Free Marvin Mims…OR ELSE…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:

• A new QB joins the Jets
• Fantasy Football Surprises: Zack Moss did what?!
• Injury updates across the league
• Buy, Sell, Hold: It’s time to trade away a Packers RB
• It’s 9/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

The New York Jets are melting down.

After their pyrrhic, overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, the Jets have been in a tailspin of epic proportions with two straight losses — the latter of which featured multiple instances of infighting on the sidelines.

In the case of the Chicago Bears, who are in a similar freefall, there are multiple places to point fingers. But in New York, the lion’s share of the blame is falling firmly on QB Zach Wilson (and a front office who failed to solidify the backup QB position this offseason).

And rightfully so.

Wilson has been downright atrocious through three weeks and currently ranks dead last in completion rate (52.4%).

Wilson playing poorly is hardly a surprise, though. Out of 50 qualified QBs since 2021, here’s how he ranks (h/t Dan Falkenheim):

• EPA/play — 50th (-0.14)
• CPOE — 50th (-8.01%)
• Success Rate — 50th (38.1%)
• Third Down Conversion Rate — 49th (28.4%)
• Win Probability Added/Game — 48th (-9.0%)
• INT Rate — 46th (3.1%)
• TD Rate — 45th (2.4%)

Outside of Wilson’s mom, Wilson’s mom’s friends, and Robert Saleh, (who insists that Wilson is the Jets’ “unquestioned quarterback”) there’s not a single person on Earth who still believes that Wilson gives the Jets a puncher’s chance at being competitive.

Joe Namath has seen enough. Fireman Ed has seen enough. And if you don’t mind me speaking on behalf of anyone who drafted Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall, we’ve seen enough.

But could things be turning around?

🤔 Trevor Siemian to the rescue?

Well, it’s not a bombshell trade for Kirk Cousins, or even Jacoby Brissett. It’s not even coaxing Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers out of retirement. But it’s at least something:

It really speaks to how spectacularly bad Wilson is that the 31-year-old Trevor Siemian, who wasn’t even on an NFL team for the past month, could actually be considered an improvement over the 2021 No. 2 overall pick.

The Jets will throw Wilson to the wolves on primetime this Sunday night vs. the defending champs and undoubtedly continue to work the phone lines for another QB with a pulse, but they need to shake things up soon. If not, they risk losing the locker room, the fanbase, and all of fantasy nation.

If you are sitting on Wilson and Hall, you need to hold and pray (mainly pray). You simply won’t get enough value in return for them in a trade to warrant moving them right now.

Everyone else in this offense can be dropped, though.

Ok, now back to praying…

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The 2023 NFL season is 16.6% done, meaning there’s still a LOT more football to be played, but we also certainly have a better idea of what’s going on relative to a few short weeks ago. Today, Ian Hartitz shares which players are surprising him the most…

Small sample sizes be damned: Fantasy points leaderboards are looking WONKY after three weeks of action, leading us to question whether or not the production is smoke and mirrors, or a sign of more good things to come.

What follows is a breakdown of the most surprisingly good fantasy assets this season in terms of the discrepancy between fantasy points and preseason ADP.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

🐬 Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert

• Preseason ADP: RB48
• Current rank: RB1

There’s a new king atop the NFL RB leaderboard in yards per carry during the Super Bowl era (min. 500 career carries):

• Mostert (5.42)
• Bo Jackson (5.4)
• Jamaal Charles (5.38)
• Nick Chubb (5.26)
• Gus Edwards (5.15)

Getting to run inside of Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel’s ever-well-designed run schemes has certainly helped matters, but the veteran also deserves credit for still being among the league’s fastest players at the ripe age of 31.

Mostert has already racked up 319 total yards and seven TDs this season; pretty much nothing other than the injury bug looks capable of slowing down this Dolphins offense at the moment knocks on wood.

Continue to fire up the speedy veteran as a legit top-12 option at the position, especially as long as Jeff Wilson (hand/midsection, IR) remains completely out of the picture.

🐴 Colts RB Zack Moss

• Preseason ADP: N/A
• Current rank: RB13

Moss didn’t even play in Week 1, yet unironically finds himself in the Week 4 RB1 conversation after back-to-back sterling RB10 and RB5 performances. Overall, Moss has racked up 252 total yards with a pair of scores – and here’s the wild part: Moss has objectively balled the hell out along the way.

Undoubtedly not helping teammate Jonathan Taylor’s (ankle, IR) cause for a new contract, Moss is tied with none other than Christian McCaffrey for the league-high mark in forced missed tackles on the ground with 16 … AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED TWO GAMES.

Moss’ early-season success is particularly impressive when considering he hasn’t even had a chance to benefit from Anthony Richardson’s (concussion) dual-threat impact when it comes to widening rushing lanes in the read option game. Even then: Credit to this offensive line for averaging a robust 2.3 yards before contact per rush – the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Obviously, Moss’ status as a borderline RB1 in Week 4 won’t continue IF Taylor returns in Week 5 with no funny business, but as you probably noticed: That’s a big if.

Even if JT returns to his usual full-time role sooner rather than later, Moss would still carry huge season-long handcuff upside on top of the potential to maybe even earn some semblance of standalone value should the 25-year-old talent continue to play so well.

MORE surprisingly awesome early-season fantasy performers

📺 EVERYTHING you need to know from Week 3. And how to react moving forward.

🔥 I think Chiefs Kingdom found their secret weapon. Business is boomin’.

🏆️ The 30-30 Club. The pass catchers who dominate in all areas.

🌶️ Oh no, Josh Allen. Whatcha doin?

📈 Always stay one step ahead. Four WRs on the cusp of breaking out.

🎙️ Jared Goff mic’d up…while trying to jump into the crowd.

🚑️ Injury updates across the league. Barkley is still listed day-to-day.

😥 We want RBs who get high-value touches. Someone save Breece Hall.

🐬 Tua and Tyreek are in lockstep. That’s camaraderie.

Week 3 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…

🐅 In a world full of Broncos and Bears, be a Bengal.

I bet some of you were considering trading away Ja’Marr Chase these last few weeks in a moment of weakness, weren’t you? But this week, the Bengals taught us patience.

Don’t sabotage what is still salvageable! 

We are only ⅙ of the way through the season. So if you’re currently sitting 0-3, let the Bengals be a reminder that you sometimes have to be patient in fantasy football. And let the Bears and Broncos be a reminder that it really, truly, could always get worse.

Now let’s get into some good old fashioned non-panicky buyin’, sellin’, and holdin’ baby!

🛒BUY

📈 Tank Dell, WR - Texans

Has his yardage doubled every single week? Yes. Has he scored TDs in two out of three games? Yes. Does his name invoke fear in the hearts of your adversaries? It should.

It’s still early enough to jump on the Tank Dell Express, but the clock is ticking on his affordable Buy Now window. Your leaguemates might still have a sour taste in their mouth when they hear “Houston Texans” and that alone may make this deal affordable.

Stop waiting for guys like Jahan Dotson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a thing when Tank Dell is right here in front of you.

Takeaway: Sometimes Tank’ing can be a good thing.

🛒 SELL

📉 AJ Dillon, RB - Packers

If you know me at all, you know this one hurts.

I’ve loved Dillon for a while now. But the numbers don’t tell a pretty story.

Many (read: me) thought Dillon would flourish as the lead back in Green Bay while Aaron Jones was out with a hamstring injury, but that never came to fruition.

While Dillon will always have a place in my heart, I don’t have a place for him on my roster anymore.

Takeaway: It’s not you. It’s me. <3

🛒 HOLD

👌 Mike Evans, WR - Buccaneers

File this one under “players I somehow drafted really late”. Evans has quietly scored a TD in every game this year and has 297 yards on 17 catches.

I don’t think you can trade for him at a reasonable price, but if you’ve already got Evans on your roster, hold on tight. And be thankful that everyone overanalyzed his age this offseason and allowed him to fall in ADP.

But beware: Evans does have his big, annual “will-he won’t-he get ejected” match-up in Week 4.

Takeaway: This year’s ADP darling.

More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 4

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