š„ 2 Buy Low RBs Explode
It was only a matter of time...
I'd tell Arthur Smith how I feel but my mom told me if I didn't have something nice to say...
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- 4 crazy facts about the NFL season so far
- Bud Light Six Pack Recap: Fantasy takeaways from Week 4
- Is there a new RB1 in Jacksonville?
- Kendall's First Look. Early Bets for the week.
- MNF: Our Top Picks & Plays
- It's 10/3. Take it away Peter Overzet...
Fantasy football can be a cruel, cruel game.
Here are a few very real and very maddening facts about the 2022 season so far:
- Kyle Pitts is getting outscored by TaysomĀ HillĀ on a points-per-game basis
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is somehow outscoringĀ Jonathan Taylor
- Zach WilsonĀ has more receiving TDs in his New York career than Kenny Golladay
- The world begged Pete Carroll to Let Russ Cook, and instead, he's unlocked Geno Smith
I could keep going, but there's only so much triggering I can be responsible for on a Monday morning. Read on for six more fantasy takeaways from Week 4 and a full preview of MNF...
Only One TD? Easy...
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Eliot Crist is betting:Ā Rams +1.5
The Rams' defense is the number one defense in both EPA per rush attempt against and explosive pass rate against. They should control the line of scrimmage and force the 49ers to have consistent success play after play.Ā This is something the 49ers have struggled with this season, even with Trent Williams, as they rank just 23rd in play success rate this season.
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Every Monday, Pete will share his six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...
šŗ 1.Ā The Lions & Seahawks went nuclear
Remember when I was worried about this game disappointing? Um, ya, that looks idiotic in hindsight. Detroit and Seattle combined for 93 POINTS. Jared Goff (37.22 points) and Geno Smith (34.70 points) are currently the two highest-scoring QBs on the week heading into MNF. T.J. Hockenson went bonkers (8-179-2) on 12 targets, as did Rashaad Penny on the ground (17-151-2). The 1-3 Lions are now pacing for someĀ crazy, historical stats. Dan Campbell might not like it, but it's the stuff fantasy dreams are made of.
šŗ 2.Ā Austin Ekeler & Josh Jacobs rebound
Both Ekeler and Jacobs had gotten off to slow starts this season but bounced back in a big way yesterday. Ekeler gashed the Texans on both the ground (13-60-2) and through the air (6-49-1). Jacobs popped off as well, piling up 144 rushing yards and 2 TDs on a whopping 28 attempts. Jacobs' weekly 2022 production looks like cellphone bars. If you stayed the course on these two, congrats on the points.Ā
šŗ 3. Brutal RB injuries hit
It wouldn't be a day of NFL action without some injuries spoiling the fun. Javonte Williams suffered a serious knee injury vs. the Raiders, and there is "not a lot of optimism surrounding the injury." This is absolutely brutal because the tea leaves are pointing toward a season-ending injury.Ā
Jonathan TaylorĀ also emerged from Week 4 with an injury, which is feared to be a dreaded high-ankle sprain. It's too early to speculate now, but a multi-week absence should be expected.Ā
We'll have more on how to handle the fallout from these situations in our waiver wire piece tomorrow.Ā It's only Week 4. Sigh.Ā
šŗ 4. Russ finally cooks, kinda
Wilson finally gave us a top-end scoring week while throwing for 237 yards and 2 TDs and also chipping in 4-29-1 on the ground. The Broncos dropped another game (and likely lost their star RB for the season), but it's a small relief to see Russ rebound after a truly dreadful start to the season. Just don't look at his stats compared to Geno's...damnit, you promised me you wouldn't look.
šŗ 5.Ā What happened to all of the WRs??
Just as we were letting the ink dry on our "WRs are all that matter" takes, no WR on the main slate had more than 25 points yesterday, while 10 RBs and TEs scored more than 25 points. All the high-end scoring happened on Thursday (Tyreek Hill 28.9 & Tee Higgins 28.4) or across the pond (Justin Jefferson 34). I bet Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel keep the island game trend going tonight.Ā
šŗ 6. The Kenny Pickett era begins
Well, Mike Tomlin finally capitulated and yanked the struggling Mitch Trubisky for the rookie. The good news: not a single one of Pickett's 13 passes hit the ground once he entered the game. The bad news: three of them went to the Jets. As a Pickett stan, it's my duty to let you know that two of the INTs were not his fault, and one was a tight throw where Chase Claypool could have fought harder for the ball. The main frustration here is that Tomlin didn't let Pickett get a full week to get ready for this game.Ā
š¤Ā Is there a new RB1 in Jacksonville?Ā He needs more touches.
š½Ā DK Metcalf scared the crap out of yesterday. We need a different color cart for this.
šĀ A Top 10 all time TE fantasy performance. Have yourself a day, TJ.
š¤Ā All this rookie does is score TDs. Four for four ain't bad.
šĀ What in the hell happened on this play? I guess you get an "A" for effort?
š”Ā Arthur Smith, what the hell are you doing? This is egregious.
šĀ The Jets social media team chose violence. Too good (and here's the backstory).
Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday Kendall drops by to give you her first look at the betting markets.Ā Ā
šøĀ Chargers (-3) vs. Browns
Justin Herbert is a far superior quarterback compared to Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but more importantly, RB Austin Ekeler is coming off a bounce-back game that shows how lethal this Chargers offense can be. Letās not try to reason with why the Chargers allowed the Texans to stay within striking distance, but instead, let's highlight Hebert throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns (even with his rib injury).
Los Angeles may be eyeing a return for superstar WR Keenan Allen after he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1. Allen was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, which is a great sign. I think this line moves slightly in favor of the Chargers as the week progresses. Even if the Browns get star pass rusher Myles Garrett back for Week 5 he will be limited, and I think the Chargers will put together a more complete game come Sunday in Cleveland.
šøĀ Lions Moneyline (+120) vs. Patriots
The Detroit Lions have to win one of these close games at some point, right? RIGHT. I like the moneyline here more than anything else going up against a very injured Patriots team.
The Lions put up 45 points in their loss to the Seahawks on Sunday in a high-scoring game. New England was without starting QB Mac Jones and hit an unfortunate bump when backup QB Brian Hoyer was taken out in the first quarter due to a concussion. If Mac Jones is unable to play this Sunday and rookie QB Bailey Zappe gets the nod, expect the Lions to be favored.Ā
The Lions entered Week 4 as the second-highest scoring team in the NFL (31.7 PPG) and if both playmakers in WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and WR DJ Chark return for this game then we can expect the same amount of (if not more) explosiveness. Plus, entering Week 4 the Patriots were ranked almost dead last in rush DVOA and towards the middle in pass DVOA. The Lions are better than their 1-3 record indicatesĀ
šøĀ Bengals (+3.5) vs. Ravens
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will always keep Baltimore in games, but their defense is 25th in EPA allowed per play. The Bengals are coming off a long rest after their TNF win against the Dolphins and I like snagging the half-point on the field goal before it moves.
Both teams are impressive, but offensively itās tough not to give the edge to QB Joe Burrow and Co.The Ravens secondary is allowing a league-high 353.3 passing yards per game and may not have an answer against Cincinnati. Plus, Cincinnatiās defense also has an edge ā theyāve held opposing offenses to 17.5 points per game.
We got ourselves a classic divisional matchup tonight with the Niners (-1.5) hosting the Rams. These are two teams with respectable defenses who would prefer to establish the run, which is how we end up with a *sad trombone* over/under of 42.5.
The Rams have basically zero playmakers outside Cooper Kupp, while the Niners are still re-adjusting to getting back together with their ex, Jimmy Garoppolo.Ā
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy,Ā DFS, andĀ bettingĀ perspective:Ā All odds viaĀ BetMGM
Anybody else think Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton would be perfect in a buddy cop show about two Americans who are working a case in London but have zero understanding of the British culture