👀 A Rookie QB Worth Your Attention?
A passing yards prop with value...
Greetings and salutations!
The Fourth of July has come and gone — although you wouldn't know it based on the fireworks-happy shenanigans some small New Hampshire towns get up to in the summer.
Even so, Independence Day has passed, which means it's officially time for me to start getting serious about the coming NFL season. I've just recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a Fantasy Life+ subscription), and right now — right as I'm typing this very sentence — I'm perusing the season-long player futures markets.
Below are two rookie bets I like (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).
What is in today’s newsletter?
- Two rookie bets that Matthew Freedman is smashing for 2024.
- MLB Bets for the Tuesday slate from Matt LaMarca.
- Zach Edey has jumped from +2500 to +700 for NBA ROY…buying or selling?
Two Rookies to Target in the NFL Futures Market
Bo Nix: Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards
- Bet: +500 (DraftKings)
- Limit: +400
Despite six QBs being drafted in Round 1 (gross, and I'm not at all still bitter about that), three passers can be cursorily eliminated from consideration: J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix seem respectively likely to open the season behind the veteran trio of Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins.
So that leaves Nix and the two players selected at the top of the draft: Caleb Williams (+100) and Jayden Daniels (+250).
Using the Fantasy Life Odds Calculator, one can see that the implied probability of one of Williams, Daniels, and Nix finishing No. 1 is only 95.3%.
- Williams: 50%
- Daniels: 28.6%
- Nix: 16.7%
So I think there's some value in this market anyway, and I'm inclined to think it lies with Nix, who probably has the best playcaller of the group in HC Sean Payton.
Nix has something of a popgun arm — but so did Drew Brees, who led the league in passing seven times in Payton's offense.
Williams has the superior surrounding talent (WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze), and Daniels is the more dynamic player (2023 Heisman Trophy, 13.6 adjusted yards per attempt), but Nix might lead the class in pass attempts (the Broncos have a lowly win total of 5.5), and when it comes to rookie QBs no one really knows anything anyway.
Williams and Daniels should be favored ahead of Nix, but I think his odds to win this award are closer to 25% than the 16.7% implied by the current market.
Malik Nabers: Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards
- Bet: +600 (DraftKings)
- Limit: +400
Marvin Harrison is a +175 favorite in this market, and that strikes me as ridiculous.
Harrison should be favored: He was an easy top-10 pick, and he will face little target competition as a rookie.
But the exact same can be said for Nabers, who might have even less target competition, given that Harrison has to deal with emerging TE Trey McBride on the Cardinals, whereas TE Darren Waller left the Giants this offseason via retirement.
Nabers has a very real chance to match (if not exceed) Harrison in aerial opportunities this season.
And as talented as Harrison is, Nabers was just as impressive at a younger age in 2023.
- Harrison (21 years): 100.9 yards per game | Unanimous All-American
- Nabers (20 years): 120.7 yards per game | Unanimous All-American
The sharp Dwain McFarland, who manages our official Fantasy Life player prognostications, has Harrison and Nabers with the following projected receiving stat lines.
- Harrison: 133 targets | 86 receptions | 1,079 yards
- Nabers: 131 targets | 85 receptions | 1,017 yards
When both players are projected for more than 1,000 yards across a 17-game season, a difference of 62 yards is almost negligible. It's not a coin flip between Harrison and Nabers, but there's no reason Harrison should have a 36.4% implied probability to lead all rookies in receiving while Nabers has just 14.3% odds.
In reality, I think Harrison's odds should be around 30%; Nabers' odds, 25%.
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by Matt LaMarca
Tampa Bay Rays ML vs. New York Yankees (+105; BetMGM)
The Yankees have been in a major tailspin of late. After dropping two of three to the Red Sox over the weekend, they’ve now won just five of their past 20 games. They’ve fallen three games behind the Orioles in the AL East, and their gap over the third-place Red Sox is shrinking.
The Yankees will right the ship eventually, but I’m betting it’s after the All-Star break. The team figures to make some moves at the trade deadline that will help, but for the time being, their lineup isn’t particularly threatening. If you can avoid Aaron Judge and Juan Soto – easier said than done – no one else is really capable of hurting you.
I like the value with the Rays as small home underdogs on Tuesday. They’ll send Ryan Pepiot to the bump, who was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. Pepiot has all the makings of a stud pitcher, even if his production hasn’t been up to that level this season. Among pitchers with at least 75 innings this season, Pepiot ranks eighth in Stuff+.
On the other side, Carlos Rodon has been very hittable for the Yankees. His xERA sits at 4.49, while he ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, groundball rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. He’s not striking out as many batters as he did in his prime, and when they’re making contact, it tends to be high quality.
The Rays offense has also been at its best against left-handers this season, posting a 111 wRC+. There’s a lot to like in this matchup.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
⛳️ The PGA TOUR heads to Scotland. Geoff Ulrich has an early bet and your course preview.
👀 Favorite fades, draft strategies, and more. Freedman heads to the Fantasy Mansion to break it down for 2024.
📉 Thor Nystrom’s College Football Power Rankings for 2024 are live. Which team dropped 20 spots?
🤔 There’ve been doubts about his fit in the NBA, but Zach Edey just made a massive leap in ROY odds.
🇺🇸 Good luck stopping this team this summer. All smiles in Vegas.