We might see 33 backup QBs this week…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Hugo Boss:

• QB Injuries: What are these guys worth to the spread?
• Unabated: Weather effects!
• MVP: Someone other than Brock Purdy?
• Quick Hitter: Week 16 bet to HAMMER!
• TNF: Nickell Robey-Coleman bobblehead night!
• It’s 12/21: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

Every week, I publish a best bets article in which I provide notes on the updates in my QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of every starter to his backup.

We have several QB injuries this week. Here are my thoughts on them.

🧠 Trevor Lawrence

As “bad” as Trevor Lawrence has been this year, his 7.0 AY/A is respectable, and it’s not that far off last year’s 7.3 mark. Backup C.J. Beathard is a professional veteran, but he was much better at the beginning of his career with the 49ers (6.4 AY/A) — under HC Kyle Shanahan — than he has been over the past three years with the Jaguars (3.7 AY/A).

With Lawrence (concussion) uncertain to play, I have Beathard as a -4.2 dropoff. 

🤠 C.J. Stroud

I have the downgrade from C.J. Stroud to Case Keenum as only -2.1. My gut says that the dropoff should be steeper, but Keenum has 65 career starts and a career mark of 6.5 AY/A. That’s not great, but it’s livable. He’s an experienced NFL QB.

There’s a chance that Stroud (concussion) will miss another week in the protocol, and the market has shifted against the Texans (-2.5 to +2.5) more than I think is warranted.

⛏️ Kenny Pickett

The Steelers are switching from Mitchell Trubisky to Mason Rudolph as the preferred backup to injured starter Kenny Pickett (ankle). I don’t think it matters much who the team plays at the position — but Rudolph is almost certainly the worst of the three. With a 5.7 AY/A and just 10 NFL starts to his name at the age of 28, he has no ceiling and a basement-level floor. 

I have Rudolph as a -0.9 downgrade on Pickett.

✈️ Trevor Siemian

Last week, injury was added to insult for Zach Wilson (concussion), who exited early for the Jets after completing 36.4% of his passes for a 2.4 AY/A. I have limited respect for Trevor Siemian, but he has 30 starts and a career 6.1 AY/A.

I have him as an ever-so-slight -0.1 downgrade on Wilson — but there’s a real chance he’s the superior QB.

🦶 Will Levis

Will Levis (ankle) is uncertain to suit up, meaning we might see Ryan Tannehill return to the starting lineup for the Titans — and that could be a net positive. Levis has a higher long-term ceiling, but Tannehill has a better short-term floor. He’s a +1.0 upgrade on the rookie.

Check Out Our QB ATS Value Chart!

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Jason Scavone from Unabated looks at the impact of winter weather…

“Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!”

No, we’re not ranking our favorite Christmas songs. (If we were, “Christmas in Hollis” would be WAY higher.) We’re talking about how weather impacts betting on football games. Because ’tis the season for what announcers get unreasonably pumped to call “football weather.”

You want the poster child for weather games? Here you go.

Two years ago in Buffalo, there was snow. There was wind with gusts up to 40 mph. There was… Mac Jones completing 2-of-3 for 19 yards.

But not every game with precipitation or wind will see two teams combine for 70-plus carries. So what’s going on?

First, you have to remember that while weather plays a role in football, it’s not nearly as important as it is in baseball. 

When there’s really wild weather in the forecast, lines can move significantly. But often there’s a huge overreaction. And that leads to inefficiencies you can capitalize on.

Most bettors can’t wait to hammer the under the second they hear there’s going to be a blizzard on gameday, but often the weather is already baked into the line. You can use line histories like those at Unabated to see how much movement there’s been on any given game. 

Remember, too, not all weather affects the game the same way.

• Rain during the game: This will usually lead to more unders. Teams are more hesitant to throw when it’s raining. It’s more of an issue in games on grass versus games on turf.
   
• Rain pregame: It’s almost meaningless in the modern era. Technological advances mean fields drain quicker than they used to, and grounds crews keep them covered until a few hours before kickoff. Unless the game you’re betting is taking place in the ’70s, you can safely ignore pregame rain. If the game you’re betting on is taking place in the ’70s, though, bring us back one of those dorm-room Charlie’s Angels posters with Cheryl Ladd. Rowr.
   
• Falling snow: When the white stuff comes down during the game, it tends to lean toward the under.
   
• Fallen snow: Here’s the curve (snow)ball. If there’s accumulated snow on the field, the game leans over. The offense is at an advantage running routes in the snow, and it’s more challenging for the defense to get pressure on the QB.
   
• Wind: This depends on the stadium. More modern stadiums (when they don’t have retractable roofs) are built with prevailing winds in mind. A stadium that’s susceptible to crosswinds will see the most significant impact on scoring. Straight winds will affect the kicking game and be a factor in the deep passing game. If there’s a QB with a big arm throwing with the wind at his back, look to play relevant overs in those two quarters.

Weather isn’t something you can use to hammer unders blindly. Consider what type of weather is happening, whether it’s already reflected in the line, and how it’s expected to impact the game. Then spin Run-DMC one more time for good measure and get your bet down.

Check Out the Unabated Odds Page!

Stars vs. Canucks Over 6.5 Goals (-105, DraftKings)

Dallas is down starting netminder Jake Oettinger, and the last eight games the Stars have played have all gone over tonight’s 6.5 total. On the season the team is now 11-4 to the over in home games. 

As for the Canucks, they’ve scored four or more goals in five of their past six games and are 11-4-2 to the over in away contests. This line may get shorter but is playable up to -120.

🤑 Paydirt = payday: TNF TD bet…

📺 Line moves, key numbers, and teasers. How to attack Week 16.

🐬 I guess he makes a difference: The Dolphins defense with All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey.

👓 Looking ahead to Week 18: The games that will still mean something.

✍️ Bills, Broncos, Battlestar Galactica. Freedman’s best bets for Week 16.

🏆 From someone other than Freedman: Brock Purdy MVP

🏀 Kobe Bryant vs. Smush Parker: Explained, years later…

☠️ At whatever number? Fade the Raiders after they scored 60-plus points.

💰 Free bets that WIN? Sounds too good to be true? +11.3 units over the past 30 days says otherwise.

🤔 49ers No. 1, Ravens No. 2… but who’s No. 3 in the updated Massey-Peabody Power Ratings?

Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 16 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Hitman…

From Hitman: I expect C.J. Stroud to miss this game and for this line to move to -3 when it becomes official. The Texans are a bottom-five team with Case Keenum under center. The Browns defense has a big matchup advantage against this Texans offense with Keenum, while this bad Houston defense won’t be able to keep the Texans in the game.

Thursday’s game between the Saints and Rams has massive postseason implications in the wipe-open NFC. The winner increases their playoff probability to at least 70%, while the loser dips to 25% or worse. Matt LaMarca breaks down his top picks for this NFC showdown.

👍 Best Bet: Saints +4.5 (-115, FanDuel)

This line is at +4 across most of the industry, but a +4.5 has popped on FanDuel. The Rams are getting the vast majority of the betting action in this contest — 94% of the bets and 85% of the dollars per Action Network — so the other sportsbooks could follow suit.

The Saints are the better defensive team in this matchup, and the gap between the two offenses isn’t all that stark. It should be noted that the Saints have played one of the easiest schedules in football, but they’ve held their own against basically everyone this season. Only one of their seven losses has come by double-digits, and that was against the Buccaneers back in Week 4.

Matthew Stafford also has a bit of a dubious track record as a favorite. He’s 23-34 ATS for his career when laying more than a field goal, including 9-11 ATS as a member of the Rams. He has gone 3-1 in that split this season, but those wins have come against the Cardinals, Commanders, and Joe Flacco-led Browns. I would argue that this Saints squad is much better than all those teams.

The Saints have burned me multiple times this season, but I’m going back to the well with them one more time. The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have the Saints as slightly better than the Rams on a neutral field, so getting more than a field goal in this spot is generous.

⬆️ Top Prop: Kyren Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)

Williams has come out of nowhere to become one of the most productive backs in football. He’s been most potent on the ground this season, but the Rams have gotten him increasingly involved in the passing attack since he returned from injury. He’s been targeted on at least 22% of his routes run in three of his past four contests, and he had a season-high 23% target share in his most recent contest.

Williams caught five balls for just three yards in that game, but the volume is a major plus for his outlook moving forward. He’s averaged three catches and nearly 20 yards per game as a receiver this season, and with his role increasing he could improve on those numbers vs. the Saints.

🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+1248, FanDuel)

• Saints ML
• Alvin Kamara anytime touchdown
• Derek Carr under 227.5 passing yards
• Kyren Williams over 18.5 receiving yards

This week, I’m looking at an SGP that focuses on what a Saints victory would look like. That obviously starts with taking the Saints on the moneyline.

After that, I’m looking for an anytime touchdown for Kamara — he’s scored three times in his past three games — and the under on Carr’s passing yards prop. If the Saints have their way, I assume they’d like to employ another run-heavy game script.

Finally, I’m going to add in the over on Williams’ receiving prop. That number seems too low to begin with, and if the Rams are trailing he could be even busier than usual catching passes.

You Want More TNF Bets? We’ve Got’ Em!