🏈 It's an NFL Saturday!
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we preview the Ravens vs. Steelers game and Colts vs. Texans game while also recapping all the injury news you need for Saturday's slate.
Welcome to Week 18: Three teams couldn’t care more, and one team shouldn’t care at all but might care a little …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Prop Drop:
- Saturday Injuries: It could be worse.
- NFL Awards Parlay: $5 invested well!
- BAL vs. PIT: Ravens in a meaningless game?
- IND vs. HOU: Win and in.
- It’s 1/6: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
Today, the powers of pigskin have granted us two final NFL Saturday games for the regular season. Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich highlight their favorite bets for these games later in the newsletter, but here I want to note the impactful injuries and expected absences.
🚑 Ravens
With the No. 1 seed locked up, the Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson (rest), WR Odell Beckham (rest), and almost certainly WR Zay Flowers (calf, D) on offense.
In the secondary, they’ll be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) and maybe SS Kyle Hamilton (knee, Q) and CBs Brandon Stephens (ankle, Q) and Ronald Darby (illness, Q).
In total, I’ve deducted 11 — ELEVEN! — points of value from the Ravens this week in my ATS projections based on the players they’re likely to lack.
Even so, the Ravens are still one of my favorite Week 18 bets.
🚑 Steelers
QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) practiced fully this week and isn’t listed on the final injury report — but he won’t play. He has been straight-up benched for No. 3 QB Mason Rudolph, whom I now have as an ATS upgrade of +1.1 points vs. Pickett after his strong performance over the past two weeks (11.8 AY/A). (For more, check out our QB ATS Value Chart).
Overall, the Steelers enter this matchup healthy. Only three players are listed as questionable — LB Elandon Roberts (pec), FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), and SS Trenton Thompson (neck) — but they should all play after ending the week with limited practices.
🚑 Colts
C Ryan Kelly (ankle) and LG Quenton Nelson (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday, but both closed the week with limited practices and will likely play through questionable tags, as should No. 1 CB Kenny Moore (back), RT Braden Smith (knee), and No. 2 RB Zack Moss (forearm), all of whom practiced fully for multiple sessions.
Aside from the players on IR, the Colts are healthy.
🚑 Texans
The injury report for the Texans isn’t pretty. On offense, they’ll be without WR Noah Brown (hip) and very likely WR Robert Woods (hip, Q). On defense, EDGE Jonathan Greenard (ankle) will miss his second straight game.
But I expect EDGE Will Anderson (ankle) and DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle) to play through their questionable tags, just as they did last week, when they had the same DNP-DNP-LP practice pattern. I’m less optimistic on DT Maliek Collins (hip, Q), who missed Week 17, but his limited practice on Thursday gives him a shot.
And LT Laremy Tunsil (groin, Q) will probably play after back-to-back limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
Despite having an ugly injury report, the Texans aren’t in terrible shape.
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💰 Saturday TD prop: Get down with Dalton.
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🔪 Iron sharpens iron. Where sharp money is betting for Week 18.
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🐬 Swimming with Dolphins from the comfort of your couch. Freedman’s best bets for Week 18.
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🚤 Rovell on McAfee: “Bigger than ESPN.”
Week 18 is one of the trickiest of the year for betting, and we have an intriguing division rivalry to kick things off on Saturday. The Ravens have already clinched their spot in the postseason, while the Steelers will be looking to improve their odds with a win. Can they head into Baltimore and take care of business? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Steelers-Ravens.
👍 Best Bet: Ravens +3.0 (+100, BetMGM)
Unfortunately, we’ve missed the best line here with the Ravens.
They were listed as four-point underdogs earlier in the week, but the sharps have hammered them in this spot. They’ve received 96% of the dollars on 67% of the bets, causing this line to dip to three points across the industry.
The Ravens have already ruled out six players for this contest – including MVP favorite Lamar Jackson – while Zay Flowers is doubtful. Six other players are questionable, so this week’s version of the Ravens will look far different than the one we’ve seen of late.
Still, even with all those absences, the Ravens may be the better team. The Steelers are fortunate to be sitting at 9-7, checking in with an expected record of 7.2-8.8.
Additionally, the Ravens fit some powerful trends. Per the Action Network, John Harbaugh is 61% ATS when getting points, including 71% as a divisional underdog. The underdog in head-to-head matchups between Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin is also 23-5-3 ATS and a near-perfect 18-1-3 when getting at least a field goal.
Ultimately, the public might be intrigued by backing the Steelers in a “must-win” game against the Ravens’ backups, but the pros could not disagree more. The Ravens were in this exact same situation in 2019 – Jackson’s first MVP season – and managed to win outright as underdogs to keep their division rivals out of the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself.
⬇️ Top Prop: Allen Robinson Under 1.5 Receptions (+122, FanDuel)
Most of the Ravens’ players don’t have props up yet, so we’re going to have to stick with Pittsburgh. Fortunately, the under on 1.5 grabs for Robinson at +122 is pretty tasty.
Robinson has served as the Steelers’ No. 3 receiver this season, and he’s not even seeing all of those responsibilities. He had just a 58% route participation in Week 17, which he turned into a whopping zero targets. His numbers had been better in recent weeks, but he still has eight games this season with one reception or fewer.
We currently have Robinson projected for 1.4 grabs, making this prop essentially a toss-up. Any time I can get a toss-up at +122, I’m going to be interested in taking it. Another week where Robinson gets a decent cardio workout without much actual production is certainly possible.
🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+1392, FanDuel)
- Ravens ML
- Under 34.5
- Tyler Huntley anytime TD
I’m going to build this SGP around a potential Ravens win. If that happens, I think their best chance is by keeping this game under the listed total of 34.5. If the Steelers manage to score 17+ points, it’s going to be hard for the Ravens to keep up with Huntley.
Speaking of Huntley, let’s add in an anytime touchdown for the Ravens’ Week 18 quarterback. Huntley isn’t the same level of athlete as Jackson – almost no one is – but he can still use his legs as a weapon. He has two rushing scores in his eight career starts, and the Ravens aren’t exactly loaded at running back. They could certainly use him around the goal line if they get in close.
Two rookie head coaches. Two teams that combined for seven wins in 2022. One playoff spot… The Colts and Texans face off in a game dripping with storylines. So who do we trust and which players will excel (or falter)? Geoff Ulrich breaks down his best bets for Steelers-Ravens.
👌 Best Bet: Texans -1.0 (BetMGM)
- Play to: Texans -2.5 (-110)
Both of these teams have rookie head coaches and holes on defense. However, Houston’s offense is much more potent with CJ Stroud back and ranks 13th in offensive DVOA. The Colts aren’t terrible in that aspect either (18th in offensive DVOA), but the edge at QB with Stroud (12th in EPA per play) vs. Gardner Minshew (20th in EPA per play) is a big one.
Ultimately, I trust the Texans (and specifically Stroud) to do a better job of taking advantage of their edges.
Houston’s passing offense matches up well with a limited Colts secondary that is 27th in yards per attempt over their last three games. Getting Will Anderson Jr. back last week was also huge for their rush defense, which has allowed just 2.1 yards per carry over their last three games.
I bet Houston early in the week at +1.5 in our FREE bet tracker but would feel good playing them to -1.5. I don’t expect a blowout but getting Houston under 3.0 in a Stroud vs. Minshew matchup feels like a good place to be.
💪 Top Prop: Gardner Minshew INT (-106, FanDuel)
- Play to: -110
Minshew enters this game having thrown nine INTs over his last 12 games since he took over as the starter in Week 5. While he’s not been a complete disaster he is and has been a turnover-prone quarterback for much of his career.
Minshew threw an INT in recent games against the Falcons and Bengals, two teams who were able to hold the Colts to well under 4.0 yards per carry. And that’s a situation I can see playing out again against Houston. The Texans have held their last three opponents to an insane 2.1 yards per carry and also have a secondary that has some talent with the likes of Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson.
Houston now has 10 INTs over their last eight games and looks to be mostly healthy with the aforementioned Nelson off the injury report. I like playing this up to -115 and it’s certainly a prop that could be used in a same-game parlay scenario with a Texans outright win or cover.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+1100, DraftKings)
- Texans -1.0
- Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 INTs
- Michael Pittman Jr. Over 78.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor Under 72.5 rushing yards
We discussed the Minshew INT portion of this bet above, and if he is turning the ball over that will lead to a lot of in-game scenarios where the Texans are ahead. In that kind of gamescript, Jonathan Taylor will likely see fewer carries but Michael Pittman Jr.’s target share will likely rise (Pittman has gone over 80 yards in six of his last 10 games).
If Taylor gets shut down and the Texans do get a lead, it would also follow that Devin Singletary’s carries will go up. Singletary faces a Colts defense that has allowed an opposing RB to go for 70 yards or more in six of their last seven starts.
Clearing five legs on one ticket is anything but automatic but these props all correlate well with each other and provide us a solid +1100 line to chase for Saturday.