š¤ OK, We Missed the Mark
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we highlight what we've gotten right and what we've gotten wrong this year, early Week 7 betting lines, and more.
Maybe the 17-game (18-week) season isnāt all badā¦
In todayās Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- What Weāve Gotten Right & Wrong: MVPsā¦ and moreā¦
- Adjusted Week 6 Scores: Falcons ābeatā Commanders.
- Early Lines: Back the Lions as dogs?
- Water Cooler: The public teams continue to crush.
- MNF: Can the Cowboys bounce back vs. the Chargers?
- Itās 10/16: Take it away, Matthew Freedmanā¦
In the old days of 2020, when we had a 16-game season, it was easy for everyone to look at a teamās record, see four games played, and say, āHereās how this team is doing a quarter of the way through the year.ā
Now that we have a 17-game campaign, itās harder to make such neat statements.
Hereās the thing: The season is driven more by weeks than by games, and we have 18 weeks to work with.
Iām no mathematician. By my reckoning, Iām up a nice +69 units as a sports bettor this year. But it does look like 18 is cleanly divisible by six -- and we just concluded Week 6 (withstanding Monday Night Football).
So now that weāre ā¦calculating ā¦ a third of the way through the season, I want to survey some of my preseason predictions and see which of my assumptions (as of now) seem to have been significantly right and wrong.
I think this exercise will help orient me as I enter the second third of the season.
Note: What follows isnāt a complete accounting of everything I got right and wrong. Itās just a consideration of several items that stand out to me currently.
š What Iāve Gotten Right (So Far)
š MVP Candidates
These are the three MVP bets I made in the preseason.
- Jalen Hurts: +1200
- Tua Tagovailoa: +2200
- Brock Purdy: +5000
All of these bets are logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, by the way.
In investing in these three QBs, I was buying into this general thesis: They would all play well enough to be in the MVP conversation, and their teams would all have strong win/loss records.
As of writing (8 pm ET on Sunday), all three are in the top five in MVP odds, and their teams are all 5-1.
We still have a lot of games left, but I expect Hurts, Tagovailoa, and Purdy (and the Eagles, Dolphins, and 49ers) to continue to impress as the season unfolds.
š Lamar Jackson Under 3,500.5 Yards Passing
A lot was made this offseason of Jackson getting OC Todd Monken and presumably having the best WR unit of his career.
Jackson hasnāt played poorly, but the pass-happy offense people expected to see has yet to materialize ā and that makes the Ravens a less dangerous team.
š What Iāve Gotten Wrong (So Far)
š¹ Patrick Mahomes: Offensive Player of the Year (+3000)
This award often goes to non-QBs, but if a QB balls out ā as Mahomes did in 2018 with his 5,097-yard, 50-touchdown passing exhibition ā he can win both MVP and OPOY.
And Mahomes has finished top four four times and top two thrice in OPOY voting. Almost every year, heās a candidate to win this award.
Entering 2023, I figured that he would build upon the success he had last year in his first season without former No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill. I was wrong.
The Chiefs havenāt been bad this year. Theyāve lost only one game ā and that was in Week 1, by one point, without TE Travis Kelce.
But the Chiefs ā at least right now ā lack the stratospheric offensive upside I imagined they could possess.
š¤® Najee Harris: Most Yards Rushing (+3000)
Gross.
Entering the season, I thought the Steelers offense would be much better than it has been to this point under second-year QB Kenny Pickett.
And Harris was top-five in carries in his two prior NFL campaigns (No. 2 in 2021 with 307 carries, No. 5 in 2022 with 272).
So the general thesis was this: āGood Offense + Volume Back = Potential for Lots of Rushing Yardsā... but it hasnāt worked out that way.
With a -31 point differential, the Steelers are lucky to be 3-2.
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his āadjusted scoresā based on the underlying production data. Here are two breakdowns from his advanced game reviews for Week 6.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
š Adjusted Scores Table
- āPassā: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- āSuccessā: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- āH & Aā: Home or away team
š Titans vs. Ravens (in London)
- Final Score: 16-24
- Adjusted Score: 21-25
The adjusted score is leaning against what I assume is the popular perception of this game ā that the Titans were lucky to have this within one possession at the end of the game. Rather than this invalidating the adjusted scores, I think itās a sign of their utility.
Offenses often feel completely ineffective when they canāt convert third downs, but thatās not really the case. The Titansā overall offensive success rate was only 1.3% lower than the Ravens, but they were 1-for-9 on third downs, including 0-for-4 on third downs with five or fewer yards to go.
The Ravens converted half of their third downs, which was slightly below expectations based on the relatively easier distances to go. It didnāt feel like it, but the Ravens and Titans averaged the exact same yards per play (6.1).
The Ravens also had a +2.6 EPA advantage on special teams and penalties, mostly driven by a recovery of a muffed punt and a 70-yard punt return by Devin Duvernay. The ever-reliable Justin Tucker was also 6-6 on a bunch of shorter field-goal tries.
Neither team derived strong overall offensive value from their 50+% success rates passing the ball. The Titans gave up a ton of value on sacks (-9.3 EPA), and both teams had costly interceptions in relatively good down-distance contexts. The Titans were effective on the ground, but nearly all of that value came on a 63-yard scamper from Derrick Henry.
This is another game for Lamar Jackson where his numbers donāt quite match the impression of his performance ā only because the impression was so positive. The Ravens couldnāt do anything running the ball outside of Jackson scrambles (6.2 expected points lost on non-Jackson runs), but his efficiency was good, not outstanding, on a per-play basis.
Ryan Tannehill was bad by all statistical measures. He was inaccurate, had too many negatives, and wasnāt very efficient when the ball left his hand and wasnāt intercepted. Tannehill left the game with an ankle injury, which could ālingerā if the Titans want to get a longer look at Malik Willis (not sure why) or a first look at Will Levis, their second-round pick.
Levis hasnāt been active so far this season, but he would have two full weeks to prepare for a home game against the Falcons if the Titans decide to make a move.
Iād vote for it, as Tannehill is in the last non-void year of his contract and ranked in the bottom-seven quarterbacks by my Adjusted Efficiency metric going into this week.
š Falcons vs. Commanders
- Final Score: 16-24
- Adjusted Score: 20-18
The Commanders rode enormous advantages on turnovers and late-down (3rd & 4th) conversions to victory in Atlanta. Neither team was good from a success rate perspective, but the Falcons got a lot more out of their positive (and a lot less bad out of their negative) plays.
The Falconsā normally reliable run offense was dormant, only successful on 18% of designed runs (8% for rookie phenom Bijan Robinson).
The Falcons needed Desmond Ridder to win the game with their run offense struggling, and he gave them what they needed outside of three major mistakes. His three interceptions cost the Falcons a combined 39% win probability and 13.8 expected points.
Overall, Ridderās efficiency was only slightly worse than Sam Howellās, but I doubt that will be the impression of their respective performances. Ridder was coming off of, by far, his best game of the season a week ago.
I donāt think this game should trigger a switch at QB to Taylor Heinicke, but the accumulation of evidence points to Ridder not being the guy.
š MNF Shootout!!!
Will Kellen outwit his old boss?
Cowboys vs. Chargers has no shortage of juicy storylines...none more interesting than Kellen Moore's explosive Chargers offense going mano a mano with Mike McCarthy's implosive Dallas offense!!! Will Kellen get the better of his old boss and cover the (insert line) spread?
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Thanks to BetMGM, you can bet on the game without worrying about sweating your first bet (or about finding something to cheer for in the game!).
Speaking of bets...
š¤Ā Geoff Ulrich is betting: Michael Gallup anytime TD (+230)
āGallupās resurgence this year has been impressive and is still going a little under the radar for betting and fantasy purposes.
Heās matched CeeDee Lamb in target share (19%) through five weeks and has a bigger aDOT (10.77) than the Cowboysā number one WR as well. Despite the near-equal match in usage, Gallupās TD odds remain quite longer than Lambās (+235 vs +122) for Week 6, making him the preferred target.
In terms of matchups, this also might be a spot to play Gallup in some bigger tickets (multiple TDs). Despite already having a bye, the Chargers have allowed the fourth most TDs to opposing WRs on the year (6) and will likely have their minds on containing Lamb.
Gallup should be in a prime spot to benefit on Monday Night Football.ā
Just when you think you have this league figured out, the NFL will humble you. The Eagles and Browns entered Week 6 as the last two undefeated squads in the league, and they were both facing backup quarterbacks. Easy pickings, right?
Of course not.
The 49ers lost to P.J. Walker and the Browns, while the mighty Eagles fell to Zach Wilson and the Jets. Itās just more proof that if youāre not ready to play every single week, anyone can beat anyone.
With Sunday in the rearview, letās take our first look at some bets that stand out for Week 7:
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
- Lookahead Spread: Lions +3.0
- Current Spread: Lions +2.5
The Jaguars managed to put the London Curse to bed in Week 6, and now the Ravens will have the opportunity to do the same. Unfortunately, while Jacksonville got a relatively soft matchup vs. the Colts, the Ravens are going to have to deal with the Lions.
Detroit picked up another comfortable win on Sunday, moving them to 5-1 for the year. They did that despite missing their two marquee cornerbacks and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
Overall, itās getting harder and harder to find any real flaws with this squad.
The Lions will take the field as underdogs in Baltimore, and thatās a role theyāve historically been comfortable in. Theyāre 24-15 ATS when getting points under head coach Dan Campbell, including an outright win in their only game as an underdog this season.
On the other side, this is a spot where Lamar Jackson has historically struggled. Heās just 26-32 ATS as a favorite (including playoffs), and heās 11-21 ATS as a home favorite.
The line has already dipped from 3.0 to 2.5, so we donāt necessarily need to risk locking in the Lions now. Even if thereās a slight chance it gets back to three, itās worth risking the number dipping closer to a pickāem.
That said, donāt be surprised if Lions +2.5 is the best number we see all week. Iām happy to play the Lions getting any points in this matchup.
šŖĀ The backdoor is always open against the Patriots. Maxx Crosby crushes the dream for Patsā bettors everywhere.
š¶Ā Oh, you donāt think it can get worse for the Patriots? Guess again. Mac Jonesā record as an underdog is downright scary.
šĀ Fade the public?!?Ā Only if you hate money!
šĀ Everything we learned from Week 6 in the NFL.Ā Watch the film, and get better.
š¤¬Ā Brock Purdy suffered his first career loss, and the haters were out in full force. Jalen Hurts was catching strays.
š Straight off the couch. Justin Pugh living the dream for armchair athletes everywhere.
š¦¶ļø Jake Moody missed a field goal to end the 49ersā undefeated season. Rough week for a family reunion.
šĀ Jets fans are starting to believe again. Hope is one heck of a drug.
š° Looking for more Monday Night Football bets?Ā Weāve got you covered.
The Monday Nighter for Week 6 brings us an appealing aperitif to finish the week and Geoff Ulrich is here to guide you through your bet slip for the gameā¦
The Chargers and Cowboys both enter this game with two losses on the season, with the Chargers coming off an early-season Week 5 bye. Los Angeles has a rest advantage, although itās worth noting that the Cowboys enter this game relatively healthy. Of their starters, LB Leighton Vander Esch looks like the only one who will be out this week.
ā”ļø Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Cowboys -1.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 51.0
- Moneylines: Chargers -125 / Cowboys +105
Itās been a strange start for the Cowboys. They have had multiple games that were essentially layups for any competent squad (an awful Giants team in Week 1, the Jets after losing Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, and an imploding Patriots team in Week 4). In their two real tests, theyāve failed miserably.
Perhaps the game last week against the 49ers wasnāt as bad as the final score suggests, but while their rush defense stepped up to an extent, their pass defense cratered for the second time in two weeks. Allowing Joshua Dobbs to throw for 9.0 yards per attempt and an 80% completion rate is a bad look, and the same issues arose against Brock Purdy (four TD passes, 71% completion rate) in Week 5.
While the Chargers may be without Bosa, the loss of Vander Esch is arguably harder for the Cowboys to absorb. They have a thin LB core to begin with and have already had their issues stopping the run, and Vander Esch is their primary signal caller on defense. The ripples of his loss will be felt everywhere for Dallas.
The Cowboys have been great at bouncing back from losses under Dak Prescott and are 10-1 ATS after a loss the last three seasons. Itās a good record, but you wonder how much of that stems from playing in a weak NFC East at times. Prescott is 25-10 ATS vs. the NFC East for his career but only 33-38-2 ATS vs. the rest of the NFL (per the Action Network).
š° Monday Night Football Best Bet: Chargers +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
As you can probably tell already, Iām leaning the Chargers on this one and have already bet them in a Sunday afternoon/Monday Night teaser with the Buccaneers. If the first part fails, I will probably just play them on the spread as well.
While the Chargers record in close games is always concerning, the Cowboys have struggled mightily with two non-divisional teams on the road and have had trouble clicking on offense this year. They come into this game ranked 19th in Offensive DVOA, with Dak Prescott currently on pace to post career worsts in yards per attempt (6.6) and TD rate (3.1%).
The over on the 51.0 total is also somewhat appealing, but with the current number having already risen significantly from the 46.5 open, the spread is where Iād prefer to stay.
š¤Ā Tony Pollard under 69.5 rushing yards (-114; FanDuel)
- Bet To: 68.5 yards (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.7 carries and 64.7 rushing yards
In general, marquee player props in primetime games feel like they get set at slightly elevated levels thanks to the game's extra attention and the public's desire to bet overs on their favorite players.
Pollardās rushing total is the perfect example of such a prop. His rushing prop at 69.5 yards feels slightly elevated against a Chargers defense that has been much improved this year and allowed just 3.3 yards per carry in Week 4 against Josh Jacobs ā and who is getting James back this week for help.
I like fading the public in primetime games, and Pollardās under will likely be a lonely spot for betting this week. We have him projected for 64.8 in our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life, suggesting there is a small edge to taking his under in addition to being contrarian.
