Underdogs who win don’t stay underdogs for long…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Winning Underdogs: Texans look for REAL!
• Adjusted Scores: Did the Ravens lose? Or Browns win?
• Early Lines: Once again, Chiefs under a field goal…
• Kyler Murray Returns: He’s still a magician.
• MNF: Are the Bills still… the Bills?
• It’s 11/13: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

Week 10 was a slate ruled by favorites. Of the 12 Sunday games played before primetime, underdogs won four.

Let’s take a look at each of these victorious canines (betting data via Action Network).

🐕 Browns (6-3)

• Point Differential: +44
• ATS Record: 6-3 (27.3% ROI)

The Browns have the No. 1 defense in the league by expected points added and success rate (per RBs Don’t Matter). On the defensive line and in the secondary, the Browns have difference-making producers.

HC Kevin Stefanski — 2020 Coach of the Year — has navigated significant injuries to QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (knee, IR), RT Jack Conklin (knee, IR), and LT Jedrick Wills (knee, IR).

And K Dustin Hopkins has a league-high 24 field goals and is 7-of-7 converting from 50-plus yards. In Week 10, he hit a game-ending 40-yarder — his fourth FG of the day — to give the Browns a 33-31 road victory as +6 underdogs against the division-rival Ravens.

If Watson can improve as the season progresses, the Browns will be a dangerous team regardless of opponent. They also have a relatively friendly remaining schedule with games upcoming against the Steelers, Broncos, Rams, Bears, and Jets.

The Browns look like a playoff team. From the preseason, I have a +4000 ticket on them to win the Super Bowl in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

🤠 Texans (5-4)

• Point Differential: +25
• ATS Record: 5-4 (5.4% ROI)

In last week’s Monday Betting Life Newsletter, I highlighted the Texans as a team that aggressively moved up my power ratings in the first half of the season, and they will get another bump with their 30-27 road win as +5.5 underdogs against the Bengals.

With only nine games played, they’ve easily surpassed their 3-13 and 3-14 records of the previous two years.

QB C.J. Stroud — in the midst of one of the greatest first-year passing performances in league history — is all but guaranteed to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (-1000, DraftKings).

And rookie HC DeMeco Ryans has the Texans just one game behind the Jaguars (6-3), whom they beat 37-13 on the road in Week 3. The Texans have a real chance to win the AFC South, and they’re currently positioned to make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed — directly ahead of the Bengals and Bills, over whom they have a tiebreaker.

I have a ticket on Ryans from the preseason to win Coach of the Year at +2500, and I don’t hate that position now.

🚀 Vikings (6-4)

• Point Differential: +24
• ATS Record: 6-4 (14.0% ROI)

The Vikings have had terrible luck this year — and that’s not even taking into account injuries — but even so, they have now won five games in a row after impressively handling the Saints as +3 home underdogs.

Under new DC Brian Flores, the defense has exhibited notable improvement (No. 12 in SR this year, No. 25 last year), and HC Kevin O’Connell has deftly handled the loss of QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR) and WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR).

Although last year’s 13-4 campaign was abetted by good fortune, it certainly seems now not to have been a fluke. The Vikings can compete.

They’re currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff standings.

🐦 Cardinals (2-8)

• Point Differential: -87
• ATS Record: 5-5 (-4.2% ROI)

In QB Kyler Murray’s return from last year’s season-ending knee injury, the Cardinals took care of business as +2 home underdogs against the Falcons.

On the one hand, it was great to see them win given the struggles they’ve had this year.

On the other hand, the Falcons also lost in Week 9 to former Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs, who had just joined the Vikings and was coming off the bench as a backup with no knowledge of the playbook.

It’s not as if the Cardinals defeated the toughest of opponents in Week 10.

But their win with Murray was encouraging, and they have a chance to close the season as a surging team that sets itself up well for next year.

Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here is one excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 10.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).

📊 Adjusted Scores Table

• “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
• “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
• “H & A”: Home or away team

📊 Ravens vs. Browns

• Final Score: 31-33
• Adjusted Score: 21-22

A wild turnaround in Baltimore gives the Browns the victory, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. With 11:12 left in the fourth quarter, the Browns facing 2nd & 15 from their own 20-yard-line, trailing by 14 points (31-17), their estimated win probability was less than 4%. Yet overall the Ravens weren’t fundamentally better than the Browns, with roughly equal success rates, and the highest variance play of the game going in their favor (5.2 EPA, muffed punt recovery at the Browns 12).

Then the Browns marched the rest of the way down the field for a score, returned a Lamar Jackson interception for another touchdown on the second play of the Ravens’ next drive, missed the extra point, stopped the Ravens again in only 3:13 of game time, then drove for the game-winning field goal.

The Browns’ comeback was part Ravens offensive meltdown, part defensive pressure, and partially the Browns offense showing the ability to get consecutive scores when needed, something that hasn’t been a feature in Cleveland for a long while.

The score might imply that the respective top defenses in the NFL were bad in this one, but both offenses were held down on pass plays. Jerome Ford's runs were the biggest value generators for the Browns, adding 3.4 expected points (17 carries for 107 yards).

In the Ravens’ final four drives, they averaged 2.6 yards per play, including a pick-six that cost them 30% win probability and 7.7 expected points. The Browns offense wasn’t great either, but Deshaun Watson was able to shake off his own costly mistake (pick-6 on his first pass, 7.8 expected points lost) to end up with +2.5 EPA on the day.

Neither quarterback played well, mostly due to back-breaking mistakes. I don’t know if Watson was the better quarterback, but the numbers also show a lack of accuracy for Jackson. Yet Jackson’s pick-6 was more of the unlucky variety, a tipped pass that fell perfectly for the Browns.

The Browns are now only a half-game behind the Ravens in the standings and have split their head-to-heads.

More from Unexpected Points

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🏀 Knicks +9.5 (-115, BetMGM)

The Celtics have been as good as advertised this season, leading the league with a +13.6 Net Rating. But the Knicks have been pretty good in their own right. They’re fifth in Net Rating, so they’ve been better than their 5-4 record suggests.

The Knicks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but only one player saw more than 27 minutes in Sunday’s blowout win over the Hornets. Fatigue shouldn’t be a huge issue, so I think the +9.5 points is ultimately a smidge too high.

Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.

🐶 Cleveland Browns (-4.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Current Line: Browns -4.0 (-110; Caesars)
• Lookahead Line: Browns -3.5
• Target Range: Browns -4.0 or better

I’m starting with this game because I think it’s one you need to lock in early. The Browns are legit contenders. They have the best defense in football, and their offense is starting to flourish as well. It may not always look pretty, but the Browns have now scored at least 27 points in three of their past four games.

The team engineered one of the most impressive wins of the season Sunday vs. the Ravens. Baltimore entered the week as the No. 1 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings by a wide margin. They were listed as 8.74 points better than the average team on a neutral field, while the No. 2 team (49ers) was just +6.64. The fact that the Browns were able to upset them in Baltimore as underdogs of nearly a full touchdown is eye-opening.

Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to grind out ugly wins. They’re now 6-3 on the season, but their metrics are unsustainable. They’ve been outscored by 26 points this season, so their expected record puts them well below their actual mark.

The Steelers were also outgained once again on Sunday, this time by a mediocre Packers squad. Jordan Love and company racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense, but they were done in by two turnovers and a 20% touchdown rate in the red zone.

The Steelers can’t survive on Mike Tomlin’s voodoo magic forever, and this seems like the perfect time to sell high on them. The Browns can do everything the Steelers can do defensively but better, and they’re better on offense, too.

I expect this line to close at 4.5 or higher – it’s already up to 4.5 at FanDuel – so I’m locking in Browns -4.0 now.

🏹 Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Current Line: Chiefs -2.5 (-110; FanDuel)
• Lookahead Line: Chiefs -3.0
• Target Range: Chiefs -3.0 or better

Sports betting doesn’t always have to be complicated. One of my general rules is that if you can bet on Patrick Mahomes to win a football game – essentially under a -3.0 spread – you do it.

Mahomes has played in 20 games (including the postseason) as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. He’s gone 15-4-1 ATS in those contests, good for an absurd +50.2% ROI.

Additionally, Andy Reid is known for being an offensive genius, so, unsurprisingly, he thrives with extra time to prepare. He’s 12-8 in his last 20 regular season games following a bye week, and he’ll have even more time than usual with this game being played on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs beat the Eagles by a field goal last year, and they didn’t even have the benefit of home field for that contest. This year’s version of the Eagles isn’t nearly as good on defense – they were 20th in yards per game entering Week 10 – so I’m not overthinking this one.

More Lines to LOCK IN EARLY!

🪦 UndertakerGIF: Once left for dead, this QB made a statement in Week 10 that it may be too early to coffin his career.

🐋 ”This is how I win”: A same-game parlay wager that may have delayed hotel expansion plans in Florida.

🫠 A moral victory? The Jags got bulldozed, but they did manage to end one important streak for bettors.

🤔 Great Timing? Depends on who you ask… This team needs to carefully consider their QB situation heading into the bye.

🪄 He’s baaaack. Kyler Murray picking up right where he left off.

👨‍🚀 Josh Dobbs did it again. Who would’ve thought the Passtronaut is also a Creed guy?

💰 Looking for more Monday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

🔥 +25.77u in the last 30 days and guess what? It’s all free.

You can access everything you need for Bills vs. Broncos in our Game Hub, including projection guidance, bets, and more. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? We’ve got you covered.

Monday Night Football features the Broncos at Bills, and Geoff Ulrich is here to highlight some of his favorite bets for the game…

While they were historically bad on defense to start the year, Denver has allowed just 4.1 yards per rush over their last three games and 6.3 yards per pass attempt (2-1 in the win column over that stretch). 

Buffalo has had their issues defensively since losing a couple of their starters, but they are still second in offensive DVOA and have one of the league's most explosive QB/WR duos in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. However, their offensive prowess hasn’t led to many wins of late.

Is this the spot Buffalo breaks out, or do the Broncos make a stand and legitimize themselves as a potential playoff candidate?

🤝 Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Broncos +7.0 (-110, BetMGM)
• Total: 47.5
• Moneylines: Broncos +260 / Bills -310

💰 Best Bet: Broncos +7.0 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play To: Broncos +6.5 (+100)

The injury report aside, it hasn’t been a good stretch for Buffalo. The Bills scoring in 2023 has been concentrated over a few games, and they’ve been held to 20 points or fewer in three of their last five.

I also love this matchup for Denver, who has turned into one of the best-rushing offenses in the league (second in yards per rush attempt — 4.8). 

From a trends perspective, Sean Payton remains a solid coach to back from a historical perspective and is 9-5 ATS for his career as an underdog on extended rest (per The Action Network). Denver at +6.5 or better has my attention. 

💰 Top Prop: Javonte Williams Over 13.5 Carries (-120, BetMGM)

• Play To: Over 14.5 (+100)
• Projection: 13.8

Williams comes into this game with 15 and 27 carries in his last two starts. His rushing attempt share has gone from 50% to 63% to 82% over the last three games, and his 66% snap count was a season-high in the Broncos' last contest. 

Williams is on the verge of reaching bell-cow status, yet his props remain similar to his early season marks, making them a great over target for me once again.

💰 Same-Game Parlay (+950; BetMGM)

• Broncos +7.5
• Josh Allen 275+ passing yards
• Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards
• Javonte Williams 50+ rushing yards
• Javonte Williams anytime TD 

These teams are exactly what they appear to be, and I expect them both to play to their strengths. 

Williams has zero rushing TDs this season, but I expect that to change this week. He took 11 of a possible 12 RB touches in the red zone in the Broncos' last game, and the Bills have allowed six rushing TDs to RBs over their previous six games. 

Kincaid’s receiving props have moved up significantly, but Denver has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing TEs. If we like Allen to go for a big week, including Kincaid’s over is an easy way to get a little boost and put a bow on our thesis for the Bills offense.

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