Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 12: Jonnu Smith, Brock Bowers, and More
Matthew Freedman identifies the top tight end plays for fantasy football in Week 12, highlighting Jonnu Smith and Brock Bowers and players to target.
Matthew Freedman highlights the top Week 12 tight end plays in fantasy football.
In the words of Josh Lyman, "This is grind-it-out time. It's three yards and a cloud of dust."
In just one week, we'll be glutting ourselves on all the pie we can handle (and then some).
We'll be watching Planes, Trains & Automobiles and wondering why there aren't more Thanksgiving movies.
And we'll be witnessing the last game of HC Mike McCarthy's tenure with the Cowboys, who will lose at home on Turkey Day to the lowly Giants.
But that's next week.
This week, we take what's ours.
We get one win closer to the fantasy playoffs.
We make that one crucial decision that makes the difference between victory and defeat.
This week, we grind.
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As of Tuesday afternoon, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 12 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Bye Week: This week the Bills, Bengals, Saints, Falcons, Jets, and Jaguars are on bye.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 19, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 TEs
Jonnu Smith (Dolphins) vs. Patriots
- Dolphins: -7
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 26.75
In the immortal words of Shylock:
“He hath disgraced me, and hindered me half a million; laughed at my losses, mocked at my gains. I am … fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer … If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge? If we are like you in the rest, we will resemble you in that … The villainy you teach me, I will execute, and it shall go hard but I will better the instruction.”
After languishing and suffering the indignity of underutilization in New England for the 2021-22 seasons (55-539-1 receiving, 6.5 yards per target), Jonnu Smith now finally seems to be in the midst of a breakout campaign in his first year with the Dolphins.
For the season, he is second on the team in targets (52) and receiving yards (448), trailing only No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill in both categories, and in five games since the Week 6 bye he has 25-308-2 receiving on 31 targets with a strong 23% target rate and 21% target share.
After the promise of his third and fourth NFL seasons in Tennessee (76-887-11 receiving, 6-82-1 rushing), Smith appears to be reaching his potential now in Miami—just in time for his second #RevengeGame of the season against the division-rival Patriots.
In his first game against the Pats, the Dolphins featured Smith heavily in the offense, resulting in 5-62-0 receiving on 8 targets.
Now, Smith is an even larger part of the offense, and the Patriots are without FS Jabrill Peppers (exempt list) and might also be without FS Marte Mapu (neck), who missed last week.
The Hot Route
Brock Bowers (Raiders +5, TT: 18.25) vs. Broncos: Big Block Brock last week hit career-high marks in targets (16), receptions (13), and yards receiving (126) in his first game under interim OC Scott Turner, and in his seven games this year without former No. 1 WR Davante Adams ("hamstring," traded) he has 52-509-3 receiving on 68 targets (plus 2-9-0 rushing) with an elite 9.4 Utilization Score. Bowers had 8-97-1 receiving on 12 targets in Week 5 against the Broncos, and they could now be without FS Brandon Jones (abdomen), who missed last week. Bowers might be the best rookie TE ever.
Theo Johnson (Giants +5, TT: 18.5) vs. Buccaneers: Johnson hasn't had a snap rate or route rate below 76% in any game over the past six weeks, and in five of those games he has had a minimum of three receptions and 30 yards. Sure, the sixth game was a receiving goose egg with … checks notes … zero targets, but, you know, whatever. It's Week 12. We have six teams on bye. Despair drives desperation. Etc. The Buccaneers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (31.2%).
Noah Gray (Chiefs -11, TT: 26.25) at Panthers: Gray is coming off a 4-23-2 receiving performance on a season-high 5 targets, so naturally he will have a scoreless 11 yards this week. I know this. Even so, I'm stepping into the bear trap. Since 2022, Gray has averaged an explosive 8.4 yards per target, and since the Week 6 bye he has a 57% route rate with a nice season-high 69% mark last week. Only a sicko would consider starting Gray … but you kinda look ill, and the Panthers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (14.0).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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