Running Backs for Fantasy Football Week 12: De'Von Achane, Joe Mixon, and More
Matthew Freedman highlights why De'Von Achane, Joe Mixon, and Brian Robinson find themselves among the very best RB plays in Week 12 of the fantasy football season.
It's Week 12.
In the words of Josh Lyman, "This is grind-it-out time. It's three yards and a cloud of dust."
In just one week, we'll be glutting ourselves on all the pie we can handle (and then some).
We'll be watching Planes, Trains & Automobiles and wondering why there aren't more Thanksgiving movies.
And we'll be witnessing the last game of HC Mike McCarthy's tenure with the Cowboys, who will lose at home on Turkey Day to the lowly Giants.
But that's next week.
This week, we take what's ours.
We get one win closer to the fantasy playoffs.
We make that one crucial decision that makes the difference between victory and defeat.
This week, we grind.
As of Tuesday afternoon, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 12 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Bye Week: This week the Bills, Bengals, Saints, Falcons, Jets, and Jaguars are on bye.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 19, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
Best RBs for Fantasy Football Week 12
Joe Mixon (Texans) vs. Titans
- Texans: -7.5
- O/U: 41
- TT: 24.25
This is my second week in a row to highlight Joe Mixon, but I can't help myself.
If we remove his injury-impacted Week 2, which Mixon exited early with an ankle issue, we have a seven-game sample in which he has looked like an absolute league winner.
- Week 1: 178 yards, 1 TD | 30 carries, 3 targets
- Week 6: 132 yards, 2 TDs | 13 carries, 3 targets
- Week 7: 124 yards, 2 TDs | 25 carries, 3 targets
- Week 8: 134 yards, 1 TD | 25 carries, 6 targets
- Week 9: 106 yards, 1 TD | 24 carries
- Week 10: 90 yards, 1 TDs | 25 carries, 4 targets
- Week 11: 153 yards, 3 TDs | 20 carries, 4 targets
As a home favorite of more than a TD, Mixon has an excellent chance of seeing another outsized workload this week, and the Titans could be without LB Jack Gibbens (ankle), who this year has been the team's top off-ball rush defender (79.9 run defense grade, per PFF).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Patriots
- Dolphins: -7
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 26.75
This is also my second week in a row to highlight De'Von Achane, but I simply must given his circumstances.
The matchup is fantastic against the Patriots, who are No. 28 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.5).
And the situational spot is ideal, as the Dolphins could give 20-plus opportunities to Achane as big home favorites.
With QB Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, Achane has balled out in every game save one this season.
- Week 1: 100 yards, 1 TD | 10 carries, 7 targets
- Week 2: 165 yards, 1 TD | 22 carries, 7 targets
- Week 8: 147 yards, 1 TD | 10 carries, 8 targets
- Week 9: 121 yards, 2 TDs | 12 carries, 8 targets
- Week 10: 52 yards, 0 TDs | 12 carries, 5 targets
- Week 11: 105 yards, 1 TD | 17 carries, 4 targets
One of my favorite regular bets this season has been Achane anytime TD. He has hit paydirt in five of six games with Tagoavailoa, and I have him projected with -186.4 odds to score, which equates to a 65.1% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator). Only a few RBs have higher TD projections than Achane (0.77).
Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.
Brian Robinson (Commanders) vs. Cowboys
- Commanders: -10
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 27.25
Robinson returned to action last week after a hamstring injury sidelined him the previous two games, and he looked like himself with 72 yards and a TD on 16 carries and a target.
Despite exiting Week 5 early (34% snap rate), playing in a reduced role in Weeks 7-8 (38% and 47% snap rates), and splitting time consistently throughout the season with No. 2 RB Austin Ekeler, Robinson has been a steady producer with either 75-plus yards or a TD in every contest and 12-plus opportunities in every game but one.
- Week 1: 89 yards, 1 TD | 12 carries, 4 targets
- Week 2: 136 yards | 17 carries, 3 targets
- Week 3: 37 yards, 1 TD | 16 carries, 1 target
- Week 4: 113 yards, 1 TD | 21 carries, 3 targets
- Week 5: 18 yards, 2 TDs | 7 carries
- Week 7: 71 yards, 1 TD | 12 carries
- Week 8: 76 yards | 16 carries, 1 target
- Week 11: 72 yards, 1 TD | 16 carries, 1 target
Robinson should be fully ready for an expanded workload as a big home favorite with three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, and the Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.084).
The Checkdown
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks Pick'Em, TT: 23.75) vs. Cardinals: With the exception of the team's 31-10 blowout loss to the Bills in Week 8, Walker has either 75-plus yards or a TD in every game played this year. In his two games last year against Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon's defense, Walker had 192 yards on 43 carries and four targets.
Kareem Hunt (Chiefs -11, TT: 26.25) at Panthers: No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco (leg) returned to practice last week, but he didn't get in a full practice and also was ruled out on Friday (vs. drawing a questionable tag), so I still tentatively project him to miss one more work. In Pacheco's absence, Hunt has 540 yards and five TDs on 125 carries and 15 targets in six games as the starter, and despite missing Weeks 1-3 he has an NFL-high 15 goal-line carries. The Panthers are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.9).
J.K. Dobbins (Chargers +3, TT: 24) vs. Panthers: "Vengeance is in my heart, death in my hand, blood and revenge are hammering in my head." Even with the return of No. 2 RB Gus Edwards, Dobbins has 26 carries and four targets over the past two weeks. The Ravens could be without LB Roquan Smith (hamstring), who exited last week early with a soft-tissue injury.
David Montgomery (Lions -7.5, TT: 29.25) at Colts: Montgomery is a TD machine. Last week, he had two TDs. This year, he has 11 (including a passing score) in 10 games. Last year, he had 15 in 17 (including playoffs). It's not hard for me to imagine myself betting on him to score this week against the Colts, who are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.3).
Dylan Laube (Raiders +5, TT: 18.25) vs. Broncos: RBs Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quadriceps) both exited Week 11 with injuries, and veteran Ameer Abdullah is a pass-catching specialist. So what if the Broncos are No. 3 in defensive rush DVOA (-25.3%) and if Laube has zero yards and just one carry in his NFL carry? It's Week 12, six teams are on bye, and sometimes desperate people behave dangerously. Can I envision Laube getting 10 opportunities if Mattison and White are out? I'm unhinged enough to conceive of anything. Pick up Abdullah if you want, but if you're really nasty—a true sicko—you'll consider Laube too.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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