Week 16 WR Rankings: Jameson Williams and Michael Wilson Ascend
Matthew Freedman highlights the biggest risers in his Week 16 WR rankings for the semi-finals round of the fantasy football playoffs.
It's Week 16.
In the spirit of the season, be sure to gift your leaguemates all the Ls they deserve.
Let's get into the Week 16 WR Rankings edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 16 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Rankings
Matchup Upgrades In My Week 16 WR Rankings: A.J. Brown vs. Commanders & Chris Olave vs. Jets
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Jets are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.
- Commanders: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.256)
- Jets: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (42.5%)
Bang a gong.
A.J. Brown (Eagles) at Commanders: Brown missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury and then had a reduced role in his Week 10 return off the bye. But in his five games since then, he has 33-432-4 receiving on 48 targets and a dominant 92 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Last year, Brown had 13-162-1 receiving on 23 targets in two games against the Commanders, who will be without CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee, IR), Trey Amos (leg, IR) and maybe Jonathan Jones (ribs).
Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Jets: WRs Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks are no longer with the team, and WR Devaughn Vele (shoulder) exited last week early with an injury. Since the team traded Shaheed in Week 10, Olave has a 92% route rate, 28% target share, 49% air yard share and 67% end zone target share, which he has converted into 27-336-3 receiving on 42 targets. For the Jets, top CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter are on new teams, and CBs Jarvis Brownlee (hip, IR) and Azareye'h Thomas (shoulder, IR) are out.
Week 16 WR Rankings - Scoring Upgrades: Jameson Williams vs. Steelers & Jauan Jennings vs. Colts
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WR."
This week, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (28.25 points), and the 49ers aren't far behind at No. 3 (26).
Upgrades warranted.
Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Steelers: In the six games since HC Dan Campbell assumed play-calling duties in Week 10, Williams has matched No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in air yard share (39%), endzone target share (22%) and Utilization Score (83), and with that usage he has put up 31-581-4 receiving on 45 targets with 3-11-0 rushing. Over the past five years, the Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage (+7.84, per NFElo), and at home with QB Jared Goff, they're 28-15-1 ATS (24.0%, per Action Network). The Steelers are on short rest off Monday Night Football and could be without CB James Pierre (calf).
Jauan Jennings (49ers) at Colts: I highlighted Jennings last week in this very section, and then he scored two TDs, so I'm mentioning him again because "you never walk away from the table when you're on a heater." Since Jennings returned to full practice in Week 8, he has a 23% target share, 34% air yard share and 46% endzone target share. For the Colts, No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (calf) has missed the past two games, and No. 2 CB Charvarius Ward (concussion, IR) is out. I don't know if I'd go with Jennings in Guillotine Leagues™, but in deeper leagues, I'd be willing to start him.
Defensive Injury Upgrades In My WR Rankings For Week 16: Rashee Rice vs. Titans & Tetairoa McMillan vs. Buccaneers
Here are a couple of WRs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Titans: The absence of No. 1 QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) will undoubtedly hurt Rice's production, but he should still remain the focal point of the pass attack (52 targets in five games since the Week 10 bye), and at least QB Gardner Minshew is a competent backup (6.8 AY/A for career). The Chiefs could be without WRs Hollywood Brown (personal) and Tyquan Thornton (head), the Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (48.0%), and CBs Jalyn Armour-Davis (Achilles) and Kevin Winston (hamstring) might both be out.
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs. Buccaneers: Although he disappointed last week in a 20-17 loss (2-25-0 receiving, four targets), McMillan, on the year, is the No. 5 WR in air yard share (48%). The Panthers have had one of the league's best home-field advantages over the past year (+9.02, per NFElo), the Bucs are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (50.9%), and CB Zyon McCollum (hip) exited last game early with an injury.
Week 16 WR Rankings - Offensive Injury Upgrades: Zay Flowers vs. Patriots & DJ Moore vs. Packers
Here are several WRs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs. Falcons: WRs Marvin Harrison (heel), Xavier Weaver (hamstring) and Greg Dortch (chest, IR) have all been out over the past two weeks, and without them, Wilson has had 16-196-3 receiving on 27 targets. Wilson has absolutely balled out this year in his four games without Harrison (41-499-3 receiving on 60 targets), and the Vikings could be without CB Mike Hughes (ankle).
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Patriots: No. 2 WR Rashod Bateman (ankle) missed last game after a mid-week sprain sidelined him, and given the nature and timing of his injury, I doubt he'll play this week. In his 11 games with QB Lamar Jackson, he has 814 yards on 76 targets and eight carries, and last week he finally scored a TD (his first since Week 1). The Pats are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (51.5%).
DJ Moore (Bears) vs. Packers: No. 1 WR Rome Odunze (foot) missed last week after he aggravated his injury in warmups, and No. 3 WR Luther Burden (ankle) exited early and is uncertain for this week. Moore has had a disappointing season, but last week he had a top-five positional performance (20.9 fantasy points on 4-69-2 receiving with five targets), and he could have an expanded role if Odunze and Burden are out.
Jayden Reed (Packers) at Bears: Since returning from injury in Week 14, Reed is No. 1 in an albeit widely distributed pass attack (17% target share), and with his usage, he has 9-86-0 receiving on 10 targets with 2-22-0 rushing. Reed has been an explosive player throughout his career (9.7 yards per target, 9.2 yards per carry), WR Christian Watson (chest) exited this past game with an injury and the Bears are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.9).
Indoors Upgrades In My Week 16 WR Rankings: Nico Collins vs. Raiders & Alec Pierce vs. 49ers
In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.
Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Raiders: In seven games since the Week 8 bye, Collins has 38-662-3 receiving on 61 targets with 1-7-1 rushing, and he has done even better in his three games since QB C.J. Stroud's Week 13 return (311 yards, three TDs). The Raiders are without CB Kyu Blu Kelly (knee, IR) … not that it matters.
Alec Pierce (Colts) vs. 49ers: I'm dubious that QB Philip Rivers still has the arm strength to attack downfield, which would explain why Pierce had just one target last week. Even so, he should naturally see more opportunities this week, and I expect HC Shane Steichen to attempt to open up the playbook more now that Rivers has had a game in the system. For the season, Pierce is No. 1 on the team with a 44% air yard share and 33% endzone target share, and the 49ers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (23.4%).
Week 16 WR Rankings - Air Yards Upgrades: Mack Hollins vs. Ravens & Adonai Mitchell vs. Saints
The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares, and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.
You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.
Mack Hollins (Patriots) at Ravens: Think what you want, but even with the Week 12 return of teammate Kayshon Boutte, the underappreciated Hollins has been the No. 1 WR for the Patriots over the past three weeks (21% target share, 35% air yard share, 29% endzone target share). At some point, Hollins will have a game with 80+ yards and a TD.
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) at Saints: Even with No. 3 QB Brady Cook last week, Mitchell still had 6-58-1 receiving on nine targets. In his five Jets games without No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson (knee, IR), Mitchell has an obscene 50% air yards share and 63% endzone target share with an 87% route rate.
Notes For My Week 16 Wide Receiver Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
