Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift deserve each other…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:

• 10 interesting reports from training camp
• An update on Kadarius Toney
• Breakout WRs: Who to target for 2023
• Draft Dilemmas: Who’s the Eagles’ RB1?
• It’s 7/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet

The firehose of training camp news has drenched the fantasy community with an ocean’s worth of news to sift through.

Luckily for you, I’m here with a life preserver to keep you afloat with the waves of information (I’m sorry for drowning you in this metaphor) as you prepare for drafts.

Here are 10 interesting nuggets from yesterday’s busy day…

💥 Calvin Ridley is dominating camp

If you logged on to Twitter (err, X) yesterday, then you were bombarded with clips of Ridley looking smooth as hell on the practice field. He was seen accelerating off the line, appearing explosive, and skying up for tough catches.

I’ve been skeptical of Ridley’s pricey ADP, but his incredible story and current form are making that position look less defensible by the day.

🚀 Is it finally time for Antonio Gibson?

We’ve all screamed for Gibson to get pass-catching work for years and it finally appears to be happening. Gibson feels like this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson to me. Giddy up.

🔊 Eagles RB hype is building

Rashaad Penny ran with the first-team offense, and D’Andre Swift was “deployed in a variety of ways” yesterday. It’s hard not to get excited about this duo, even with all of the question marks.

More on how to attack the Eagles backfield in drafts below from Chris.

📈 Javonte Williams ready to rock?

Not only did Williams avoid the PUP, but he also practiced yesterday and looked good according to local beats:

His ADP is about to rise big time. Pack your bags before it’s too late.

🥏 Darren Waller bounceback incoming?

Waller is “going to be a problem for defenses” according to Andrew Thomas. As long as Waller stays healthy, he’s going to be a smash. You could argue his ADP is still a round or two mispriced relative to the weekly ceiling and target consolidation upside he offers in a wide-open offense:

😥 Please be fine, Kyle Pitts

Pitts isn’t ready for practice and is still rehabbing after knee surgery:

Pitts did not speak to the media when he arrived at the locker room around 9:15 a.m. He missed the final seven games of the 2022 season because of a torn MCL. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has said he expects Pitts to be ready for the season opener, but his workload for training camp is unclear at this point.

The Athletic’s Josh Kendall

We’re all ready to get hurt again.

🚑️ Marvin Mims already hurt?

I’ll take things I don’t like to hear for $500, Alex. The fact that this is a *different* hamstring injury than the one he had earlier in the spring is not ideal.

There’s no concern for his early-season availability, but we never want to see rookies falling behind schedule in training camp with how important the reps are for building trust with the coaching staff.

🥇 Bryce Young gets the starting nod

This is unsurprising, yet still good to hear. A lot of the QBs going around Young in drafts have legitimate risks of not starting and/or getting benched, so this helps solidify Young as a worthwhile selection in Punt QB builds.

🌡️ It’s hot in New York

Jalin Hyatt left practice for “heat-related” reasons yesterday, but he’s fine. Hyatt is free in drafts right now, which seems wrong. I’m sprinkling him in on my drafts right now.

🐶 Zach Ertz placed on PUP

While we don’t want to overreact to these camp PUP designations that can be changed quickly, it’s a good reminder that Ertz is an oft-injured, 32-year-old veteran and Trey McBride is still free in most draft formats.

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🔪 Kadarius Toney undergoes surgery. He’s expected back by Week 1 and looks to be in good spirits.

🧔 Arthur Smith is rocking a new look. Hopefully this “lifestyle change” means more passing, too.

😍 Josh Allen has fans. You love to see it.

📺 Betting on the Super Bowl in July?! That’s where the money is made.

🤏 Deuce Vaughn is tiny. Confirmed.

💔 Travis Kelce tried to shoot his shot with Taylor Swift. Maybe have Donna call in a favor next time?

⚡️They’re a Super Bowl Contender if things go right. But will things go right?

🤑 Cole Kmet gets paid. Don’t let Saquon Barkley see these numbers.

👌 Hopkins looking smooth at camp. As expected.

Draft plenty of wide receivers is the way to play it in ‘23. But which has the best shot at breaking out and carrying our squads? Dwain tackles how to find them for the upcoming season…

Identifying breakout performers can drastically increase your chances of winning in fantasy football. Look no further than 2022, where Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk drafters enjoyed WR1 returns on WR3 and WR4 price tags in drafts.

That difference between performance and ADP added up to the second and fifth-best advance rates in Best Ball Mania III at the WR position.

The beauty of the WR position is that it is TALENT DRIVEN, which makes it one of the more predictable breakout positions.

At RB, we still have to worry about pesky coaching preferences for rotations and committees. However, starting WRs don’t rotate much, and if they are good, their QBs get them the ball.

I love to watch the film as much as the next analyst, but I assume that NFL QBs understand who the best players on the field are better than me. No matter how bad a QB is, they still have far more experience than me and are getting coaching I have never had.

Plus, they want to be successful, and success comes by targeting players who get open, understand coverages, make the right adjustments, and make plays with the ball in their hands. Targets are earned.

So, let’s dive into some breakout wide receivers for 2023.

💥 2023 Breakout WR Candidates

🥇 Tier 1

The WRs in Tier 1 have strong talent profiles plus an opportunity to earn ample volume in their offense.

✈ Garrett Wilson | Year 2 | Jets

Wilson was the 21st-ranked overall fantasy WR last season, averaging 12.8 points per game. His 85.9 PFF receiving grade was the fifth-highest by a rookie since 2011. Here are his rookie-season comps:

• Odell Beckham Jr. (91.2)
• Justin Jefferson (90.5)
• Terry McLaurin (86.5)
• Michael Thomas (86.3)

His 23% TPRR and 1.85 YPRR were WR2 and WR3-worthy. Wilson is worthy of an early Round 2 pick in fantasy.

⚜ Chris Olave | Year 2 | Saints

Olave delivered a top-24 finish last season with a 26% TPRR (WR1-worthy), 2.42 YPRR (WR1-worthy) and an 82.9 PFF receiving grade (elite for a rookie). Other WRs to put up similar numbers across those three categories as rookies:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Odell Beckham Jr.
• Doug Baldwin

Some are worried that Michael Thomas will hold the young stud back, but don’t count me as one of them.

Olave looks like a heat-seeking missile aimed at WR1 stardom.

🐅 Tee Higgins | Year 4 | Bengals

Higgins has WR3, WR2 and WR2 finishes on his resume heading and plays on a pass-first offense with one of the best QBs in the league. His PFF receiving grades, TPRR and YPRR marks over his career resemble something closer to a WR3.

However, that could be due to Chase playing opposite of him.

Regardless, T.Y. Hilton started his career with a WR3, WR2 and WR2 finish and popped a WR1 campaign in his next full season.

Get More Breakout WR Candidates!

Neublous backfields, ambiguous passing games…projections, and ADPs won’t always tell us who’s the best bet in any offense. But Chris Allen dove into the data to find a few dilemmas he’s pondering and how to play them given the market.

I need a crystal ball or access to a spy network.

I realize it sounds dramatic, but think about what you could accomplish. Or how many situations you could avoid or diffuse.

Or, in my case, which player to draft so I have a better shot at winning BBM IV.

I've come across a few dilemmas where my squad's playoff potential hinges on making the right choice. But training camp nuggets and vibes are all we have. I'll lay out a few worth monitoring, what we know, and how I'm playing it as we head into draft season.

📝 Quick Notes on Process

Normally, this is where I’d go through some convoluted (read: super cool) process and post a scatter plot highlighting some trend (again, really cool stuff) to get everyone on the same page.

Luckily, I didn’t need to for this exercise. All I needed to do was scroll through social media.

But there’s a measurable effect of these debates in best ball drafts. Since Jakob brought them up, let’s use the Miami backfield as an example:

• Devon Achane (ADP: 118.6)
• Raheem Mostert (171.0)
• Jeff Wilson (179.5)

The rookie has the hype, but drafters can’t decide between the two vets. Even our rankings are too close to call.

It didn’t take me long to find similar ADP clusters. And the Fantasy Life crew will update the projections if any news gives us more insight into how targets and touches will shake out. But, for now, let’s see what makes the most sense for a few of these dilemmas.

🦅 Who’s the Eagles’ RB1?

Imagine if you knew which rusher Nick Sirianni wanted to carry the load for Philadelphia this season.

While Hurts was still healthy last year, the Eagles ran the fifth-most plays inside their opponent’s red zone (155). Of those 155 attempts, 104 were runs (most in the league). The next closest team was Atlanta at 86.

In short, the Eagles’ rushing game was conducive to fantasy points. Their rushing EPA (0.072) was greater than Kirk Cousins’ passing EPA (0.069). But after a busy offseason, their running game has fantasy gamers taking sides.

❓ What do we know?

• D’Andre Swift: 77.3 ADP
• Rashaad Penny: 109.4
• Kenneth Gainwell: 165.3
• Boston Scott: 216.0

Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny at the start of free agency while Miles Sanders was still on the roster. Meanwhile, the trade for D’Andre Swift came together when Detroit drafted Jahmyr Gibbs.

Conjecture would suggest Penny was a larger priority, but the open opportunity within the offense offers more than what their contracts say.

After telling people not to draft him, Sanders posted a top-3 mark in EPA per attempt on early downs and was 13th in rush yards over expected (RYOE). He generated the fifth-most first downs of any RB and kept Philadelphia’s offense on schedule.

They’ll need a repeat performance from one of the two to stay on top of the NFC.

📊 How I’m Playing It

I’ve been targeting Penny in either pure Zero RB builds or if I’ve already acquired 2-3 solid starters. Before his Week 5 injury, his usage closely aligned with Sanders.

Swift had access to a similar offensive line as Sanders from a blocking standpoint but had average marks in RYOE and only five more explosive runs than Zack Moss. Meanwhile, in the first month of the season, Penny was first in yards after contact per attempt and top 10 in explosive runs.

And I’ll take some confirmation bias to go with my thoughts.

Swift’s receiving ability overlaps with Gainwell, and Sanders doesn’t provide the same punch to move the chains in short-yardage situations.

With Hurts targeting the RB position at the lowest rate last season, Swift would have to overcome multiple obstacles to pay off his current ADP.

Two More Situations Chris Is Monitoring!

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