📰 Don't Believe Everything You Read

The Giants have 19 slot WRs...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

2 tricky pieces of Ravens news to decipher
OverReaction Monday: Records meant to be broken?
Updates on Dalvin Cook
ADP Discrepancies: Late-Round WRs to Target
It's 7/24. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Training camp news is flying fast and furious right now and the fantasy community is already FREAKING OUT about some of the reports.

It’s important to really dig into some of these headlines before panicking, because there is more than meets the eye.

The Ravens are the perfect example of a team with lots of news bouncing around from camp and I believe the majority of people are misreading what’s actually going on.

Let’s dig in with two examples…

📰 The Headline: J.K. Dobbins to PUP

💡 The Reality: Dobbins wants a new contract

When the Ravens placed Dobbins on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list to start training camp on Friday and subsequently signed Melvin Gordon to a one-year deal, there was panic in the streets.

On the surface, this does seem worrisome, and the quote from the article includes this particularly concerning quote:

Dobbins did not participate in minicamp as he continues to try to get back to 100% physically with his surgically repaired knee.

But it’s been over 23 months since he suffered the injury, and multiple doctors are skeptical that he hasn’t fully recovered by now.

Reading between the lines, it’s far more likely that this is about a new contract. Dobbins is on the record as being frustrated with his contract situation and sat out of minicamp to express this.

The Ravens signing Gordon isn’t because they are worried Dobbins won’t be ready to play, it’s insurance if Dobbins truly commits to a holdout:

Like all of these disgruntled RBs we’ve discussed, Dobbins has basically zero leverage, especially when the team can pull levers like this.

Ultimately, this should not impact anything ADP-wise. Dobbins might drag his feet back to camp, but he’s going to show up and play. Enjoy the discount for now while the headline-skimmers pass on him in drafts.

📰 The Headline: Zay Flowers is the best WR at Camp

💡 The Reality: The other WRs weren’t there

This clip circulated on Fantasy Twitter the other day, and it got everyone all hot and heavy about Flowers.

I’m excited about Flowers too—he’s one of the last remaining WRs with legitimate upside before the WR ADP cliff and a guy I selected on my high stakes Underdog best ball draft—but let’s apply some context here:

Bateman, who hadn’t been at camp previously, reported for the first time yesterday and will immediately challenge Flowers for the top WR on the field.

The point of this exercise isn’t to shake your faith in news reporting, but rather to encourage you to think critically about whether these reports should actually change how a player is valued in drafts.

Most of the time it shouldn’t and drafters are simply double counting or misinterpreting what’s actually going on.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall questions whether records are meant to be broken...

Every NFL season, players throughout the league set their sights on records and awards they want to conquer, and we look through the records that actually have a shot at being broken.

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson passed Randy Moss for the Minnesota Vikings' single-season receiving record in 2022, and, of course, who could forget the many Tom Brady records — seriously, who breaks their own records?! So, who could make history during this upcoming season…

🏆️ Calvin Johnson’s Receiving Yards Record

OF COURSE, we have to start with this one. Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 receiving yards was set in 2012 and is still standing. Rams receiver Cooper Kupp made a serious run at the record in 2021, falling just 18 yards short. Jefferson was the next closest receiver last season, tallying 1,809 receiving yards.

We all know the extra regular season game helps, but will this record be broken this year?

Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill believes he can do it.

On the It Needed To Be Said podcast, Hill said he can reach 2,000 receiving yards in a single season (and win a Super Bowl, but let’s save that for another time). The reality is, for Hill to get close to Johnson’s record a lot of things will have to fall in his favor.

He set career highs in targets, receptions and yards in 2022 after catching passes from three different quarterbacks.

In order for Hill to hit this mark, he will need to play in all 17 games and hope that his starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy all season. We all know just how damn good Hill is, so it could happen?!

🏆️ Peyton Manning’s Passing Yards Record

Now this one could be vulnerable. Peyton Manning set the 2013 season on fire with 5,477 passing yards and it hasn’t been touched since. Patrick Mahomes passed for 5,250 yards in 2022 and Brady had 5,316 in 2021.

Mahomes is of course a prime candidate to make history here, and he leads the betting markets for the quarterback to have the most regular season total passing yards. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow also have a pretty realistic shot of nabbing the record too with their high-flying passing attacks.

It’s not necessarily Manning-level, but Bears quarterback Justin Fields has his sights set on becoming the first Bears QB to hit the 4,000-yard passing mark this year. All in all, records are meant to be broken! Let’s just get ready for the show.

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Looking for a bet for today’s MLB slate? Matt McCuen has you covered.

Matt is betting: Cincinnati Reds ML (-105)

Taking the mound for the Reds tonight, Graham Ashcraft has pitched better on the road this season, holding a road ERA of 4.42 compared to a home ERA of 6.71.

Ashcraft also enters play in his best form this season, allowing just four earned runs in the month of July in eighteen innings.

On the other side of this game, Colin Rea has struggled against this current Reds lineup, as they hold a lifetime average of .333 vs. Rea in 42 at-bats. Rea has also struggled to pitch at home in Milwaukee this season, with a home ERA of 5.31.

Given the glaring pitching mismatch, the numbers point to the Reds tonight on the moneyline at -105.

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🙏 Great news for the Raiders. Davante Adams ADP on the rise now?

🤯 The biggest winner from the Chiefs’ first training camp might surprise you. Keep tabs on him.

🚑️ Amari Cooper is dinged up. Sounds minor, but still not ideal.

🤝 Rodgers to Wilson is going to be so much fun. Here’s a preview.

💸 The Chiefs are dealing with a big holdout situation. $50,000 for each missed day.

🤕 The Bills lose a RB. Tough break for Buffalo.

⚖️ Dalvin Cook won’t be suspended in 2023. Drew has the details.

✈️ Speaking of Dalvin…there are still three front-runners looking for his services.

📺 Mock Draft szn is here. Ian & Chris go back-to-back-to-back, baby.

There’s a lot of volatility in projections, which means we should often be playing offenses through the cheaper piece. Today Ian breaks down WR pairings with interesting ADP discrepancies…

NFL depth charts never stop evolving. From free agency to trades, to players simply getting better or worse: There’s always something there that warrants adjusting the ole fantasy ranks.

Of course, the ever-changing average draft position (ADP) isn’t always as directionally correct as it should be – especially when discerning the difference between complementary options in a potentially muddled passing game.

What follows are three instances between No. 2 and No. 3 WRs in which I believe the ADP difference is too damn wide, considering the potential for both parties to see similar target shares.

I’m not saying the cheaper WR will definitively out-score the more expensive party OR that you shouldn’t necessarily draft either party, rather that the current discrepancy in overall draft position for these four situations should be tighter.

🐴 Denver Broncos

Expensive: Courtland Sutton (WR48, pick 96.7 ADP)
Cheap: Tim Patrick (WR73, 167.5)

Sutton’s 72-1,112-6 receiving line back in 2019 was undoubtedly a good time, but back-to-back disappointing campaigns in the form of 58-776-2 and 64-829-2 receiving lines have left a lot to be desired.

This fact has not been lost on Sean Payton, although offseason trade rumors ultimately went nowhere. The reigning WR42 in PPR points per game, Sutton’s contested-catch-phenom archetype looks fantastic when things are going well, but the cliff can come quickly and harshly in fantasy land (see Dez Bryant, Kenny Golladay).

And then there’s Patrick, who is already sitting courtside with Russ and Payton. The veteran WR is expected to slide back into his starting role in three-WR sets after missing all of 2022 with a torn ACL; don’t forget the man was the team’s most-productive WR in 2020 (51-742-6) and 2021 (53-734-5) alike.

Overall, Jerry Jeudy (10.9 PPR points per game) has just barely out-scored Patrick (10.3) over the past three seasons, while Sutton (9.7) has struggled to keep pace since that aforementioned 2019 campaign.

While it’s not a guarantee Patrick outperforms Sutton in 2023: Their current discrepancy in ADP doesn’t reflect the reality that both WRs are making eight figures per year and each figure has a home inside three-WR sets. I’ve been happy to take the 70-pick discount on Patrick, who isn’t being priced next to legit upside RB3 options like Sutton currently is.

🐶 Cleveland Browns

Expensive: Elijah Moore (WR44, pick 87.1)
Cheap: Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR71, 160.4)

Let’s break down the highs from both parties:

Moore: Worked as the overall WR3 from Weeks 7-13 behind only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. Then 2022 happened, and he ranked just fourth on the team in receiving yards while ranking dead ass last in yards per route run among 80 qualified WRs. Not great!

DPJ: Actually posted more top-36 finishes (4) than Amari Cooper (2) with Deshaun Watson; this was far more of a 1.A/1.B situation than No. 1 and No. 2 down the stretch. The rising fourth-year receiver has demonstrated the ability to get all kinds of separation via double-moves, has made many great contested catches and boasts underrated open-field elusiveness (the man returned punts last year!).

I get the rationale for backing Moore straight up; No. 74 overall pick Cedric Tillman profiles as bigger competition to DPJ. The ex-Jets talent has also been earning rave reviews throughout the offseason with fantasy-friendly ideas surrounding the true versatility at hand.

This entry is less of an indictment on where Moore is going and more of a note that Peoples-Jones ALSO figures to immediately factor into three-WR sets of an offense led by one of the better QBs that was in the NFL only a few years ago. I LOVE throwing late-round darts at guys like DPJ and Rashid Shaheed; both have made the most of their opportunities and profile as cheap entries into potentially underrated passing attacks.