📈 3 Sneaky Rookies Climbing Depth Charts

Note to self: don't accept a "boating" invite from Derek Carr...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Rotopass:

3 rookies climbing depth charts
Matthew on The Tonight Show!
An insane Derek Carr/Davante Adams story
Chris Allen's premier ematchup of the week: GB vs. MIN
The sharp group chat: 3 Week 1 bets
Cooterdoodle's Buy, Sell, Hold
It’s 9/7. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

We're so close to football and yet it still seems so far away.

Yesterday, we received a handful of bread crumbs surrounding rookies who are climbing up the depth chart. And even though we are on record as depth chart skeptics, they carry more weight when it involves rookies, who are traditionally buried on the chart until they prove themselves.

Here are 3 rookie depth chart moves that I think are notable...

📈 Rachaad White (now 2nd RB on Bucs depth chart). We've waxed poetically about White all summer--including in Sam's waiver wire piece yesterday--so it's encouraging to see him officially leapfrog Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Gio Bernard for the No. 2 job behind Leonard Fournette. Combine this with Greg Auman's recent comments about scaling back Fournette's workload, and you have the recipe for a perfect sleeper.

📈 Jaylen Warren (now 2nd RB on Steelers depth chart): While many assumed Benny Snell would be the No. 2 behind Najee Harris, Warren impressed throughout the preseason. If Warren is the true 1-for-1 Harris replacement (which seems possible), he should be on your waiver wire speed dial. These pure handcuff backs often go overlooked (think Mike Davis behind CMC in 2020) but have massive contingent value.

📈 Kenny Pickett (now 2nd QB on Steelers depth chart): Despite opening up as the 3rd QB behind both Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky on the team's first depth chart, Mike Tomlin and the team confirmed he had actually jumped Rudolph. Matthew is in on Trubisky (and I agree he's an upgrade on Big Ben), but I still maintain Pickett will be starting sooner rather than later.

If you're looking to stay up to date on all of the latest NFL news and how it's impacting the fantasy landscape, there is no better deal than Matthew Berry's Rotopass subscription, which includes a bundle of great fantasy sites--4for4, Footballguys, Rotoviz, Sharp Football Analysis, Dynasty League Football, and Rotowire--for the low price of $79.95.

It's legitimately an insane deal. Across all of those sites, you get access to weekly ranks and waiver wire ads, as well as tools and content for DFS and sports betting.

ICYMI...Matthew on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon!

.@MatthewBerryTMR is 𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 the highest grossing actor of all-time worldwide (on a per movie basis) for his role in @Marvel’s #AvengersEndgame 😂 #FallonTonight
— The Tonight Show (@FallonTonight)
Sep 7, 2022

What a great experience. I hope you tune in tonight 11:35pm / 10:35pm CT @nbc … @jimmyfallon@FallonTonight#FallonTonight 📸: Todd Owyoung/NBC @toddowyoung
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Sep 7, 2022

🌊 An absolutely insane Davante Adams/Derek Carr story. It involves a wild whitewater rafting trip.

🔑 Stash these players before kickoff. Nice list of situations to capitalize on here.

🚑 Could James Robinson really play Week 1? Here's an update.

👨 This Dad is the ultimate fantasy player. Love his energy.

💼 What it looks like when you explain your new responsibilities on Sundays to your partner. Facts.

💪 When you start your draft RB-RB-RB-RB. What an insane shirt.

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, new Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the Vikings/Packers Week 1 tilt...

Packers (-1.5) @ Vikings - over/under 47

We’re all wondering what life without Davante Adams will be like for the Packers’ passing game. Last year alone, he led the team with 84 first-down receptions via Sports Info Solutions. Allen Lazard was second with 28.

Green Bay has been top-12 in neutral passing rate since 2020. They need reliable receiving options for a chance to compete in the NFC North. Luckily, they have two established options already in place.

No, I’m not talking about ‘Quadzilla’ and ‘The Quadfather.’ But they’ll play a role. A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones are the Packers’ best receiving options heading into the season. Their veteran status doesn’t earn them preference. However, what they did as pass-catchers in 2021 gives us a clue as to how Green Bay can operate this year.

At first blush, neither were target hogs.

Jones slipped into the Top 12 in RB target share despite missing two games. But his targets per route run (24.5%) were greater than Travis Kelce’s or CeeDee Lamb’s. Jones saw more looks per route in the red zone than Austin Ekeler. And Dillon’s efficiency complemented Jones’s opportunity. The man with a Twitter account dedicated to his legs was 27th in expected points added (EPA) per target amongst all WRs, RBs, and TEs. He was behind only Javonte Williams in red-zone EPA per play.

Green Bay’s answers to powering the offense are right here.

Now, don’t get me wrong. The WRs will be a factor. But the Vikings’ defense may not be enough resistance to keep Rodgers from throwing all game. We’ll need Minnesota’s offense to take a step forward, and their offseason adjustments put them in a position to do it.

We’ve seen disciples of Sean McVay leave the nest with varying success. But Kevin O’Connell has a leg up on his former colleagues. He’s a former NFL QB turned QB coach, and his experiences allow him to adjust to new personnel quickly. O’Connell was also Washington’s quarterbacks coach with Kirk Cousins in 2017. So O’Connell has the familiarity and the schematic influences to improve the Vikings’ offense. And we can look to the Rams’ offense to see how things can change in 2022.

Minnesota has been below the league average in neutral pace the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Rams have been in turbo mode in plays run and passing rate. It might seem scary putting the ball in Cousins’s hands more often, but he’s top-10 in completion percentage over expectation since 2019. And if you don’t believe in Kirk, believe in his pass-catchers.

Since July, NFL and fantasy football analysts have debated Justin Jefferson in the ‘Cooper Kupp role.’ We know what Jefferson can do. I’m more interested in Dalvin Cook’s involvement in their aerial attack. In 2020, Cook was fifth in missed tackles per reception. He took a step back last year with ankle and shoulder injuries but should have a more prominent role in 2022.

Each week during the season Cooterdoodle will walk us through the fantasy trade market, but for today's edition she's going to share some draft regrets and players to watch...

Drafts have ended, but that’s only the beginning. It’s time to start prepping for trades and waivers. First things first: identify the regretful picks of your draft. Whether you panicked or bad news broke after the draft, which players are you ready to dump? “It’s not you, Ronald Jones. It’s me.” Past potential be damned, sometimes you just need to move on...

💔 Young Love: Isaiah Spiller

Young love can cloud our judgment. I fell for the idea of Spiller taking over behind Austin Ekeler and bringing my team to the championship. Not only is Joshua Kelly in the way, but the Chargers have now signed RB Sony Michel. I can’t bring myself to hold on to Spiller all season. He’s a solid rookie with a great team, but in redraft, there are other guys I would rather clog up my bench. It’s not you, Isaiah. It’s me.

⏰ Wrong Place Wrong Time: Mike Gesicki

There are rumors that Miami’s new head coach may not be a good fit for Gesicki. It makes me sicki (Editor's note: we'll allow it, but we aren't happy about it). Sometimes a good player gets stuck in a bad relationship. The Dolphins have turned down trade offers and plan to stick it out with Gesicki, but it seems that he may not play the role we had hoped for. Wrong place, wrong time. Love ended too soon. Mike, I think we should see other people.

📉 Falling Out: Ronald Jones

We’ve all rostered Jones at some point. He may have even saved you once or twice last season. But with Jones on the bubble in Kansas City behind guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, I’m getting cold feet. I know it hurts, but you want to win, don’t you? I can’t blame you for holding on, but I’ve got to let go. I love you RoJo, I’m just not IN love with you anymore.

It’s time to find new players to fall head over heels with in 2022. Keep an eye on these three in Week 1:

🔭 Jameis Winston. He’s goofy and still trying to prove himself after interception-gate in 2019, but Winston has an elite WR corp with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and vet Jarvis Landry.

🔭 Rashaad Penny. If you’re worried about Seattle this year, I get it. But Penny is the RB1 and looked great in his last 5 games of 2021 where he rushed for six TDs. See a Penny, pick it up.

🔭 Gerald Everett. Tight ends are hard to predict. If you don’t have one of the elite 3, you’re gambling. I’m placing my bet on Everett. Watch how he performs, but I wouldn’t blame you for targeting him before gametime.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what they came up with for Week 1...

💰 Ravens vs Jets Over 44.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Both teams' starting QBs missed time last year in Lamar Jackson and Zach Wilson, but it had opposite impacts on offenses. The Ravens averaged seven fewer points without Lamar Jackson, while the Jets averaged three more points per game without Zach Wilson. In fact, during the five games without Wilson, Jets games averaged a whopping 62 points per game.

The Jets may have brought in young talent on defense, but it will take time for that to mesh on the field. Last year the Jets were bottom five in nearly every defensive metric, while the Ravens’ defense was dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. Expect some fireworks in this one.

💰 Travis Kelce Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

If the Patriots inflated balls the way sportsbooks are inflating Travis Kelce’s receiving prop number, Tom Brady’s legacy would never have been questioned. Kelce is coming into his age 33 season, and his preseason usage has his workload in question.

While he will still be a vocal point in the offense, even a 10% decrease in snaps will make it hard for him to beat this number consistently, and that's before you factor in the matchup. Last season the Cardinals allowed only one tight end to go over this number the entire season, giving up just 36.5 yards per game to tight ends.

💰 Matthew Stafford Over 269.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

While there may be some public concerns about Stafford’s elbow, Sean McVay said he would be comfortable with Stafford throwing the ball 55 times per game if need be. The elbow concerns and the Bills' number one ranked 2021 pass defense is why we get such a low number on Stafford in week one.

However, when you dive in deeper the Bills only played three top 14 passing offenses in 2021 and those opposing quarterbacks averaged 342 yards per game against them. In addition Bills star corner Tre’Davious White will miss this one and is replaced by a rookie in Kalir Elam. Stafford went over this number in 71% of his 2021 games and this provides a good ladder bet opportunity as well.

“Don’t draft Christian McCaffrey because he’ll get hurt”
“What if he doesn’t?”
“You’ll probably win your fantasy football league”
“Oh. Cool”
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Sep 5, 2022