🏒 Let's do that Hockey! (one more time)
It's Oilers vs. Panthers for the Stanley Cup
Jesus Christ… that’s Connor McDavid
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog.
NHL Finals: How to play for an Oilers win (and a Game 1 total).
Watercooler: Picks for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov.
MLB Friday: Target Nick Lodolo and the Reds.
It’s 6/7. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
The NHL season started back in mid-October. Both Florida and Edmonton have taken markedly different paths to get to this point, but both teams are deserving finalists.
Florida has been dominant 5v5 and leads all playoff teams in xGF% (55.02) at even strength. The Oilers lead all playoff teams in penalty-kill and power-play efficiency but have also held their own at even strength; they’ve only registered four fewer high-danger scoring chances than the Panthers in the playoffs.
These two teams are set relatively close on the series line, with the Panthers being the slight favorites (-135; DraftKings) over the Oilers (+115; DraftKings). I anticipate this being a close series, but at these prices, I lean Edmonton.
The Oilers are a better even-strength team than any of Florida’s previous three opponents. Despite a Game 6 that saw Edmonton get outshot 34-10 by Dallas, the teams were dead even in high-danger scoring chances for the series. That’s the Oilers in a nutshell. While they won't always land the most shots on net, when they get their chances, they’ll be quality ones.
Additionally, while Stuart Skinner can be inconsistent, his upside remains underrated. He posted a .931 SV% at 5v5 in December — back when the Oilers went on their run — and stopped 72 of the last 76 shots the Stars threw at him in Round 3. If anything, I would be more wary of putting too much faith in the 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky, who is facing a team with more speed and quick strike ability than he’s seen all playoffs.
💧 Oilers to win Series 4-2 (+500; bet365)
Right now, an Oilers sweep (Oilers to win 4-0) is set at +1200 on bet365, which gives us an implied probability of 7.67%. That’s a low percentage, but it honestly doesn’t seem low enough given the Panthers' depth and overall experience. In contrast, the Oilers odds to win the series 4-2 (in six games) is set at +500 — an implied probability of 16.67%. That’s just over 2x the odds of an Oilers sweep, a gap that doesn’t seem big enough to me. If anything, a 4-2 series win seems like it should entail a larger portion of any outcomes that have the Oilers winning, making that +500 seem like relatively good value.
This number is also big enough that if you got to Game 6, with the Oilers having a shot at closing things out, you could hedge with Florida and potentially still make out with more profit than a straight series bet on Edmonton would.
If you’re up for a more in-depth series preview, Matthew Freedman and I also discussed this bet (and more) in our Stanley Cup Betting Podcast.
📈 Game 1: Over 5.5 Goals (-115; bet365)
Over 6.5 goals (+130)
Over 7.5 goals (+300)
The stars on both teams will be well-rested in Game 1, making it a good time to play for a higher-scoring affair. We’ve seen elimination games go almost exclusively under as a result of fatigue in these playoffs, but series openers have been a different story, specifically for Edmonton.
The Oilers are 2-1 to the over in their three previous series openers and played in one of the highest-scoring games of the playoffs against the Kings back in Round 1 (a 7-4 Oilers win). They also played in a back-and-forth Game 1 against Vancouver (5-4 Canucks OT win) in Round 2. Overall, they’re 4-2 to the over in the first two games of their series in these playoffs.
Florida has been a stellar defensive team but seeing the Oilers speed for the first time could give them problems. I also trust the skill players of the Panthers to respond to any hypothetical Oilers barrage, especially with an unpredictable goalie like Skinner on the other side. His presence also brings in more shootout scenarios for Game 1, where the over could hit by multiple goals – making alternate lines at 6.5 and 7.5 playable for me.
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💥 Mark Drumheller breaks down the UFC card for Saturday. Play this over for Cannonier vs. Imavov.
🦬 People can’t get enough of the Buffs. Despite long odds, Colorado remains a popular National Championship bet.
🎯 The Mavericks didn’t have an answer for Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1. His MVP odds are worth watching.
🤦♂️ Luka Doncic scored 30 points and STILL didn’t hit his over. You can bet unders people.
💰 Drake has some big bets on the NBA and NHL Finals. He’ll need some help after the Mavericks lost Game 1.
📈 Adam Hadwin (+12000) grabbed the first-round lead at the Memorial. Some old-school practice methods did him some good.
⚖️ New details in the Jontay Porter betting saga. Names of the defendants were released.
😴 The Jays continue to start slower than a teenager on a school day. 28 straight games without a run in the first inning.
🗓️ The NFL’s preseason schedule is out! Caleb Williams and the Bears debut in the HOF Game on August 1st.
With the NHL and NBA both off until the weekend, we’re going to need something to hold us over on Friday. Fortunately, we’ve got a 14-game MLB slate to choose from. Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite wagers for Friday’s slate.
🌭 Cincinnati Reds ML vs. Chicago Cubs (-120; FanDuel)
Nick Lodolo will be on the bump for the Reds on Friday, and he’s one of my favorite pitchers to back at the moment. Lodolo missed most of last season with an injury, but he’s back to being his usual dominant self in 2024. He’s racked up a 3.11 ERA through eight starts, and his 2.94 xERA is even better.
Lodolo has excelled at missing bats and limiting the damage on balls in play, which is an excellent combination. He should be able to mow through a Cubs’ lineup that has been awful against southpaws of late. They have a 61 wRC+ in that split over the past 30 days, which is the second-worst mark in baseball.
On the other hand, the Reds’ offense has feasted on left-handers of late. They own a 134 wRC+ over the past month, and that figure has increased to 175 over the past 14 days.
They’ll face a southpaw in Justin Steele on Friday, so the Reds have the clear advantage offensively. Steele has bounced back after a disastrous start to the year, but I still rate Lodolo as the better pitcher.
