🚀 Happy Zach Charbonnet RB1 week!
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight Week 11 utilization takeaways, all the Sheesh moments from the weekend, and the top Waiver Wire adds for Week 12.
Would have been a lot cooler if MVS caught that game-winning 51-yard TD…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- Fly Eagles Fly: Jalen Hurts and company take down the Chiefs
- Utilization Report: Zach Charbonnet to the moon
- Sheesh Report: Don’t blame Justin Herbert for last Sunday’s loss
- Freedman’s (Thanksgiving) Favorites: An early look at Week 12
- The Zach Wilson era is over (for now)
- Week 12 Waiver Wire: You NEED this Packers WR
- It’s 11/21. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The Eagles found some level of revenge from last season’s Super Bowl, out-scoring the Chiefs 14-0 in the second half to eat the W 21-17.
Jalen Hurts only threw for 150 yards and took five sacks, but he (12-29-2) and D'Andre Swift (12-76-1) managed to get just enough done on the ground to spearhead the victory.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was forced to watch Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop a game-winning 51-yard TD just before Justin Watson let a near-miraculous 4th and 25 conversion fly right through his hands on the game’s final drive.
A few usage-based fantasy notes for the diehards (you):
- D'Andre Swift (64% snaps, 54% routes) continued to work as the offense's clear-cut featured RB1 coming out of the bye. The ex-Lions talent made multiple dazzling runs; he’s a locked-in top-12 option at the position the rest of the way.
- Eagles TE Jack Stoll (39% route rate) worked as the lead dog with Dallas Goedert (forearm) sidelined, but Grant Calcaterra (21%) and Albert Okwuegbunam (11%) split things up enough to render all three parties as non-viable fantasy options for the time being.
- While Chiefs WR Justin Watson (66% routes, 11 targets) led the way in terms of usage and opportunities, Kansas City continued to keep six different WRs involved. Rashee Rice (52% routes) notably didn't see a bump in usage coming out of the bye.
Final note: Eagles DT Jalen Carter tried to intercept a spike by diving between the center’s legs and it was awesome.
11 weeks down, six to go! While it might be tempting to spend time with family and friends around the holidays, it’s far more important than ever to get those fantasy rosters RIGHT for the playoff stretch.
Just kidding. Kind of. EITHER WAY — time to utilization, baby.
As the late, great Theodore Roosevelt once said: Utilization is the single most important factor in determining any fantasy football decision.
Lucky for you: Resident Fantasy Life director of analytics/all-around baller Dwain McFarland is once again here to spread the good word regarding all of Week 11’s key usage changes — and more importantly what it all means for Week 12 and beyond.
🐻 Justin Fields registered a monster rushing workload in his return.
Fields rushed for 104 yards on 18 attempts against the Lions. He handled a season-high 33% (14) of the team-designed rushing attempts, and his 14% (4) tied a season-high mark. Fields ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scramble rate at 9% – trailing only Lamar Jackson (12%).
The Bears registered their lowest DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) of the season at -17% in a close loss to their division rivals. Fields only dropped back to pass 23 times, throwing for 169 yards and a TD.
Regardless of the game script, Fields is a huge part of what the Bears do and offers immense fantasy upside. The former first-round NFL pick has averaged 9.7 attempts (designed plus scrambles) and 20.3 fantasy points in six healthy starts this season. Since 2008, QBs with nine or more attempts per game have averaged 21 fantasy points per contest.
Outlook: Fields is a mid-range QB1 with high-end QB1 upside.
🔔🐄 Zach Charbonnet is in line for an every-down workload.
Charbonnet took over the two-minute offense and long-down-distance work over the last four games, and now Kenneth Walker is set to miss time due to an oblique injury. In Week 11, the Round 2 NFL draft pick played 85% of snaps and bogarted 71% of the rushing attempts.
In total, Charbonnet registered 21 opportunities between 15 attempts and six targets. Given that the Seahawks have already shown us they trust Charbonnet on passing downs, an every-down role is very much possible.
Charbonnet is available in 56% of fantasy leagues and is the No. 1 priority on the waiver wire this week.
FAAB recommendation: 35%+
Outlook: Charbonnet UPGRADES to low-end RB1 status until Walker returns.
📈 Jaylen Warren just keeps scoring fantasy points.
Warren went off for 24 points in Week 11, thanks to a 74-yard TD scamper. The second-year RB’s play has forced the Steelers into a two-way split. Over the last three contests, he’s averaged 11.7 attempts, 3.3 targets and 19 fantasy points.
While it will be hard for Warren to keep up his three-game pace, his recent utilization pushes him into every-week starter range. Based on data from the last 12 years, backs with his profile averaged 13.2 points with an RB21 finish.
Outlook: Warren UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status.
More key utilization takeaways from Week 11 you NEED
Bad throws, bad bounces, bad calls, bad hands, bad whatever: All sorts of annoying stuff happens during any given Sunday that makes any fantasy manager simply say, “Sheesh!”.
While it hurts to dig up this PTFFD, focusing on these sorts of beyond-the-box-score factors can help us fully grasp what exactly happened before truly moving on to the next week of action.
Presenting: The Week 11 Sheesh Report.
⚡ Justin Herbert deserves better
A quick look at Herbert's box score and it seems like he had a perfectly okay performance. 260 passing yards and two scores through the air alongside an 8-73-0 rushing line. How greedy can fantasy managers truly be?
Well, here’s the thing: Herbert had not one, not two, not three, but four potential TD drives killed by nothing other than straight-up brutal drops:
Herbert hits Keenan Allen in the flat for what should have either been a seven-yard TD or, at a minimum, a six-yard gain and a fresh set of downs. Alas: Dropped.
Herbert again hit Allen between the numbers near the goal line – this time on what should have produced a seven-yard score. One problem: Dropped.
Herbert nearly threw a second score to international superstar TE Stone Smartt on a 10-yard strike down the seam. Too bad: Dropped.
Despite all of this, Herbert finds a way to locate rookie WR Quentin Johnston deep downfield on what should have at least been a 40-plus yard gain to set up a game-tying field goal – if not a legit 70-yard house call. But you guessed it: Dropped.
Hell, maybe even five: TE Donald Parham dropped a 10-plus yard gain that would have converted a 4th and 4 attempt. The overall drop compilation is truly as brutal as you will ever see.
Herbert’s six dropped passes were tied for the second-highest single-game mark of 2023. Let’s just say the 25-year-old QB was fed up by the 4th quarter; here’s to hoping PFF’s highest-graded QB of Week 11 gets just a little bit more help from his friends in the future.
🙏 Can Baker Mayfield get some help in the 4th quarter one of these days?
Yes, the former No. 1 overall pick wasn’t perfect during the Buccaneers’ Week 11 loss to the 49ers, notably taking four sacks and having at least two would-be INTs dropped.
Also yes, Mayfield had not one but two fourth-quarter TDs dropped on separate drives (wait for it) in a 13-point loss.
The drop by TE Cade Otton (12 yards) was a bit more egregious than a diving Deven Thompkins (9), but still: Sheesh.
Throw in last week’s horrific Mike Evans drop, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that Mayfield could easily have 18 passing TDs this season — more than guys like Jared Goff (16) and C.J. Stroud. Don’t get it twisted: Baker hasn’t performed close to as well as either of those QBs this season, but credit to the often-criticized veteran for at least putting forward a pretty solid bounce-back campaign through 11 weeks of 2023.
At a minimum, give Mayfield credit for having Evans (17-game pace: 82-1,326-12) well on his way to chalking up his record 10th-straight seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards. Cool? Cool.
Everything else that made fantasy managers say “Sheesh!” in Week 11
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The leader behind all of this goes by many names. Whether it’s “The Prop Prophet”, “The Parlay Patriarch”, or (my personal favorite) “Captain Under(wear)”: Matthew Freedman is here with his a special edition of his “Freedman’s Favorites” — Thanksgiving goodness that you NEED to see to believe.
🦃 Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Commanders
Prescott was slow to start the year, but in the five games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss, he has passed for 1,543 yards and 14 TDs with just two INTs and added 21-96-2 rushing. In four of those games, he has been a top-three fantasy QB.
The Commanders are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.8) and just allowed undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito to pass for 246 yards and three TDs in a 31-19 win for the Giants. Without EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, whom they traded at the deadline, the Commanders should offer Prescott a consistently clean pocket.
As a frontrunning producer, Prescott is in an ideal situational spot: At home, he’s 31-25-1 ATS (7.6% ROI, per Action Network). As a favorite, he’s 47-34-2 ATS (12.0% ROI). In division, 26-11 ATS (37.0% ROI). And as a divisional home favorite … 13-4 ATS (50.3% ROI).
If the Cowboys somehow find their way to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Prescott will be live for MVP, where he’s currently +1800 (BetMGM).
🦃 David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Packers
I logged two winning bets last week on Montgomery in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker -- anytime TD (+105) and over 49.5 rushing yards (-110) -- and there’s a chance I’ll have similar positions this week.
Despite missing multiple weeks to injury, Montgomery is No. 3 in the league with 11 carries inside the five-yard line. Aside from Week 6, which he exited early after just 18 snaps, Montgomery has scored a TD in every game played and amassed 632 yards on 112 carries and 11 targets across his six other contests.
Against the Packers in Week 4, Montgomery went off for 141 yards and three TDs on 32 carries and two targets, and the Packers could be without LB De'Vondre Campbell (shoulder), who left Week 11 with an injury.
Speaking of Freedman’s Favorites, he was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 12 rankings set here!
😞 Key defensive players will be out for at least four games. This won’t help the Chargers, and ANOTHER suspension in Denver.
🥳 Tank Dell victory lap szn? Tank Dell victory lap szn.
😬 Not the greatest update on Justin Jefferson (hamstring). Week 14 looks more and more likely.
📊 Who’s overperforming? Who’s primed to bounce back? Let’s find out. Week 11 Utilization Data is live.
🧑⚕️ Two of the Seahawks’ key offensive pieces are banged up. Hurt, not injured.
🐏 Another injury to the back-to-back WR1 in PPR points per game. Take my eyes but not his ankle.
😅 Another Tuesday, another OC fired. The only way to go from here is up, right?
👀 VERY surprising injury update out of Baltimore. So you’re saying there’s a chance.
✈️ The QB change is officially official. Why would it be between Muhammad and McLovin.
👿 Like Bobby Boucher’s Mama always said: “Full-PPR scoring is the DEVIL.”
🍝 Absolutely elite celebration here. [Inarticulate Italian noises].
You’ve got a fantasy football fever — and the only cure is elite Week 12 waiver wire analysis that will help you clinch that fantasy football championship 40 days from now. Oh, what’s that? Fantasy Life resident waiver wire expert Chris Allen is here to break down that exact topic? Well, then what are we waiting for? Let’s get after it!
After a Thursday night marred by season-ending injuries, the rest of the NFL action brought our hype levels back up.
Tony Pollard got in the end zone. Christian Watson scored. Even Keenan Allen, who came into the weekend questionable with a shoulder injury, put up another monster performance.
But our rosters are made up of more than just our stars. And we’ll need to keep them fresh with the compressed schedule this week and playoffs right around the corner. So, after going through the data from the weekend, I’ve found the best adds heading into Week 12.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
🧀 Jayden Reed, Packers
I’ll (briefly) ignore Jayden Reed’s big day to highlight a potential schematic shift for the Packers’ offense.
Reed’s volatility as a fantasy asset stems from his route rate. Last week, it was at 57.1% (third among the WRs). But, judging by Jordan Love’s rate of using 11 personnel (three-receiver sets), it’s no wonder we saw a bit more of Reed:
- Week 9: 44.1%
- Week 10: 56.9%
- Week 11: 67.8%
The rookie’s route rate jumped from 57.1% to 77.3% on Sunday. HC Matt LaFleur gave Love more passing-game options, but Reed was at least able to tie for a team lead in target share (15.8%). And, of course, it’s worth noting that the coaching staff used Reed on the end-around rush to get him into the box (and this was with Aaron Jones still on the field).
Jones will miss some time. The team had to evaluate Dontayvion Wicks for a concussion. On a short week, Reed’s opportunity and situation set him up for an encore performance on Thanksgiving.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 7%
🕺 Odell Beckham, Ravens
The impact of losing Mark Andrews for the rest of the season cannot be understated. He was first or second in every opportunity metric for Baltimore. But while it’s fair to wonder what his absence will do for the Ravens’ pass-game efficiency, there’ll be some more attempts to disperse among the WRs.
And Odell Beckham was already becoming a primary part of aerial attack.
Despite Zay Flowers having the highest route rate (90.2%), Beckham has turned back the clock over the last month of games.
- Target Share: 19.2% (1st among all BAL WRs)
- Air Yard Share: 28.4% (1st)
- TPRR: 26.7% (1st)
- YPRR: 2.83 (1st)
- Red-zone Target Share: 19.0% (1st)
Baltimore has had a 0.0% DBOE rate since Week 8 (meaning they’re meeting expectations in terms of when/how often they pass). Let’s see if/how much it changes in Week 12 without one of their top options on the field. Regardless, Beckham figures to be a beneficiary, giving him WR2 appeal in Week 12 and potentially beyond.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%
All The Week 12 Waiver Wire Adds You NEED
