✈️ A SURPRISE RB Trade (Now What?!)
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we break down an RB trade, rankings and Tiers for Week 3, Freedman's Favorites, and more!
Donna Kelce could be Taylor Swift’s mother-in-law…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- An RB trade!
- Rankings & Tiers: Big Mike’s time to shine
- TNF injury updates on Barkley & Aiyuk
- Freedman’s Favorites: 5 gold-star plays
- It’s 9/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Yesterday brought clarity to two ongoing RB sagas:
What will the Rams do with Cam Akers?
Is Kareem Hunt ever going to sign with a team?
✈️ Hunt rejoins the Browns
The first shoe to drop was Hunt returning to his former team, the Cleveland Browns, to solidify their RB depth chart after losing Nick Chubb for the year.
I know people have fond memories of Hunt being a fantasy contributor back in Kansas City, but those days are long gone. His rushing efficiency fell off a cliff last year, and every team in the league passed him over multiple times this offseason.
Jerome Ford is still the back to roster here, and I made a case for Pierre Strong as a stash yesterday as well.
If you are trying to figure out how to value Hunt, let me put it this way for you;
Hunt is Melvin Gordon, who is Kenyan Drake, who is <insert below replacement-level, practice-squad caliber RB here who was added to a 53-man roster for depth and insurance purposes>.
We can move along…
✈️ The Rams ship Akers to Minny
Now the far more fantasy-relevant transaction from yesterday was the Rams shipping ongoing pariah, Cam Akers, to the Vikings in exchange for a couple of water bottles and a pair of cleats (aka a late-round pick swap in 2026).
The most interesting part of this trade is what it tells us about how the Vikings currently feel about Alexander Mattison, although I’m not sure two dust balls make a usable RB:
Regardless, this move downgrades the fantasy relevance of both Mattison and Ty Chandler.
I would not be starting (or dropping) any of these players until we get a chance to see how Minnesota plans to deploy these backs. This is still an offense that is expected to score a ton of points this year, so we can’t fully write off this backfield.
The Vikings gave up so little in this trade (I’m still laughing that the pick swap isn’t until 2026) that there are no guarantees that Akers will earn a significant role.
And at the same time, it’s also well within the range of outcomes that he eventually forces a 50-50 timeshare with Mattison.
Stay tuned…
😡 Bad News Bears
There’s trouble brewing in Chicago.
The Bears have:
- started the season 0-2
- have one of the worst defenses in the league & no defensive coordinator
- lost their left tackle Braxton Jones for at least four games
Aaaaand now their franchise QB is pointing fingers at press conferences after two disappointing games where he finished as the QB12 and QB21:
He certainly stuck to the script in the first part of the response but then “bit the pin off of the grenade and rolled it into the building” with an explicit dig at the coaching.
It’s hard to disagree with anything he’s saying, though. The whole situation is especially frustrating considering that we suffered through these exact issues to start the season last year, as Dwain noted in his Utilization Report this week:
In 2022, it took the Bears a while to integrate the electric runner into the game plan, but once they did in Week 7, he ripped off seven consecutive top-seven finishes. If your local Fields manager is panicking, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a trade.
Dwain McFarland
There are some small usage hints that this could change soon, however. Fields did see his designed rush attempts jump from 10% to 20% in Week 2, which is how his fantasy bread got buttered in 2022:
For reference, check his fantasy finishes last year (far right column) when his designed rush attempts hovered around the 25% range:
The problem, though, is that this is probably not the week that things get back on track.
Not only do we have a QB publicly bickering with his coaching staff, but the Bears head to Arrowhead this weekend as giant (12.5-point) underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champs:
🤔 So what’s the move for fantasy?
Things are likely to bottom out for the Bears this weekend, but the schedule gets much easier after that:
- vs. Denver
- @ Washington
- vs. Minnesota
- vs. Las Vegas
I’d look to buy low on Fields, D.J. Moore, and Roschon Johnson after this week.
Better fantasy days are ahead, even if the organization appears to be in a dysfunctional tailspin.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 3 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on some must-start players. Find all of our positional rankings here.
👑 Quarterback
🥉 Tier 3 – Deshaun Watson
Watson is currently the QB15, which is less than we hoped for drafting him as an upside option that could provide arbitrage value on the top-tier QBs. What is worse, it feels like he is hanging on by a thread to even remain in the QB1 conversation.
Watson looks much more like the same version we watched at the end of last season than the superstar we knew in Houston. His 55% completion rate ranks 31st – only above Zach Wilson – and he ranks third-worst in completion percentage above expectation per Next Gen Stats. Yeah, the Dawg Pound is howling… WOOF.
He just hasn’t been able to get in sync with his WRs. Only 50% of Elijah Moore’s eight targets were catchable on Monday Night. Donovan Peoples-Jones’ average is 42% for the season. Not good.
Between his designed rush attempts (7%) and scrambles (9%), Watson has 11 totes for 67 yards and one TD, which has been just enough to keep him from bombing in fantasy land.
However, he will never be a Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. His rushing profile is a nice bonus, but he must step up in the passing attack for the Browns’ signal caller to find his way back to fantasy prominence.
There is no better time than the present.
The Titans allow the fifth most passing yards per game at 282 and rank 15th in passing TDs allowed per game at 1.5. Of course, this isn’t a new development. The Titans were among the worst secondaries in 2022, and the trend continues in 2023.
I am going back to the well one more time with Watson as a top-12 option, ranking him as my QB11 in Week 3.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 3 – Mike Williams
Williams was well ahead of consensus in my rankings last weekend. While he didn’t smash, he delivered a healthy 17 fantasy points. More importantly, he led the team in targets (32%) and air yards (35%).
I am not disputing Keenan Allen’s grasp on the WR1 role in the Chargers offense – he is the superior target earner. However, Williams flashed high target share potential early in each of the last two seasons before battling through injuries, and Kellen Moore still hasn’t integrated Quentin Johnston into the offense.
As long as Josh Palmer remains the primary WR3, Allen and Williams have a path to both achieving 25%-plus target shares at the same time.
This weekend, Williams is in another juicy spot against the Vikings in a matchup with a 54-point game total. We have two teams with quality QBs surrounded by high-end weaponry, which is the recipe for a fantasy bonanza. Look for the two 0-2 teams to pull out all the stops in an effort to get their season back on track.
Williams is a SMASH PLAY as a mid-range WR2 with high-end WR1 upside in a potential barn burner.
Positional Rankings for Week 3
📰 TNF status updates. Saquon Barkley won’t play, and Brandon Aiyuk is a game-time decision.
🛒 The Ravens add an RB. That’s a familiar name.
👀 Time to move one of the best young WRs in the game? It’s a seller’s market.
✍️ Barkley’s absence opens up value on TNF. How viable is Matt Breida on the showdown DFS slate?
🛋️ Gronk goes through a couch a month? And he’s a lightweight.
🎱 Will Anthony Richardson play this week? It’s very much up in the air.
🚑️ How about Joe Burrow? He’s apparently feeling better.
📈 The Saints get an RB back. He’ll get touches vs. the Packers.
🐬 The fastest team in the league. And it isn’t close.
😆 Bill Belichick tried to say something nice about Zach Wilson. I guess that’s true.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites,”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 3…
🌟 QB - Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Falcons
Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25
Goff is a nonentity as a runner, but since last season, he has compensated for it as a passer with efficiency (8.1 AY/A) and volume (34.6 attempts per game).
While I view Goff as a talent-limited player, OC Ben Johnson does an excellent job maximizing his potential through intelligent play design and sequencing: Last year, Goff had a league-high 1,445 yards passing on play action.
In 2022, the Falcons were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (23.5%, per FTN).
Jared Goff through two weeks:
🔹 576 passing yards (5th)
🔹 71.4 completion % (t-6th)
🔹 75.3 QBR (5th)
🔹 28 first downs passing (t-5th)
🔹 4 TDs#Lions#OnePride
🌟 RB - Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Texans
Jaguars: -9.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.75
Etienne got all but two of the backfield opportunities in Week 2, and he could see an expanded workload as a home favorite against the Texans, who were No. 1 last year in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.9 FPPG).
In two games against the Texans last year, Etienne accumulated 254 yards and a TD on 19 carries and eight targets, and for the season, he piled up 1,441 scrimmage yards and ranked No. 3 in rushing yards over expected (+1.08, per Next Gen Stats).
🌟 WR - Keenan Allen (Chargers) at Vikings
Chargers: Pick’Em
O/U: 54
TT: 27
Allen entered the season with 9.8 targets per game over the past three years, and then in Weeks 1-2, he was his typical self with 14-187-2 receiving on 19 targets, adding 2-6-0 rushing.
With RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) uncertain to play, the Chargers might have more of a pass-leaning game plan, and some of Ekeler’s short targets could be reallocated to the slot-heavy Allen.
The Vikings were No. 30 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (19.6%), and they’re playing backup FS Josh Metellus at nickel out of necessity. Metellus has just five starts and 247 coverage snaps in the NFL. Best of luck to him.
LOL....good luck covering Keenan Allen this year DBs...
🌟 WR - Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Packers
Saints: +2
O/U: 43
TT: 20.5
Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage.
He’s unpolished as a receiver and bound to regress, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Last year, he was No. 2 with a 138.4 QB rating when targeted, and in Weeks 1-2, he broke loose with 9-152-1 receiving on 10 targets and added 2-11-0 rushing.
He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.
Rashid Shaheed from Week 8-18 last season: 2.49 yards per route run, 9th-best among all qualifying WRs.
Rashid Shaheed so far this season: 2.92 YPRR, 9th-best among all qualifying WRs.
Hard to do this and be a fluke. Dude can play.
🌟 TE- Sam LaPorta (Lions) vs. Falcons
Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25
LaPorta dominated at Iowa as the No. 1 receiver (111-1,327-4 receiving in 2021-22), got second-round draft capital in April, and then had 10-102-0 receiving on 11 targets in Weeks 1-2.
The Falcons last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.1 FPPG).
Through Week 2, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is stepping up in a big way 📝
🏈 77% route participation
🏈 17% target share
🏈 92% catchable targets
🏈 11% air yardsCourtesy of the #UtilizationReport@MBFantasyLife
fantasylife.com/nfl/utilizatio…
More of Freedman’s Favorites for Week 3