🤥 A Miraculous Return?? (DON’T BUY IT)
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we cover the potential return of Aaron Rodgers, Week 13 rankings and tiers, Freedman's Favorites, and more!
Aaron Rodgers just needs to get his own podcast, it’d be a much easier way to get attention…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Aaron Rodgers returning? Sigh…
- Week 13 Rankings & Tiers: Two smash plays
- Top RB bench stashes
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 11/30. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Me, every time Aaron Rodgers shoehorns his way into the news:
Indeed, here we go again because yesterday, the Jets opened the 21-day practice window for Aaron Rodgers.
And yes, just to be clear, this is the same Aaron Rodgers who tore his Achilles 79 days ago.
At least this time, the Rodgers discourse centers around actual news and not just egregiously optimistic soundbites from the Pat McAfee show, but any legitimate suggestion of a return still strains credulity.
Rodgers teasing a comeback when the Jets had an outside chance at the playoffs was vaguely more justifiable, but let’s check in on their current odds according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator:
Are we really supposed to believe that Rodgers is going to rush back from a serious injury and jeopardize his entire NFL future to play one or two meaningless games for a team that is currently tied for the second-worst record in the entire AFC?
Ya, I’m not buying it, but kudos to Rodgers for consistently finding ways to stay in the news cycle.
As for what opening the practice window actually means, HC Robert Saleh told the media yesterday that this is “a progression in his rehab” and that he’s cleared for “functional football activity,” not contact.
As someone who holds a massive bag of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall shares across a bunch of fantasy formats, I’d love this miraculous return to actually happen.
But it’s about as likely as an NFL broadcast not showing Taylor Swift on screen when she’s in attendance at a Chiefs game.
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Speaking of first bets, Matt LaMarca has you covered in his TNF Betting Breakdown:
💰 LaMarca is betting: Zach Charbonnet o12.5 carries (-120, BetMGM)
“Over the past two contests, Charbonnet has played on 86% of the team’s snaps and handled 75% of the team’s rushing attempts. Those are bell-cow numbers. Charbonnet hasn’t been hugely productive in either contest, but he still had at least 14 carries in both.
There are some potential game script concerns, but the fact that Charbonnet still had 14 carries last week vs. the 49ers is a major positive. The Seahawks were blown out in that matchup, but Charbonnet still got his.”
It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 13 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on two RBs set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
💥 Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 - Bijan Robinson
Robinson has 38 rushing attempts and eight targets over the last two games, averaging 23 opportunities – fueling two top-12 fantasy finishes.
There is a chance Arthur Smith has finally realized that getting the ball to your best players typically aligns with the team goal of winning games. Unfortunately, Robinson’s underlying utilization percentages didn’t align with his increased opportunities in Week 12, with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson sniping snaps.
Ultimately, Week 12 looked much like Robinson’s season averages. That leaves the door open for a prompt rug pull if his touches were driven by game script or the length of drives when he was on the field. However, we have seen coaches base utilization on opportunity counts rather than percentages, which could be the case in Atlanta.
Robinson has given the coaching staff every reason to use him more. The Round 1 NFL selection is among the league leaders in every rushing efficiency metric.
- Yards per attempt: 5.0 (7 of 55 RBs with 60 attempts)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 3.15 (11 of 55)
- 10-plus yard rushing attempts: 16.3% (4 of 55)
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 24.1% (7 of 55)
If Robinson gets to 20-plus opportunities this weekend, he could have a monster outing in a matchup against a Jets defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (140) on the Week 13 slate.
Robinson is my RB8 and No. 13 overall player.
🥈 Tier 2 - Rachaad White
White averages 19.3 fantasy points per game over his last four outings, and his role is as robust as ever. The second-year back rarely leaves the field as a rusher or receiver, averaging a 70% snap share and 68% route participation since Week 9.
White hasn’t reached the heights of the elite passing-down backs that push toward a 20% target share, but he has been efficient with a 1.29 YPRR – a mark that has been RB1-worthy over the last three seasons.
The second-year RB hasn’t been efficient on the ground (3.6 yards per attempt), but the Buccaneers get a juicy matchup as 5.5-point favorites against the Panthers. Carolina has been steamrolled for 125 yards and 1.64 TDs per contest on the ground. White has a shot at his second-consecutive 100-yard rushing game and offers multiple TD upside.
White is a SMASH play as my RB9 and a top-15 flex play in Week 13.
ALL of the Week 13 Rankings you NEED
💭 Name a player you only remember because of fantasy football. Matthew has a few fun ones.
📈 Could these RBs be LEAGUE-WINNERS? Dwain breaks it down.
📸 Get this kid his credentials back. C’mon, NFL.
💰 A rookie WR poised to find paydirt. Best touchdown bets for TNF.
🏆 Everything you need to dominate Week 13. Your favorite fantasy analysts, the Fantasy OG, and an All-Pro WR have you covered.
🧰 A list of great RB stash options. Load up your bench.
🍝 Tommy DeVito mania is here. And it’s glorious.
📺 Is this a get-right spot for the Chargers? How to approach it and everything else you need to bet on Week 13.
🧮 Which teams have the best chance at a Top 2 pick in the 2024 draft? Going to be close.
👀 What teams have the easiest remaining schedules? Don’t tease us, Bijan…
🤠 Oh look, another chance to get Tony Pollard going. Everything you need to bet on Seahawks vs. Cowboys and the DFS showdown slate.
🐴 What to expect from Zack Moss’ workload? Straight from Shane Steichen’s mouth.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 13…
🌟 Brock Purdy (49ers) @ Eagles
- 49ers: -3
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 24.75
Since the Week 9 bye, the 49ers are 3-0 with 92 points scored, and Purdy has 838 yards and seven TDs passing to just one INT with a 75.3% completion rate. He’s on fire, and the 49ers are the No. 1 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings.
For the season, Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (9.8), composite EPA + CPOE (0.205), and QBR (75.6, per ESPN). I think the days of his realistic MVP candidacy are over -- but those are MVP-caliber efficiency numbers.
Framed differently: If Aaron Rodgers had been traded to the 49ers this offseason and done exactly what Purdy has this year, he’d be the easy MVP frontrunner.
For his career, Purdy as a favorite is 12-6 ATS (27.0% ROI, per Action Network), and the Eagles are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.5).
🌟 Derrick Henry (Titans) vs. Colts
- Titans: +1
- O/U: 43
- TT: 21
The Titans are live to win as short home underdogs, and -- despite his subpar season (82.4 scrimmage yards per game) -- Henry has still balled out this year in five home outings (539 yards, five TDs) and four victories (426 yards, four TDs).
If the Titans win at home, Henry has a good shot to go off -- and HC Mike Vrabel is 12-7 ATS (21.5% ROI) and 12-7 ML (61.3% ROI) as a dog at Nissan Stadium.
Henry is no longer the player he once was (125.7 scrimmage yards per game in 2019-22), but he has 12-plus opportunities in every game but one and could approach 20 touches in this spot.
The Colts are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (43.9%) and without three-time All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard, whom the team cut last week in an attempted salary dump.
🌟 Tank Dell (Texans) vs. Broncos
- Texans: -3.5
- O/U: 48
- TT: 25.75
Dell was a part-time player in Week 1 (48% snap rate), and he exited Week 5 early with a concussion that sidelined him for Week 6, but in his eight other games -- all with a snap rate of at least 60% -- he has 41-618-7 receiving on 67 targets and 9-55-0 rushing.
WR Noah Brown (knee) didn’t practice at all last week, so I doubt he will return this week, which should ensure that Dell maintains his playing time.
The Broncos are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.1%).
Keep an eye on Dell’s practice reports. He’s dealing with a new calf injury.
🌟 Diontae Johnson (Steelers) vs. Cardinals
- Steelers: -5.5
- O/U: 41
- TT: 23.25
Since returning from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for Weeks 3-6, Johnson has reclaimed his spot as the No. 1 WR in the Steelers offense with a 25% target rate, 28% target share, and 33% endzone target share to go along with his elite 93% route rate.
Johnson had a rough day at the office last week -- he wasn’t given credit for a 15-yard TD catch that was ruled incomplete on the field and not challenged -- but he still had eight targets in his first game this year without OC Matt Canada.
The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.154).
🌟 Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Bengals
- Jaguars: -8
- O/U: 37
- TT: 22.5
Engram has disappointed this year with … checks notes … zero TDs on 82 targets, 64 receptions, and 524 yards receiving.
That sucks, but he’s still No. 3 at the position in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. With his usage and yardage, the TDs will eventually materialize.
Why not against the Bengals? Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.2).