👀 Don't Ignore These NFL Rookies!
Breaking down the best OROY targets
Careful out there, vets. Don’t haze what you can’t kill.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
NFL OROY Preview: It’s a beautiful day in the Nabers-hood.
Watercooler: The Stanley Cup Final is set.
MLB Monday: Make Megill and the Mets a target.
It’s 6/03. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich.
It’s June. Mandatory mini-camps for every NFL team will happen over the month's first two weeks. Training camp opens in mid to late July. This is an important stretch for all NFL players, but it’s an especially big one for NFL rookies, who will be looking to carve out starting roles and make good impressions on teammates and coaches.
With player news starting to flow at a faster pace, now feels like a great time to take a more in-depth look at some of the biggest rookie names. As of now, here’s where the top six names sit for Offensive Rookie of the Year (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):
Caleb Williams +135
Jayden Daniels +650
Marvin Harrison Jr. +700
Malik Nabers +1800
Xavier Worthy +1800
Bo Nix +1800
Today, I’m going to outline two players I’m targeting for this award. We’ll be covering more NFL futures markets like this soon and also logging bets in our NFL Bet Tracker, so be sure to bookmark that for later on.
🪖 OROY Bet #1: Jayden Daniels (+700; bet365)
The closer we get to training camp, the more I like Daniels in this market. As Ian Hartitz noted in our pre-draft profile on Daniels, he’s an explosive player with a ton of rushing upside whose pocket passer capabilities could be better than expected. And it’s not like we don’t have a solid recent comparable for him winning this award, either.
In 2019, Kyler Murray entered the league in a weak QB class and posted decent but not spectacular passing numbers. However, he supplemented his passing numbers with 34 rushing yards per game (544 yards total) and had four rushing TDs. Daniels had a better missed tackle rate in college than Murray (0.31 per rush attempt to 0.18), and his explosive run rate was nearly on par (28.5% to 30.6%).
Another reason to like Daniels? He’s a virtual lock to start Week 1. The only other QB on the Commanders roster is Marcus Mariota, who has thrown for just 15 TDs against 9 INTs over his last 13 NFL starts. That puts him on par with betting favorite Caleb Williams, who is also slated to start Week 1 and as low as +135 to win this award.
As training camp hits and we get more reports about Daniels’ explosiveness, I expect the odds between Williams and Daniels will get closer. Until that happens — and even if/when it does — Daniels remains my current favorite to target for this award.
🗽 OROY Bet #2: Malik Nabers (+1800; DraftKings)
Nabers is dripping with potential. He’s fast (4.35 40-yard-dash), but it’s what he can do with the ball in his hands that sets him apart. The No. 6 overall pick forced 30 missed tackles last season and led all of college football in explosive plays with 34 catches of 20 yards or more. That’s likely going to add up to a lot YAC in the pros.
The argument against Nabers — and why his odds are nearly triple that of Marvin Harrison — is due to the fact he ended up on the Giants and is therefore tied to Daniel Jones, a QB who has never completed more than 70 passes to a single WR in a season. Jones may not be ideal, but given Nabers’ skillset, even Jones’ limitations may not be enough to hold him back from winning this award.
QBs Bo Nix and Drake Maye both have similar odds to Nabers, but their upside is questionable, and they could lose starts to established backups. Given the draft capital New York spent on Nabers and the fact their other starters include the one-dimensional Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson, a lack of volume or playing time isn’t something we need to worry about.
WRs have won this award in two of the past three seasons, so at his current odds, it’s hard to find a reason not to bet on the 20-year-old. You’ll have to cheer for Jones to an extent, but if it means cashing a +1800 bet, even the most staunch Danny Dimes haters should be on board with this play.
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🏆 It’s the Oilers vs Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals. Edmonton opens as underdogs to bring home the Cup to Canada.
🏒 Connor McDavid scored a filthy goal on Sunday. The Oilers Captain is heating up for Edmonton at exactly the right moment.
⛳ Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre took home the RBC Canadian Open with his Dad on the bag! One of the feel-good stories of the year.
👀 At least one bettor is fading the Celtics. Someone dropped a big bet on the Mavericks this weekend.
📺 Best Seinfeld Episode, who ya got? The Marine Biologist is an early favorite, but tons of sleepers are on the list.
🤸🏾♀️ Simone Biles just won her ninth All-Around Championship. Her legend keeps growing.
💰 The Justin Jefferson saga is over. His new contract makes him the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history.
🏈 ICYMI: NFL Bounce Back Teams for 2024. Can the Titans play AFC South Spoilers?
🍎 New York Mets F5 ML at Washington Nationals (-104; FanDuel)
Betting on the Mets is never easy. Their bullpen suffered another blown save on Sunday, turning a potential one-run win into a one-run loss. They continue to play in close games, with the vast majority of their games being decided by two runs or fewer. That provides some optimism for the team moving forward, but they’re going to need their bullpen to revert to early-season form.
For Monday, I’m looking to avoid the Mets' volatile bullpen and focus instead on the first five innings. They’ll send Tylor Megill to the bump, who looks like one of the most undervalued starters in baseball at the moment. Megill struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 2023, but he completely revamped his arsenal in the offseason. He added a cutter and a splitter to his repertoire, and the early results have been promising. Megill boasts a career-best 11.25 K/9 through his first three starts, and his ERA dipped to 1.69 after seven scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers in his last outing.
The Nationals will turn to MacKenzie Gore, who is an excellent pitcher in his own right. Gore has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.51 xERA this season, so both pitchers have the potential for success on any given night.
You could certainly consider the under in this spot, but I prefer the Mets from an offensive standpoint. New York ranks 13th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season (104), while the Nationals are merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers (92). Ultimately, I like their chances vs. Gore more than the Nationals against Megill.
