Week 16 RB Rankings: De'Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs and More
Matthew Freedman released his Week 16 RB fantasy football rankings and featured his favorite players, including De'Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs.
It's Week 16.
Some people this time of year are focused on buying gifts for their family and friends.
Not you.
The gift you're gonna give them can't be bought. It's priceless, and it can only be earned.
That gift?
The privilege of knowing a fantasy football champion.
Let's get into the Week 16 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 16 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 16 Running Back Rankings
Week 16 Matchup Upgrades: De'Von Achane vs. Bengals & Aaron Jones vs. Giants
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Giants are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.4)
- Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.146) and defensive rush DVOA (14.4%)
Bang a gong.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Bengals: Though he had an injury concern prior to facing the Steelers, Achane amassed 127 total yards on 18 touches for the Dolphins play on Monday Night Football in Week 15. Since Achane and QB Tua Tagovailoa made it through that game unscathed, I'm be high on Achane this week. He's the only RB this year with 10+ fantasy points in every game, and with Tagovailoa, the Dolphins at home are 24-15 ATS (17.1% ROI, per Action Network).
Aaron Jones (Vikings) at Giants: Jones hasn't had a full workload since returning from injury in Week 8 (51% rush share, 52% route rate, 63 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but he has played comfortably ahead of No. 2 RB Jordan Mason (31 Utilization Score). The firing of former DC Shane Bowen has seemingly done little to improve the stop unit for the Giants, who could be without EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder) and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle).
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Week 16 Scoring Upgrades: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Steelers & Jawhar Jordan vs. Raiders
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."
This week the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (28.25 points), and the Texans aren't far behind at No. 3 (26).
Upgrades warranted.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Cowboys: Gibbs disappointed last week (58 scoreless yards), but over the past six games—since HC Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling duties—he still has 846 yards and 9 TDs on 87 carries, 42 targets and an elite 93 Utilization Score. The Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+7.84, per NFElo), and at home with QB Jared Goff they're 28-15-1 ATS (24.0%).
Jawhar Jordan (Texans) vs. Raiders: Jordan is an adult male (aged 26 years). That's about all I know about him. Last week he flashed in his first NFL action (118 yards on 15 carries, two targets), and this week he might draw his first NFL start if RBs Woody Marks (ankle) and Nick Chubb (ribs) remain out. If so, he could see significant work as a 14.5-point home favorite. I wouldn't start Jordan in Guillotine Leagues, but he could be a fine desperado waiver wire pickup.
Week 15 Home Favorite Upgrades: Javonte Williams vs. Chargers & Audric Estime vs. Jets
In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.
Here are two such RBs who stand out.
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Chargers: For the season, Williams has 1,241 yards and 12 TDs in 14 games, and since the Week 10 bye he has 432 yards and 3 TDs in five games with 15+ opportunities in each contest. The Cowboys are playing their second straight home game and fourth in five weeks, and Williams should continue to have a strong workload as a home favorite.
Audric Estime (Saints) vs. Jets: No one knows how the Saints backfield will shake out if RBs Alvin Kamara (knee) and Devin Neal (hamstring) are unable to suit up, but last week Estime was the leader (43 Utilization Report), and this week he has a good matchup against the Jets, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.5). They have especially struggled since trading away DT Quinnen Williams in November.
Week 15 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Jonathan Taylor vs. 49ers & Tyrone Tracy vs. Vikings
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. 49ers: With QB Philip Rivers making his first start in five years last week, Taylor had an obscene 25 carries and 4 targets. I expect the Colts to funnel the offense through Taylor once again this week given that the 49ers are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.9%) and are horrifically injured on the front seven: EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Mykel Williams (knee, IR) and Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR) and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR) are out, and EDGE Sam Okuayinonu (ankle), DT Jordan Elliott (knee) and LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) all missed last week.
Tyrone Tracy (Giants) vs. Vikings: Tracy had a top-5 positional performance out of the Week 14 bye (23.2 fantasy points on 97 yards, 2 TDs and an 83 Utilization Score), and the Vikings could be without two DL starters in EDGE Jonathan Greenard (shoulder) and DT Javon Hargrave (groin).
Week 15 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Eagles & Michael Carter vs. Falcons
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs. Eagles: RB Chris Rodriguez (groin) missed last week, and in his absence the artist formerly known as "Bill" had 18-96-1 rushing. As a 6.0-point underdog, he's unlikely to replicate his success this week, but he should still lead the Commanders backfield if Rodriguez is out, and the Eagles have been without DT Jalen Carter (shoulder) for the past two games.
Michael Carter (Cardinals) vs. Falcons: No. 1 RB James Conner (foot, IR) is out. No. 2 RB Trey Benson (knee, IR) was unable to return after the team opened his practice window. No. 3 RB Bam Knight (ankle) exited last week early with an injury, which facilitated a season-best performance for Carter (94 yards on 14 carries, four targets). While change-of-pace Emari Demercado lingers in the background, Carter looks like the lead back as long as Knight is out.
Notes For My Week 16 RB Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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