😱 10 Teams Get Another Chance

Like a little brother who just lost in Mario Kart, we demand a rematch…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we’re asking for your feedback.

Juicy rematches with big point potential
Rankings Roundtable: Are we buying Minshew Mania?
The Walkthrough: Rashee Rice, target earner.
QUICK HITTER: Another game-time decision
DFS Stacks: Goff & Company
Fantasy Bingo: Geoff with more winning plays for Week 14
It’s 12/9. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…

We all feel an extra spark in the air when facing off against a league mate for the second time in one season, right?

For the loser, there’s the looming possibility of a ‘comeback’ in the air, while the winner aims to bury their opponent with the final nail in the coffin. Simply put, who doesn’t love a good rematch??

Well, in Week 14, we have 10 NFL opponents facing off in their own rematches:

Panthers / Saints: Week 2 - Saints W
Buccaneers / Falcons: Week 7 - Falcons W
Eagles / Cowboys: Week 9 - Eagles W
Lions / Bears: Week 11 - Lions W
Seahawks / 49ers: Week 12 - 49ers W

And for at least some of these games, hopes are high that we might witness a few high-scoring fantasy repeats. So, for our rosters’ sake, I demand a juicy rematch!

🧃 PHI @ DAL

It’s been five weeks since they’ve last played each other, but the Eagles and Cowboys are poised for another high-scoring game.

In Week 9, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both found their way into the Cowboys’ end zone. And DAL was able to return the favor with big outings from CeeDee Lamb (11 rec, 191 yds) and Jalen Tolbert (49 yds, 1 TD).

But the player I’m most excited for in this matchup is the tightest of ends: Jake Ferguson.

Ferguson has scored 5 TDs this year. One was against PHI, where he caught a total of 7 balls for 91 yards. Ferguson also has only three games with more than 5 catches this season. And you guessed it, one of those games was against PHI. Are we seeing a pattern here?

With the Eagles ranked 24th against the TE position and 32nd against WRs, I expect a repeat offense from Ferguson & co. on Sunday night. #juicy

🧃 SEA @ SF

For this rematch, there’s good news and there’s bad news. The good is everything to do with the 49ers. In Week 12, SF fed fantasy managers a hefty serving of scores from the likes of Christian McCaffrey (19 car, 114 yds, 2 TDs), Deebo Samuel (79 yds, 1 TD), and Brandon Aiyuk (50 yds, 1 TD).

After SEA just allowed DAL to swarm their end zone in Week 13, I don’t expect this TD train to end any time soon. Fire up your 49e- ooh, wait.

So, the bad part…

In their last matchup, the 49ers’ defense absolutely s-m-o-t-h-e-r-e-d SEA. DK Metcalf (3 rec, 32 yards), Tyler Lockett (3 rec, 20 yds), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2 rec, 41 yds) COMBINED for a total of eight catches and 103 yards.

Uhh…. Let’s hope for their sake, this rematch isn’t quite so one-sided.

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 14.

The final week of (most) fantasy regular seasons is finally upon us.

To help you navigate the treacherous waters of the final push for the fantasy playoffs, our expert rankers have put a spotlight on their favorite positional values for Week 14 and why they differ so much from the consensus.

🐴 WR - Michael Pittman (Colts) at Bengals

Business is booming for Pittman with Gardner Minshew under center, averaging a mouth-watering 11.1 targets and 18.7 fantasy points per contest. The 26-year-old wideout only has one target share below 31% in his last six outings.

Historical comps with a similar profile to Pittman have averaged 20.7 points per game with a WR4 finish based on data from the last 12 seasons. Despite all this goodness, Pittman continues to lag in fantasy rankings across the industry for some reason.

The Colts carry an above-average team total (22.5) on the Week 14 slate and get a juicy matchup against a troubled Bengals secondary that is now also without Cam Taylor-Britt. Cincinnati allows the fifth-most passing yards per contest (270).

I have Pittman eight spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus rankings this weekend.

Dwain

⚒ WR - Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Seahawks

I’m the highest-ranked on Deebo at WR9. I think he goes off this week.

Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his eight full games this year, he has 680 yards and six TDs on 48 targets and 24 carries.

That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but it’s not far off either.

Against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, Samuel had 7-79-0 receiving on nine targets with 4-15-1 rushing.

Freedman

🤠 WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) vs Eagles

Cooks struggled to find his role in the offense during the first month of the season, but he’s scored in five of seven games since the team’s embarrassing Week 5 loss to the 49ers:

Week 6: 4-36-1 (PPR WR20)
Week 8: 3-49-1 (WR29)
Week 9: 1-7-0 (WR95)
Week 10: 9-173-1 (WR3)
Week 11: 3-32-0 (WR50)
Week 12: 4-72-1 (WR21)
Week 13: 4-45-1 (WR21)

Yes, Cooks only has more than five targets in one of these games, meaning he’s been especially reliant on big plays and TDs.

Also, yes, these sorts of fantasy-friendly opportunities have been readily available inside of the league’s top-ranked scoring offense. Dak Prescott is one of just six QBs completing at least 60% of their passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season; Cooks has earned weekly upside WR3 treatment EVEN BEFORE CONSIDERING THE SMASH SPOT HE NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN.

The Eagles have allowed opposing WR groups to score an average of 50 (!) PPR points against them this season. The Commanders (44) and Buccaneers (41) round out the top three worst defenses against the position, and they aren’t particularly close to Philly.

I’d be shocked if the Eagles let CeeDee Lamb get going to a similar degree as their first matchup (11-191-0), meaning Cooks should be far more involved than he was in his two-target Week 9 performance. I’m starting the long-time stud receiver ahead of WRs with major QB and/or weather concerns like Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp this week.

Who Else Does the Team Like for Week 14?!?

A Week 14 preview breaking down an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in?

Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 14…

Patrick Mahomes faces a Bills defense that was very strong at the start of the year but hasn’t been as effective recently. Although, Buffalo still has an effective pass rush, which will likely keep Mahomes on the move, even behind an elite offensive line.

But Mahomes is generally on the move these days… because he hasn’t been able to execute his first reads. Mahomes is attempting a first-read throw on just 53% of his dropbacks, which ranks 31 of 34 qualifying QBs.

A low first-read attempt rate is often associated with QBs who are struggling in the traditional dropback passing game, like Zach Wilson (QB30), Russell Wilson (QB32), and Justin Fields (QB34). It is fair to say that the Chiefs’ traditional dropback game is struggling… it’s just hard to put that on Mahomes.

When Mahomes executes the primary design of the play, he’s avoiding mistakes as well as any QB in the league. Only Kirk Cousins has a lower failed play rate on first-read dropbacks.

To summarize, Mahomes is excellent on first-read dropbacks but frequently moves off the primary design of the play. That's probably related to the lack of reliable WRs.

Rashee Rice is reliable… but maddeningly, he’s not a full-time WR. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a playing time bump, but only to 69% route participation. Still, with a 2.41 YPRR, he’s beginning to feel inevitable.

Even if Rice’s playing time remains steady, he has the potential for the playcalling to shift his way. Right now, he’s truly earning many of his targets. Over the last two weeks, Rice has seen 19 non-screen targets. But only 47% of them have come on first-reads, which is wildly low.

This situation is frustrating. Rice is dramatically outperforming his role. But this situation is also exciting. The Chiefs desperately need WR to step up, and they have a rookie who is flashing as a legitimate target earner. Eventually, Rice is likely to pop in a big way. Why not this week?

🥇 Contrarian option: Detroit Lions

📝 Facts:

The Detroit Lions are averaging 27.25 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the league, and are doing it with the second-lowest rate of field goal drives at just 1.08 per game (MIA leads with .92).

Of all tight ends with 100+ routes, Sam LaPorta is 6th in the league in Targets per Route Run (TPRR) at 24%, and he’s doing it on 80% route participation, which is better than all but T.J. Hockenson above him.

While Jared Goff is no world-beater, he is incredibly consistent and has had five games of 20+ fantasy points this year to show some upside for a modest price when the matchup is right like it is this week.

📊 Stack info (DraftKings)

💰 Salary and projections:

Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): This option sits at the top of the price scale at $20,700 and is distinguished by a ceiling of 61.5, suggesting the highest potential for peak performance out of the three.

Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond): With a $17,600 investment, the Ceiling slightly dips to 50.2. The trade-off for the lower price is a modest decrease in the ultimate scoring potential.

Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta): The most accessible at $15,500, it presents a Ceiling of 45.1. While being the most budget-friendly, it understandably comes with the lowest expected top-end scoring performance.

While there is a clear premium on the top-end stack here, you do get the benefit of justified drops in cost and ownership as you go through the different combos. It’s worth noting that Combo is not necessarily all that expensive in terms of the slate, so it should be the default you land on.

🧮 Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta):

Top Finish: At 9.5%, this combination leads the charge, indicating it has the strongest chance among the three to finish at the very top.

60+% Potential: With a robust 19.4% probability, it illustrates a significant opportunity for achieving high-scoring games.

Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond):

Top Finish: Holds a 1.4% chance, which is substantially lower than Combo 1 but still demonstrates potential.

60+% Potential: The likelihood stands at 2.5%, which is notably less than Combo 1 but not negligible.

Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta):

Top Finish: At a mere 0.1%, this combo has a very slim chance of clinching the top finish, reflecting its status as the underdog.

60+% Potential: Similarly, the probability here is just 0.50%, indicating a much lower expectation for high-scoring performances.

🚀 Combo 1: Premium Upside

Represents the pinnacle of performance within this group. Its high Ceiling and Top Finish percentage make it suitable for those aiming for the highest possible outcome in their fantasy lineup.

🔥 Combo 2: Even Middle

Strikes a balance between affordability and potential, offering a reasonable Ceiling for those looking to save on costs without entirely forgoing the chance for a high score.

🤷‍♂️ Combo 3: Budget for Spending Elsewhere

As the most economical selection, it is apt for players looking to spread their budget across other areas of their lineup, albeit with a recognition of its lower Ceiling and Top Finish likelihood.

Not only are all of the Lion's options relatively cheap, but they are all very low-owned. Not a single one of these combos comes with a sum ownership of above 10%, making them a perfect option for those who want to absorb high ownership elsewhere in their lineup. Look to utilize this stack in large-field GPPs for easy leverage.

Patrick Mahomes? A Contrarian? I’m Listening…

Of course, we all like fantasy football. And who doesn’t like to hang out and play a few rounds of bingo? Well, now you can do both! Our friends over at Rival Fantasy have a new format for fantasy gamers to check out, and Geoff has some plays to start you off with a winning strategy.

If you’re new to Rival Fantasy, a quick overview:

“A bingo card costs $1 and is played on a 5×5 grid with 25 random achievements, such as 3 Total TDs, >50 Rushing Yards, and many more. If no one wins, the jackpot rolls over...”

In Fantasy Bingo, we are building a no-salary restriction roster and trying to hit on an array of achievements (some easy, some difficult) to get a chance at hitting a five in a row or four corners – and getting a share of the jackpot.

Let’s dive into some Week 14 plays.

🤝 QB/WR stack: Gardner Minshew and Michael Pittman

The Bengals’ defense entered the week having allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Cincinnati will also be without their top cornerback, so expect Michael Pittman to continue dominating. He’s gone for at least 8 catches in five straight starts and posted 100+ yards in two straight games.

😤 RB: Rachaad White, James Cook

White is third among NFL RBs in catches and put up 6 receptions for 65 yards the last time he played Atlanta. I expect he’ll once again outperform as a receiver and potentially hit some Bingo achievements along the way.

Cook is fourth in explosive run rate (10+ yards) and has averaged 16.5 carries over his last two games. The Chiefs are 21st in success rate against the run making this a great spot to see some big plays from Cook.

💥 WR: Keenen Allen

Allen is a week removed from a hamstring injury and playing a Denver secondary that just gave up a 9-191-1 line to Nico Collins. Allen leads the league in targets (138) and has had some monster days already, going for over 150 yards twice.

📈 TE: Travis Kelce

Kelce has had success against Buffalo, going for 2 TDs against them in 2020 and catching 8 for 108 yards last season. He’s the TE projected with the highest yardage and reception totals on Fantasy Life and likely approaches his ceiling in targets, given how efficient the Bills offense is.

Try Fantasy Bingo TODAY!