It's Week 16.

We're in the heart of the fantasy playoffs. Now isn't the time to go holiday shopping or spend time with family and friends, even if (or especially if) you're in a league with them.

Now's the time to do your fantasy research, dominate your opponents and get to the championship game.

That's all that matters.

Let's get into the Week 16 QB Rankings edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series and my Week 16 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays.

• Week 16 RB Rankings
• Week 16 WR Rankings
• Week 16 TE Rankings

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

Matchup Upgrades In My Week 16 QB Rankings: Justin Herbert vs. Cowboys & Tyler Shough vs. Jets

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Jets are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.7)
• Jets: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (42.5%)

Bang a gong.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) at Cowboys: Since November, Herbert has been mediocre (6.2 AY/A, 32-171-1 rushing in six games), and in three games since the Week 12 bye, he has been worse (5.9 AY/A, 15-74-0 rushing). But just last week, the Cowboys made J.J. McCarthy—one of the league's worst starting QBs—look like one of the best (250 yards, two TDs passing and 4-15-1 rushing). The Cowboys are the consummate "get right" opponent.

Tyler Shough (Saints) vs. Jets: I don't want to be dramatic. I'm not starting Shough in Guillotine Leagues™ … but maybe he's not terrible? In his six NFL starts, he has shown real poise as a rookie (69.0% completion rate, 7.0 AY/A), and in four games since the Week 11 bye, he has added an extra element to his game on the ground (28-127-2 rushing). As for the matchup, top CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter are on new teams, CBs Jarvis Brownlee (hip, IR) and Azareye'h Thomas (shoulder, IR) and FS Andre Cisco (pec, IR) are out, and SS Tony Adams (groin) and No. 3 S Isaiah Oliver (knee) both exited last game early with injuries.

Week 16 QB Rankings - Scoring Upgrades: Jared Goff vs. Steelers & Brock Purdy vs. Colts 

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (28.25 points), and the 49ers aren't far behind at No. 3 (26).

Upgrades warranted.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Steelers: The Lions have averaged 31.5 points since HC Dan Campbell assumed play-calling duties in Week 10, and Goff has aired it out in that six-game span (1,757 yards, 12 TDs passing). The Steelers are on short rest off Monday Night Football and could be without EDGE T.J. Watt (chest) and CB James Pierre (calf).

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Colts: Purdy just had his best game of the season and a top-five positional performance out of the Week 14 bye (26.2 fantasy points on 295 yards, three TDs passing and 7-44-0 rushing). For the Colts, No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (calf) last played in Week 13, and No. 2 CB Charvarius Ward (concussion, IR) is out.

Defensive Injury Upgrades In My Week 16 QB Rankings: Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers & Gardner Minshew vs. Titans

Here are a couple of QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Bryce Young (Panthers) vs. Buccaneers: Despite playing three of his past four games on the road, Young has looked like a competent professional QB in that stretch (986 yards, eight TDs passing and 17-86-0 rushing). The Panthers have had one of the league's best home-field advantages over the past year (+9.02, per NFElo), and Young at home is 11-7-1 ATS (16.8% ROI, per Action Network) vs. 8-13 ATS on the road. The Bucs are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.4) and could be without three starters in the back seven in LB SirVocea Dennis (hip), CB Zyon McCollum (hip) and SS Tykee Smith (neck).

Gardner Minshew (Chiefs) at Titans: No. 1 QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) is out, so Minshew will start in his stead. With a career mark of 6.8 AY/A, he's perhaps passable, and the matchup is friendly: The Titans are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (26.6%), and on defense, they might be without LB Cedric Gray (concussion), CBs Jalyn Armour-Davis (Achilles) and Kevin Winston (hamstring) and FS Xavier Woods (hamstring).

Week 16 QB Rankings - Indoors Upgrades: Dak Prescott vs. Chargers & C.J. Stroud vs. Raiders 

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Chargers: The Cowboys are playing their second straight home game and fourth in five weeks. Prescott has passed for 1,611 yards and nine TDs (to four INTs) and added 16-19-1 rushing in five games since the Week 10 bye. Prescott is on the massively positive side of his environmental splits for the year (312.0 passing yards per game indoors vs. 225.0 outdoors). The Chargers could be without SS Elijah Molden (hamstring) and FS R.J. Mickens (shoulder).

C.J. Stroud (Texans) vs. Raiders: Stroud is at home for the second consecutive game, and he seems to have recaptured some of his rookie form since returning from injury in Week 13 (739 yards, four TDs passing with an 8.2 AYA in three games). Just last week, embattled QB Jalen Hurts had an easy 175 yards and three TDs passing against the Raiders on just 15 attempts in a 31-0 win.

Notes For My Week 16 QB Rankings

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Join Our Newsletter

Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.

Email Address

Subscribe

By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.