Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 12: Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and more
Matthew Freedman identifies the top quarterback plays for Week 12 of the NFL season, highlighting Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix as top starters for fantasy football.
Matthew Freedman
It's Week 12.
In the words of Josh Lyman, "This is grind-it-out time. It's three yards and a cloud of dust."
In just one week, we'll be glutting ourselves on all the pie we can handle (and then some).
We'll be watching Planes, Trains & Automobiles and wondering why there aren't more Thanksgiving movies.
And we'll be witnessing the last game of HC Mike McCarthy's tenure with the Cowboys, who will lose at home on Turkey Day to the lowly Giants.
But that's next week.
This week, we take what's ours.
We get one win closer to the fantasy playoffs.
We make that one crucial decision that makes the difference between victory and defeat.
This week, we grind.
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As of Tuesday afternoon, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 12 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Bye Week: This week the Bills, Bengals, Saints, Falcons, Jets, and Jaguars are on bye.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 19, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 QBs
Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Cowboys
- Commanders: -10
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 27.25
Situationally, the Commanders are in a great spot this week. They're at home. They have 10 days between games thanks to playing last week on Thursday Night Football. And the Cowboys have only six days to rest and prepare because they're coming off Monday Night Football.
Historically, teams have outperformed market expectations in such a "widowmaker spot" (per Action Network).
- Home Widowmaker (ATS): 10-4 | 39.8% ROI | +6.71 Margin
- Home Widowmaker (ML): 11-3 | 13.3% ROI | +12.3 Margin
On top of that, the matchup is good: The Cowboys are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.1). And their ability to generate pressure is diminished without EDGEs DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR), Marshawn Kneeland (knee, IR), and Sam Williams (knee, IR).
Ever since exiting Week 7 early with a lingering rib injury, Jayden Daniels has been less than his best self.
- Weeks 1-7: 75.6% completion rate | 8.6 AY/A | 53.1 rushing yards per game
- Weeks 8-11: 59.5% completion rate | 7.6 AY/A | 27.5 rushing yards per game
But I expect him to be close to peak capacity now that he's one more week removed from the injury with three additional days to recover.
Respectively ranked Nos. 1 & 4 among all starting QBs with a 13% scramble rate and 15% designed rush share (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), Daniels has a high floor on a week-to-week basis, and his matchup this week gives him a significant ceiling.
He has lost a little bit of his shine over the past month, but Daniels is still a worthy -400 Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. Sadly, I expect him to crush my Cowboys.
Bo Nix (Broncos) at Raiders
- Broncos: -5
- O/U: 41.5
- TT: 23.25
Bo Nix started slowly in the first month of the season, but since then he has progressively transformed himself into a solidly above-average performer.
- Weeks 1-4: 60.1% completion rate | 3.6 AY/A | 12.3 FPPG
- Weeks 5-11: 69.0% completion rate | 8.2 AY/A | 21.6 FPPG
Over the past seven weeks, Nix has been a top-12 fantasy producer five times.
A pessimist might point out that Nix's recent production has been aided by a friendly schedule against teams with weak pass defenses … but then a realist would counter by noting that the Raiders are themselves one of those teams.
The Raiders are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (50.0%, per RBs Don't Matter), and against them in Week 5, Nix had the first top-10 performance of his young career with 206 yards and 2 TDs passing and 8-9-1 rushing.
I bet on the Broncos in the lookahead market this past weekend at -3 (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have them projected at -5.9 in our Fantasy Life Game Models. Led by Nix, I expect them to put up points.
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The Dropback
Justin Herbert (Chargers +3, TT: 24) vs. Chargers: Since the Week 5 bye, Herbert has looked like one of the league's best QBs (268 passing yards per game, 9.5 AY/A, 27-158-1 rushing). The Ravens are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.6).
Geno Smith (Seahawks Pick'Em, TT: 23.75) vs. Cardinals: Smith unfortunately leads the league with 11 INTs, but he also has an NFL-high 278.1 passing yards per game. Sometimes pain accompanies pleasure. The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (50.1%).
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins -7, TT: 26.75) vs. Patriots: Tagovailoa has been surgical (77.7% completion rate, 8.1 AY/A) since returning from injury in Week 8, and he has outperformed at home, going 19-11 ATS (20.9% ROI) and 22-8 ML (18.8% ROI). Against the Patriots—No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (29.9%, per FTN)—he's 6-0 ATS (90.6% ROI) and 6-0 ML (108.3% ROI).
Tommy DeVito (Giants +5, TT: 18.5) vs. Buccaneers: I'm joking! … sort of. The Giants are home off the bye, the Buccaneers are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.0%), and DeVito is just 1.1 points against the spread worse than benched veteran Daniel Jones (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart). With 6.3 AY/A and 5.4 yards per carry last year as a rookie, DeVito might be … almost competent for a backup?
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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