😰 Oilers, Canucks, Game 7
Can Connor McDavid get past Vancouver?
Game 7: The best two words in sports — outside of “parlay winner”
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
NHL Playoffs: Play for the Oilers talent to prevail.
Watercooler: Celtics to roll past Pacers?
MLB Monday: Runs at a premium in Tampa.
It’s 5/20. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
It may only be Round 2 of the NHL playoffs, but tonight’s Game 7 has massive implications for the Edmonton Oilers. This season marks the ninth year that three-time league MVP Connor McDavid has been on the team. To date, the Oilers have only managed to reach the Conference Finals once during his tenure (2021-22, where the Avalanche swept them), and a loss tonight would mark the fifth time in six postseason appearances that McDavid’s season ended in Round 2 or earlier.
To raise the stakes even higher, the roadblock currently in front of McDavid and the Oilers is also a team that most predicted wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. The Canucks were around -140 to -150 at most sportsbooks in the preseason playoff prop odds to MISS the playoffs but managed to outperform the Oilers in both the regular season (109 points to 104 points) and the head-to-head meetings (7-3 in favor of Vancouver this season).
Teams that win Game 5 when tied 2-2 in the NHL playoffs have close to an 80% success rate (of closing out the series). However, the Oilers’ Game 6 win (a dominant 5-1 route) certainly put some doubt in the minds of those who saw the Canucks as the superior team.
So will we see another year of McDavid’s prime go up in flames, or can Edmonton prevail and put an end to the Canucks run? Let’s dive in.
💧 Edmonton Oilers Win in Regulation (+105; bet365)
Things looked bleak for the Oilers just 72 hours ago. They were outplayed by the Canucks in Game 5 (who held them to 23 shots on net) and were facing elimination in Game 6 on home ice.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch made the gutsy call to switch back to the much-maligned Stuart Skinner in net, and the team rallied to hold Vancouver to just 15 shots in a 5-1 win. The Oilers also managed to dominate play at even strength, something they haven’t done almost the entire series, landing all five of their goals at 5v5.
Then, as if they needed more momentum, it was announced yesterday that Vancouver forward Brock Boeser, who leads all Canucks skaters in goals this postseason, had been ruled out of Game 7 due to a blood clot. This leaves the somewhat anemic Canucks’ offense down their best scorer and in need of another massive game from their third-string goalie, Artrus Silovs — who feels a little like Cinderella on the 11th stroke of Midnight after getting beat five times in Game 6.
The Oilers’ moneyline price has moved as low as -166 on some sportsbooks, so if you are targeting Edmonton, the regulation line or puck line is likely the better option. Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner seems to have regained his confidence (and had a 33-save road shutout in Round 1) and a best-in-class power play capable of extending leads or breaking open a game at any time.
I expect this number to get shorter by puck drop but would play the Oilers down to -105. Vancouver gets credit for keeping this series extremely close for five games, but I would rather play for the upside of the Oilers’ talent to prevail than take a swing with the big prices on the home underdog.
📉 Quinn Hughes Under 0.5 Points (+150; bet365)
Vancouver has scored just six times over the last three games, and their power play is the worst of the remaining playoff teams. Hughes is coming off a season where he landed 75 assists, but he’s been slowed in the playoffs. Through 12 playoff games, he has zero goals and has points in just six of those contests.
Both the Oilers and Predators have dynamic penalty kills that have frustrated Vancouver’s power play and slowed Highes considerably — he has just 11 shots on net in this series. Given how tightly Game 7s can be called, there may not be many man advantages for Hughes to participate in tonight, either.
At +150, his under suggests a 40% implied probability, but his true hit rate (to the under) in these playoffs has been higher. Given the circumstances, there are decent edges lurking on several unders tonight in the prop department, with Hughes offering some of the best overall value.
🏒 Winner Takes All
The best two words in sports... Game 7
In Game 7, the ice melts with anticipation, and each shift is a story waiting to be told. The playoffs have been nothing short of electric this season. Every play feels like a pivotal moment, and when it comes to Game 7, every moment counts. Get in on the action with BetMGM today!
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🍀 It’s Pacers v. Celtics in the Eastern Final. And surprise, Boston are big favorites to advance.
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🌟 The Stars advance. Dallas shook off a controversial overturned goal (in OT) to oust Colorado.
🎢 Minnesota vs. Denver was a straight-up roller coaster. Neither team respected the spread or home-court advantage.
🧠 Speaking of Denver, the Nuggets blew a massive lead in Game 7. At least one bettor was counting on that outcome.
📃 In case you missed it, we broke down the winners and losers from the 2024 NFL schedule release. The Falcons look set to fly high.
With a relatively quiet night in the world of sports, it’s a great time to check in on the diamond. There have been some big surprises to start the year, and Monday brings out a new slate of series to choose from. Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite options for tonight’s slate.
⬇️ Red Sox vs. Rays F5 Under 4.0 (-125; BetMGM)
This matchup features two pitchers that are clear buys at this point in the season. The Red Sox will turn to Tanner Houck, who has been outstanding to start the year. He ranks fifth in Pitching+ among qualified starters, trailing only the elite quartet of Jared Jones, Corbin Burnes, Zach Wheeler, and Tarik Skubal. He combines an elite walk rate (4.7%), groundball rate (56.2%), and barrel rate (3.7%), making it difficult for opposing offenses to string enough baserunners together to score. His ERA is a sparkling 2.17 through his first nine starts, and his 2.24 FIP suggests it isn’t particularly fluky.
On the other side, Taj Bradley is dripping with potential. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball heading into last season, and he’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA through his first two starts this season. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, and his Stuff+ sits at 109 since debuting last year.
The Red Sox did make a bunch of hard contact against Bradley in their last outing, but I’m buying his talent level. Under 4.0 over the first five innings is a solid option.
