Week 6 Bold Predictions: Panthers Crush the Cowboys, and More
Matthew Freedman shares his bold predictions for Week 6 of the NFL season, including the Panthers getting a dominant home win over the Cowboys.
It's time for the Week 6 bold predictions.
For my full thoughts on the characteristics of a fearless forecast, see my Week 1 NFL bold predictions piece, but here's the basic idea: Each week, I want to make 3-5 predictions that are improbable and yet also actionable.
Technically wrong but directionally right.
In a word: Bold.
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Abbreviations I might use are at the end of the piece.
Let's get to it: The Oracle's Week 6 bold calls!
The Oracle's Week 6 Bold Predictions
Carolina Panthers Dominate Dallas Cowboys
Let's start with this: The Panthers this year are 0-3 on the road but 2-0 at home.
On the road, they have a -50 point differential—for just three games! That's terrible.
But at home, they have +33 differential—for only two games. That's incredible.
And I don't think these splits are random or fluky. Last year, the Panthers had an average differential of -16.0 on the road (minus the neutral London game), but at home they had a mark of -8.3.
Every NFL team is better at home … but the Panthers are much better at home.
Phrased differently: The Panthers are absolutely atrocious away from home—and I think their road-based iniquities color our perception of them at Bank of America Stadium, where over the past year they've had the league's No. 3 home-field advantage (+10.5, per NFElo).
So the Panthers are in a good spot in terms of location, and they also have an edge in travel: This is their second game in a row at home and third in four weeks. Right now, they are very much not weary from the road.
Now let's compare that to the Cowboys, who are playing their second straight game out east and third on the road out of the past four weeks. And their one home game in this stretch: A 40-40 overtime tie. The well-traveled Cowboys have every reason to be worn out.
Now let's look at the matchup.
The Cowboys' offense has been powered by the running game this year, ranking No. 1 in rush SR (51.6%, per RBs Don't Matter). But the Panthers are No. 4 in defensive rush SR (33.6%). The Cowboys' offense doesn't have a big rushing edge.
As for the passing game: The Cowboys' offense is No. 15 in dropback SR (47.8%) … the Panthers' defense, No. 10 (44.6%).
So the Cowboys' offense has a slight edge on the ground, but that might be outweighed by the edge the Panthers' defense has in the air.
What about when the Panthers have the ball?
Their offense is No. 9 in rush SR (44.3%); the Cowboys' defense … No. 24 (45.2%). Oh no. Clear edge for the Panthers' offense on the ground.
What about the passing game? The Panthers' offense is No. 17 in dropback SR (47.4%); the Cowboys' defense, No. 28 (52.8%). Yikes. Clear edge for the Panthers' offense in the air.
So the Panthers have a good home-field advantage, they have a notable travel edge, and they seem to match up fairly well against the Cowboys.
Why exactly are the Cowboys favored?
Although the Panthers are consensus three-point underdogs, I have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.
Bold Prediction: Panthers beat Cowboys by 14+ points.
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Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers Explode For Points
Let's start with the Chargers' defense.
I know it's theoretically good. It's No. 4 in SR (41.2) and No. 8 in EPA (-0.036). That said … I don't think it's that good.
They've allowed 20+ points to every opponent except one, and that was the Raiders. But look at the other teams they've faced. They allowed 21 points to the Chiefs without WRs Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder). They allowed 20 points to the Broncos with overhyped QB Bo Nix. They allowed 21 points to the Giants in QB Jaxson Dart's first start. And they allowed 27 to the Commanders with recently injured QB Jayden Daniels (knee).
Think of last year's defense, which was No. 1 in the league with just 301 points allowed. And here's the status of some of the main playmakers on that unit.
- EDGE Joey Bosa: On the Bills
- EDGE Khalil Mack (elbow, IR): Out
- DT Poona Ford: On the Rams
- LB Denzel Perryman (ankle, IR): Out
- CB Kristian Fulton: On the Chiefs
- FS Alohi Gilman: On the Ravens
This year's defense is not last year's. Teams can score on the Chargers.
As for the Dolphins' defense … it's No. 31 in EPA (0.197) and No. 32 in SR (51.6%). The Dolphins have allowed 27+ points to every opponent except one, and that was the Jets (who still scored 21).
Anyone can score against the Dolphins.
On offense, both teams are top-eight in dropback rate, dropback over expected, trailing dropback rate, and neutral/close dropback rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- Dropback Rate: MIA - 68% (No. 3) | LAC - 66% (No. 4)
- DBOE: LAC - 5% (No. 3) | MIA - 5% (No. 4)
- Trailing Dropback Rate: LAC - 79% (No. 2) | MIA - 75% (No. 4)
- Neutral Dropback Rate: MIA - 67% (No. 1) | LAC - 64% (No. 7)
And the Chargers are No. 8 (60%) in leading dropback rate.
However this game unfolds, we're likely to see lots of passing, and that means the potential for tons of points.
People act as if the Dolphins' offense is terrible—and it was actually terrible in Week 1 (eight points)—but since then, the Dolphins have put up 27, 21, 27, and 24 points.
The Dolphins can hold their own on offense, and I'm not worried about the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert being able to score on the beleaguered Dolphins defense.
This game has a total of 43.5, but the over is a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.
Bold Prediction: Dolphins and Chargers combine for 60+ points.
Matthew Stafford Ruins the Injured Ravens Defense
Matthew Stafford offers nothing as a runner, but he's maybe the league's best dropback pocket passer, ranking No. 1 with 1,503 yards passing this year.
He has especially been on fire over the past two games.
- Week 4 (vs. Colts): 375 yards, 3 TDs
- Week 5 (vs. 49ers): 389 yards, 3 TDs
And now, with three extra days of rest, he gets the Ravens, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.244) and could be without six defensive starters, including four in the back seven.
- DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck, IR)
- DT Broderick Washington (ankle, IR)
- LB Roquan Smith (hamstring)
- CB Marlon Humphrey (calf)
- CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring)
- SS Kyle Hamilton (groin)
If Stafford can pass for 300 yards and three TDs against normal defenses, why wouldn't he be able to do more against a bad and injured one?
Bold Prediction: Stafford passes for 400+ yards and 4+ TDs.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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