall spot. Sure, your first pick may look weak by comparison. But by using our rankings and tiers, your team will rival most of your league by the middle rounds.

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Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.10: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 10 pick

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY

Players Mentioned in this Article

Drafting from 1.10: Optimal fantasy draft strategy with the No. 10 pick

Go FantasyLife+

The First Round

The (Rest of the) Early Rounds

Adding Depth in the Middle Rounds

MORE PICK-SPECIFIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY