👎 3 "Great" Games That Could Flop
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight 3 great games that could flop, Week 4 rankings updates, and the top DFS values for the week.
Let's just play all games in a dome...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:
- 3 great games that could flop
- Week 4 Rankings Update: Injury news, risers and fallers
- Dear Pete: Are NFL records meant to be broken?
- One Week Season: Top DFS value plays
- Matthew's Bold Call. You better get up early for this
- It's 10/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
As of right now, there's only one game on the Week 4 slate with a projected total over 50 points (Bills-Ravens) and only two others with totals over 46 (Seahawks-Lions) and (Browns-Falcons).
Theoretically, those should be the best games on the slate...and yet they each have some warts that could prevent the shootout environments we so desperately crave as fantasy players.
Not to be a buzzkill, but hear me out...
🌧️ Bills (-3) @ Ravens (51 o/u)
This one has all the makings of a high-flying shootout, but the weather is now threatening to muck it all up. As of now, forecasters expect the remnants of Hurricane Ian to hit Baltimore and continue through Tuesday. The forecast calls for heavy rain and strong wind gusts ranging between 15 to 20 mph.
Lots can change with the weather before kickoff, but it's important to keep an eye on the radar when setting lineups Sunday.
🚑 Seahawks (+3.5) @ Lions (48 o/u)
There's no concern about the weather inside the Ford Field dome, but the removal of both D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown from this game seriously dampens the upside scenarios on the fast track.
Oddly enough, the line hasn't budged much since the Lions announced their inactives. Though it seems silly to think St. Brown, who has been the engine of the passing game, doesn't hurt the scoring potential for the Lions and the entire game.
⏰ Browns (-1) @ Falcons (47.5 o/u)
Our guy JMToWin from One Week Season wrote about this game for us yesterday, and his note about both of these teams ranking bottom-five in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and red-zone PROE stood out to me.
It doesn't mean points won't be scored. But it means they could largely come through the running game (which makes sense considering how well Nick Chubb and Cordarrelle Patterson are playing). Passing speeds up games much more than running, and it's fair to worry that two run-heavy approaches could salt this clock away before we ever get a points bonanza.
Read on for Dwain's rankings update and which players are stepping into bigger roles this weekend...
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London, get ready 🗣
Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge on your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.
📈 Risers
📈 RB – Alvin Kamara
Kamara is questionable (ribs) but is expected to play after three limited practices. His utilization was elite in Week 3, and he could see more work in the passing game with Andy Dalton at the helm and Michael Thomas out.
Kamara moves back into low-end RB1 territory against the Vikings and has high-end RB1 upside if the ribs aren’t an issue.
📈 RB – Dalvin Cook
Cook (shoulder) was removed from the injury report after two full practices to end the week. He will start for the Vikings against the Saints in London. His utilization has been top-notch, and he was on his way to a breakout performance in Week 3 before the injury.
Cook carries some reinjury risk this weekend, making him a high-end RB2 rather than an RB1.
📈 RB – Miles Sanders
The Eagles will be without Boston Scott this weekend, providing Sanders with less competition for touches.
Sanders is a low-end RB2 against a stingy Jaguars run defense.
📈 WR – Mike Williams
After a setback in practice, Keenan Allen won’t play on Sunday. The Chargers' offense struggled in Week 3 with a banged-up Justin Herbert, but the QB got in two full practices to finish this week and appears to be in better shape.
Williams posted 25.3 points in Week 2 without Allen and is a mid-range WR2 this weekend against the Texans.
📈 WR – Joshua Palmer
Palmer has averaged 15.5 points with a 21% target share in three games without Keenan Allen dating back to last season.
Palmer moves into mid-range WR3 territory this weekend against Houston.
📈 WR – Chris Olave
Olave likely won’t have Jameis Winston tossing him deep balls, but Michael Thomas won’t play. What the rookie loses in air yards, he picks up in reduced target competition. He already has back-to-back 30%-plus target shares.
Olave is a low-end WR2 against the Vikings in London on Sunday morning.
📈 TE – T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson has started the year quietly with Amon-Ra St. Brown bogarting a third of the Lions' passing targets. However, with the Sun God and D’Andre Swift out in Week 4, Hockenson could shine. His 76% route participation and 20% targets per route run are both TE1-worthy.
Hockenson is a mid-range TE1 with upside in Week 4 against a poor Seattle defensive unit.
📉 Fallers
📉 QB – Jared Goff
Goff will be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds are questionable due to ankle injuries.
Seattle still offers a good matchup, but Goff drops to mid-range QB2 status.
📉 RB – Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is questionable due to a quad injury that could keep him out of Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. It is a late game, so fantasy managers need a backup plan. D’Onta Foreman is probably the No. 1 option behind CMC, but it could be a gross committee with Chuba Hubbard, who could take passing downs.
McCaffrey falls out of the top five this weekend and carries a much lower floor than usual.
Foreman and Hubbard are backup options but should be avoided.
🤔 Monitoring
🤔 QB – Kyler Murray
Marquise Brown (foot) is questionable, but we could see Rondale Moore return.
If Brown misses the game, Murray downgrades to QB7.
🤔 WR – Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch & Rondale Moore
Brown is questionable with a foot injury, and Moore (hamstring) has a shot at returning after three limited practices.
If Brown and Moore are out, Dortch moves into low-end WR3 territory.
If Brown and Moore are active, he is a WR5.
Rondale Moore is a boom-bust WR4 if he plays.
💥 The WR set to explode on Sunday. I dare you to fade the New Dad Narrative.
🐔 Matthew's BOLD call of the week. Get ready, London.
💰 Tap into a DFS Pro's cheat sheet. Everything you need to dominate DFS this week, for FREE.
⬆️ The RB everyone thinks is going over his rushing attempts prop. Interesting.
🐬 An update from Tua. Great to hear.
🚑 The Giants are in rough shape at WR. Woof.
💪 Throwback Saturday. Reggie White was built different.
Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Peter is here to help.
Dear Pete, in today's NFL, with how the usage and perceived value of RBs, will Emmitt Smith's rushing record be broken?
Consider this. Smith rushed for 18,355 yards over 15 seasons. That's 1,224 yards per season. The next closest active players are Mark Ingram (7,878), Zeke Elliott (7,386), and Derrick Henry (6,797). Only Elliott averages over 1,000 yards per season. But, he'd have to keep that pace for 10 more years.
The younger backs of Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor don't average 1,000 rushing yards per season. With a new 17-game schedule, that may change. If so, Taylor might have a shot, as he has 2,980 yards over 3 seasons (a 993-yard average). Still, he'd have to maintain that average for 15 more seasons (unlikely) or perhaps increase his yards per season by 25% (also unlikely).
Records are made to be broken, but this one seems like one that is going to stand for a long time. What are your thoughts? — Doug Wolf
DEAR DOUG WOLF: First of all, great name. If I didn’t know any better I’d think you were a Private Detective in a British crime novel.
Actually, you might really be a detective the more I think about it. I don’t know anyone else sick enough to pursue the mystery of the disappearing bellcow RB during Week 4 of the NFL season.
I think you’re onto something, though. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the league shift away from ground-and-pound offenses to aerial attacks where WRs are king and RBs are more optimally deployed through the air.
It would be basically impossible for any current NFL RB to surpass Smith’s record, considering the average career of an NFL RB is now 2.57 years. Yes, you read that correctly. 2.57 years.
Interestingly, we are finally seeing this tidal change carry over to fantasy drafts. We wrote ad nauseam this offseason about how the Zero RB draft strategy can take advantage of this changing dynamic, and the start of the 2022 season has played out accordingly.
By this time next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 75% of first-round picks dedicated to pass-catchers.
That’s a long way of saying that you are safe to buy that Emmitt Smith autographed box of Wheaties without worrying about his rushing record getting toppled.
The real question is whether one of these new superstar WRs has a chance to surpass Jerry Rice’s insane 22,895 career receiving yards mark.
At his current pace, sophomore sensation Ja’Marr Chase would only need to average 1400 yards for 15 straight years...
Welp, I guess records aren't meant to be broken.
Dwprix is a research expert at OWS, and every other week he'll be dropping by the Fantasy Life office to give you his best DFS value plays of the week.
Pricing can change from Draftkings to Fanduel. Recognizing what plays are better values on each site based on scoring rules and points per dollar can create a sizable edge when building rosters. Here are some Week 4 plays best utilized on Draftkings or Fanduel.
😎 Josh Allen
- FD $8.9k, 14.8% // DK $8.4k, 16.8% //Value on FD
Allen’s price went down on Fanduel by $100 but up $200 on Draftkings. He takes up 16.8% of the cap on Draftkings but only 14.8% on Draftkings.
😎 Nick Chubb
- FD $9.2k,15.3% // DK $7.9k, 15.8% //Value on DK
Chubb is the biggest RB value on Draftkings based on his average points this season (23.6) and price this week. He’s the highest-priced RB on Fanduel but only the 5th highest on Draftkings. Chubbs hit the 100-yard bonus on Draftkings in two out of three games.
😎 Mack Hollins
- FD $5.8k, 9.7% // DK $4.2k, 8.4% //Value on DK
Hollins is the 51st-priced WR on Draftkings and 34th on Fanduel. He takes up 1.3% less of the cap on Draftkings. He’s the biggest WR value on Draftkings based on average points this season (15.7) and price this week.
😎 Allen Lazard:
- FD $6.0k, 10.0% // DK $6.2k, 12.4% //Value on FD
Lazard takes up only 10.0% of the cap on Fanduel but 12.4% on Draftkings. Even though there’s a bigger salary cap on Fanduel, he’s still $200 less than his Draftkings price. Lazard played in two games and scored in both.
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