NFL Week 2: The rare sequel that surpasses the original…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• 0-2 Teams: They still have their uses.
• Cowboys: 70-10 seems pretty, pretty, pretty good.
• Sean McVay: Hero! … or villain?
• MNF (x2): Divisional matchups, road dogs…
• It’s 9/18. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

Week 2! It was football that didn’t make our eyes bleed. And it was a decent week for sports betting.

Now that we’re through two weeks of the regular season (minus two games tonight), here are the teams that are 2-0 (with their point differentials).

• Cowboys (+60)
• 49ers (+30)
• Ravens (+19)
• Falcons (+15)
• Buccaneers (+13)
• Eagles (+11)
• Dolphins (+9)
• Commanders (+6)

And these teams are 0-2.

• Broncos (-3)
• Chargers (-5)
• Cardinals (-7)
• Vikings (-9)
• Patriots (-12)
• Bengals (-24)
• Texans (-27)
• Bears (-28)

In case you’re not aware of the historical statistics, 2-0 teams have made the playoffs at a 63.8% clip since the league expanded to 12 postseason teams in 1990.

And now, with 14 teams in the playoffs, a 2-0 record probably means something close to a two-thirds shot to make the postseason.

On the flipside, only 11.5% of 0-2 teams have made the playoffs since 1990. Maybe that number will go up to 15-18% now with 14 postseason teams — but the odds of advancing past the regular season are painfully low if a team heads into Week 3 with consecutive losses.

Even this early in the season, a sizable lead or deficit can shape the rest of the campaign. And now, with multiple games played, team performance to date is close to a reasonable representation of reality: Not all 2-0 teams are above average, and not all 0-2 teams are below average — but most of them are.

There are clear ways to utilize this information in the futures markets, but here are some notes that might inform how we approach these teams in Week 3.

✅ Two-Loss Teams in Week 3

Over the past 20 years, 0-2 teams have been worthy bounceback bets, going 78-61-4 ATS (9.0% ROI) and 62-78-2 ML (6.0% ROI, per Action Network).

If Week 2 is all about overreaction, then Week 3 might be about overconfidence: The market is too certain that 0-2 teams are bad.

All other types of teams (2-0, 1-1, 1-0-1, and 0-1-1) have been unprofitable in Week 3 both ATS and ML.

But 0-2 teams, with their winless nastiness and postseason-less futures, have been stone-cold moneymakers, especially 0-2 underdogs.

• ATS: 59-42-2 (13.0% ROI)
• ML: 36-65-1 (8.8% ROI)

The same goes for 0-2 teams with no ATS wins.

• ATS: 59-38-1 (18.6% ROI)
• ML: 44-53-1 (11.9% ROI)

And 0-2 teams with negative turnover differentials.

• ATS: 29-17-1 (21.1% ROI)
• ML: 22-22-2 (38.3% ROI)

And what about 0-2 teams that hit the trifecta as 1) underdogs with 2) no ATS wins and 3) negative turnover differentials?

• ATS: 15-5 (44.6% ROI)
• ML: 11-9 (81.1% ROI)

I hope you own your home outright — because we’re about to mortgage that thang, amirite?

❌ Two-Win Teams in Week 3

You probably know where this is going. The long-term trends against 2-0 teams aren’t as strong as the tendencies for 0-2 teams — that makes sense to me, by the way — but the patterns are easy enough to spot.

Over the past two decades, 2-0 teams have been profitable to fade in Week 3, especially as favorites.

• ATS: 43-53-2 (8.2% ROI for faders)
• ML: 60-37 (6.1% ROI for faders)

Obviously, we’re not gonna mortgage your house. But maybe we’ll sell your car?

Note: I’m joking. Always bet responsibly.

✍️ Approach to Week 3

In giving this information, I’m not saying that you should blindly bet on 0-2 teams and against 2-0 teams. But I do like to keep long-term trends like these in mind when analyzing games.

If you find that you’re going against logical historical patterns in a supermajority of your spread bets, you might want to evaluate your process — or at least be able to identify why you believe the weight of a reasonable trend is counterbalanced by other factors.

If you’re aware of history, you’re likelier to be able to predict when it will repeat itself — or maybe write itself anew.

While we still have two Monday Night Football games to look forward to, Week 3 lines are already live, so Matt LaMarca highlights a couple of teams the market has adjusted.

Two down, 16 to go. The regular season always seems to fly by, and we’re already done with the first two Sundays. I’m not trying to depress you, but it’s the truth.

Fortunately, that still leaves us plenty of time to look at value in the betting market.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest sportsbook adjustments heading into Week 3.

🤠 The Cowboys are a Wagon

It’s hard to look much more impressive than the Cowboys have to start the year. They dismantled the Giants 40-0 on the road in Week 1 — a playoff squad from 2022 — and they followed that up with a 20-point victory over the Jets. Their average margin of victory now sits at 30 points, which is easily the top mark in football.

When the futures market reopens, it wouldn’t shock me if they’ve overtaken the Eagles as the favorites to win the NFC East.

Of course, the Cowboys haven’t exactly faced a who’s who of competition. The Giants may have been a playoff team last season, but they’re not in the same ballpark as the Cowboys from a talent perspective.

The Jets have QB Zach Wilson starting. I don’t need to tell you how that went:

It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys fare when the competition level gets cranked up a bit, but that’s not going to happen in Week 3. They’ll head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals, who are widely considered the worst team in football.

The look-ahead line on this game was Cowboys -7.0, but that is long in the past. This line is well into double digits, settling at -12.5 at some locations.

On paper, that’s a ton of points. If we’re giving the Cardinals 1.5 points for home-field advantage, it suggests that the Cowboys are 14 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field.

That feels like it’s probably too much, but does anyone have the guts to back QB Joshua Dobbs against this pass rush? I know I don’t.

The public will certainly be on the Cowboys in this matchup, regardless of how high the line gets. If the sharps don’t show any interest in the Cardinals, this spread could easily eclipse two touchdowns.

🚑 Concern over Burrow in Cincinnati?

The Rams converted one of the most unreal backdoor covers in recent times on Sunday, kicking a field goal as time expired to drop the margin from 10 to seven:

That was … an interesting decision to say the least.

Regardless, the cover brings the Rams to 2-0 against the spread for the year. QB Matthew Stafford wasn’t quite as impressive as he was in Week 1, tossing two interceptions, but he continues to remind everyone that he’s an excellent quarterback when healthy. Even without WR Cooper Kupp, the Rams offense has had no trouble moving the ball against the Seahawks and 49ers.

Will the public start to show the Rams some love in the betting market? It’s possible.

That said, the big story in this matchup revolves around the Bengals. Not only have they struggled to move the ball this season, but there are also some concerns about the health of their quarterback.

Joe Burrow admitted that he tweaked his calf against the Ravens, creating some doubt about his availability in Week 3:

This has unsurprisingly had a huge impact on the spread.

This number is down to Bengals -3.5 across the industry, which creates a unique dilemma for bettors.

If he plays, this number will likely revert back to where it was at opening. That would make the Bengals roughly seven-point favorites.

If Burrow is out, this number will continue to move towards the Rams. Burrow is probably worth at least six points to the spread, making this number much closer to a pick‘em.

So, how should you approach this?

Unfortunately, if you didn’t grab the Rams at +6.5, I think you’re too late. There’s not a ton of value with the current number, even if Burrow ultimately sits.

At this point, we’re going to have to play the waiting game. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

More Early Week 3 Lines

💎 A No Sweat Bet for Tonight's Doubleheader!

Two Games on Monday Night? In This Economy?

We've got double the football tonight! The Saints take on the Panthers and then the Browns face off against the Steelers in a rare Monday Night Doubleheader!

With 2 games to enjoy, it's only right that you prioritize getting in on the action with BetMGM.

With BetMGM's First Bet Offer, you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.

How? It's simple:

• Sign up for a new BetMGM account
• Make your initial deposit
• Place your first bet

Thanks to BetMGM, you can bet on the game without worrying about sweating your first bet.

Speaking of first bets, our friend Rob from Hammer Betting Network is here with some insight…

🏈 Rob is Betting: Panthers +3 (-110)

“I don't believe the Saints are deserving of this price tag off of a game where they eked out a victory with Titans QB Ryan Tannehill missing 2 TD throws and a Titans defensive TD incorrectly being blown dead.

Saints QB Derek Carr has historically struggled in outdoor games away from home, where his EPA and success rate numbers take a MASSIVE hit. He will be facing relentless pressure from this Panthers defensive front, which is more than capable of dominating a weak Saints offensive line.

While I have concerns about the Panthers’ offense, this price is too good to pass up.”

PLACE YOUR BETS

Looking for more MNF action?! Read on for a complete betting breakdown of tonight’s double-header…

🚪 Don’t google the phrase “Sean McVay backdoor.” He called out the kicking unit and kicked Niners bettors in the…yeah…

🐎 Maybe next time don’t blow a 21-3 lead? Can’t always blame a no-call…

🔒 It’s only “The Gambler’s Fallacy” if you lose: Seahawks QB Drew Lock proves that tails never fails… twice in a row.

⛳️ This is almost cool enough to make me want to play golf. Finally — years after Back to the Future Part II — a hovercraft!

🐏 Cheap shots aren’t enough to win meaningful games in college football. Colorado State played scared against Coach Prime and lost. 

🚶 Maybe the best article I’ve read over the past few days: When to fight for every dollar and when to walk away.

🥇 NFL team tiers based on two weeks of performance data. There’s one clear team at the top, and it terrifies me.

⚡️ It seems like the offense isn’t the problem, right? The Chargers continue to do what no other team has done before.

🐬 The real owner of the New England Patriots: Five games, five wins, five ATS covers.

🦶 I guess kickers really are people too! FanDuel just paid out $20M … on a promotional kicking parlay!

Today we are blessed with a Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring Saints at Panthers and Browns at Steelers. Geoff Ulrich is here to break down the first game from a betting angle.

For info on Browns at Steelers, check out our Week 2 Game Hub.

Doubleheader alert!

This Monday we’ll have two games to watch — simultaneously, for parts of the night — as the Saints visit the Panthers (7:15 ET) and the Browns visit the Steelers (8:15 ET).

Both of these games feature 1-0 teams visiting 0-1 teams in divisional matchups. The lines on both are also within 3.0 points on the spread and have been all week. We MIGHT have a couple of closely fought, low-scoring divisional games on tap for the second MNF slate of the season.

It’s the NFL, though, and if the script says 30-28 OT (x2) then we’ll just roll with it…

We break down the first of the two games below.

⚜️ New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Saints -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

Total: 39.5

Moneylines: Saints -155 / Panthers +130

The Saints were able to eke out a close game against the Titans in week 1. QB Derek Carr (305-1-1) posted the sixth-best EPA per play (0.198) of any Week 1 quarterback and had a good rapport with his receivers, including a healthy WR Michael Thomas (5-61). The Panthers lost their best corner this week in Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR) so if Carr has time to sit in the pocket he could do some damage through the air.

On the negative side, the Saints’ offensive line allowed four sacks and their running game was almost nonexistent. They’ll face another stiff test against a Panther defensive line that got 14 pressures in Week 1.

For Carolina, it’s concerning that QB Bryce Young (146-1-2) struggled against a low-pressure defense like Atlanta because the Saints are likely to bring far more pressure, and also picked off a conservative quarterback in Ryan Tannehill three times in Week 1.

It does look like Carolina will get WR DJ Chark (hamstring, questionable) back for this game, as he practiced in full on Friday, and that could help Young’s efficiency on downfield throws. He averaged just 3.34 yards per attempt in Week 1.

New Orleans held RB Derrick Henry to just 63 yards (4.2 YPC) in Week 1, but Carolina was able to run the ball well in their Week 1 loss. They may be able to neutralize the Saints advantage in the secondary with RBs Miles Sanders (18-72, 4-26) and Chuba Hubbard (9-60, 2-9).

I took the Saints on the week 2 lookahead line at -1.0 before the season started but at -3.0 I understand the move towards the Panthers. If Carolina can just avoid turnovers (easier said than done) their defense is capable of keeping this game tight.

From a player prop perspective, I do like this spot for the Saints receivers.

Thomas led the team in route rate (92%) in Week 1, and also had three red zone targets, which also led the team.

Despite those stats, Thomas’ anytime TD odds (+250 on BetMGM) are far bigger than WR Chris Olave’s (+190). Given how poor the Panthers offense is, I’d also recommend that whoever you decide to target on New Orleans you ladder bet in some respect with a first-team TD scorer or first TD scorer (Thomas is +1300 on BetMGM to be the first TD scorer of the game).

From the Carolina side of things, if you like the Panthers then targeting Sanders’ rushing yards over (64.5 O/U, BetMGM) and anytime TD props (+175, BetMGM) in a same-game parlay WITH the Panthers +3.0 has good correlation.

MNF Bets for CLE @ PIT and more!