🗓 NFL Schedule Release
How to profit off the biggest winners and losers
Find someone who loves you as much as the schedule makers hate the 49ers.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NFL Schedule: Fly Eagles Fly?
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It’s 5/17. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
The NFL schedule was released on Wednesday, and it’s a time of great fun for NFL social media teams. They can plan a humorous video around their upcoming opponents, giving fans a tiny sip to quench their thirst for professional football.
That said, the schedule release is far more than just an opportunity to make a Sims-inspired video or make fun of opposing franchises. Who you play – and when you play them – has a massive impact on how your season will ultimately go. It matters for fantasy purposes, and it matters for betting as well.
Just look at last season. According to Sharp Football, among the 15 teams with the easiest projected schedules, 11 finished with winning records. All seven teams with a Vegas win total of at least 8.5 and an easier-than-average schedule finished above .500 (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers).
On the flip side, among the 15 teams with the hardest projected schedules, only five finished above .500. Those teams included the Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Cowboys, so unless you’re a truly elite team, it’s very difficult to overcome a tough schedule.
Now that the 2024 schedule has been released, let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers for the upcoming season:
🦅 Winner — Philadelphia Eagles
By my estimation, no team sees a bigger upgrade after the schedule release than the Eagles. For starters, they have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule based on opponent win totals, which is the top mark in the division. Their biggest rivals – the Cowboys – check in at No. 22 after playing the third-easiest schedule last year. Overall, the Cowboys have the second-largest increase in schedule difficulty for 2024, also a clear edge for Philly.
Additionally, the Eagles are going to benefit from rest advantages far more than their opponents. They have an aggregate rest edge of +12 days after posting a mark of -6 last season. They’ll have more rest than their opponent on four separate occasions, while they’ll be at a rest disadvantage only once.
The only real negative with the Eagles’ schedule is that they’ll have to play a “home” game in Brazil, which costs them a game in Philly. However, that game is going to come in Week 1, so they’ll have more time than usual to prepare. They also won’t play until Monday Night Football the following Week, and with the Brazil game played on Friday, they’ll have ample time to recover.
The Eagles and Cowboys are both +125 to win the NFC East on BetMGM, but I give the Eagles the edge after the schedule release.
⛏ Loser — San Francisco 49ers
Does someone in the commissioner's office have a problem with the 49ers? Last year, the 49ers had an apocalyptic rest disadvantage compared to their opponents. They had an aggregate of -20 days compared to their opponents, which feels borderline unfair.
Somehow, the 49ers are in a worse spot in 2024.
Their rest edge checks in at -21 days overall. Only the Colts (-17) and Broncos (-17) are in the same ballpark, and those teams and the Seahawks (-13) are the only other teams at worse than -10. The 49ers will be at a rest disadvantage on eight separate occasions while having the rest edge only twice. That’s borderline criminal.
What did the 49ers do to deserve this kind of treatment in back-to-back years? Was Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch mean to Roger Goodell’s mom or something?
The good news is that the 49ers are talented enough to overcome it. They managed to do so last year at least, winning 12 games and finishing with the top seed in the NFC. The big question is – can they do it again?
More NFL Schedule Winners and Losers
🚨 NFL Schedule Unveiled
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Round 2 of the NHL playoffs has two game sixes on tap for Friday night. The Bruins host the Panthers, and the Avalanche host the Stars. Both home teams staved off elimination in Game 5, but can they do it again in Game 6? Geoff Ulrich investigates in today’s preview….
⭐ Dallas Stars Moneyline (+100; DraftKings)
The Stars blew a chance to close out the Avalanche in Game 5, eventually ceding five goals on the night to a motivated and fired-up Colorado offense. Two power-play goals in that contest helped along the Avalanche and the penalty-kill is an area I’m sure the Stars will be more detail-oriented with in Game 6.
Despite the comeback win in Game 5, the Avalanche are still dealing with a semi-skeleton crew lineup after the loss of Valeri Nichuskin. They’ve also had an injury to their top-pairing defenseman in Devon Toews and shaky goaltending from Alexander Georgiev, who enters this game with a .890 SV% and has been, by far, the worse of the two starters in this series.
The Stars have already shown their mettle after coming back from 0-2 down in Round 1 and have been a dominant road team all season (including the playoffs, they are 30-11-5 on the road in 2023-24). They’re also 3-0 in Colorado over their last three visits to Ball Arena and have averaged 5.33 goals per game in those wins. Given the Avalanche’s depth issues and the goaltenders on either side, I’d have this matchup rated closer to a pick’em but would play Dallas down to -110 today.
I simply don’t think the Avalanche have the depth or goaltending to come back in this series, and with Dallas’ road record, seeing them close things out tonight feels like the most obvious way for this series to end.
🏒 Carter Verhaeghe Anytime Goal (+200; bet365)
Going back to the well with a Verhaeghe goal prop today is well warranted. The forward has cooled off from a scoring perspective since the start of the Bruins series (five goals in five games vs Tampa Bay, one goal in five games vs Boston) but it hasn’t been from a lack of shooting volume. He’s landed 17 shots on net in this series while also attempting 43 shots overall.
The Panthers got outplayed by Boston in Game 5 but have still been the more dominant 5v5 team in this series. Verhaeghe is also no stranger to big moments. He’s the Panthers’ all-time leader in playoff goals and has five career OT goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As this series progresses, it’s hard to see him being held off the scoresheet for much longer.
With this being a huge game and Verhaghe’s price now sitting as high as +200 (the largest it’s been all playoffs), it’s a solid time to reinvest.
