⛔️ The Market is WRONG!
"Say hello to my little friend."
A fictional allegorical character, an Ivy League finance professor from the 1930s, and a primetime game that only a degenerate would watch…
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Mr. Market: Teams we like/dislike… relatively speaking…
- The NFL Week: When is the best time to place bets?
- QUICK HITTER: A bet from our friends at Hammer Betting Network
- Props That Pop: Rushing unders…
- TNF: Commanders vs. Bears, exciting!
- It’s 10/5: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
In the Week 4 Thursday Betting Life newsletter, I highlighted the teams that have changed the most in my power ratings since the season started.
And in the Week 2 Thursday Betting Life newsletter, I discussed the general utility of power ratings and the specific value of market-based power ratings, such as those provided by Mike Beuoy at Inpredictable and Ben Baldwin on social media.
In this issue of the newsletter, I want to take the opportunity to compare my power ratings with those implied by the current market and highlight the largest divergences between the two.
👋 Introducing … “Mr. Market”
Benjamin Graham was an influential economist, professor, and investor who taught Warren Buffett at Columbia and wrote two foundational investing books: Security Analysis (1934) and The Intelligent Investor (1949).
In the latter book, Graham introduced a little friend, the allegorical character of “Mr. Market,” a temperamental and often irrational investor who gets a lot right in the long term but a fair number of trades wrong in the short term.
Although Graham was thinking primarily of stocks when he created Mr. Market, the character is applicable to many markets overall, even the sports betting market.
While the NFL market tends toward efficiency, it is not without opportunity for enterprising investors: At times, the market can be wrong.
In comparing my power ratings with those derived from the market, I’m hoping to identify teams I’m too high and low on -- but also teams that the market has mispriced.
⬇️ Teams I’m Low on Relative to Mr. Market
- 49ers: -2.75
- Cowboys: -1.5
- Browns: -1.5
- Packers: -1.45
- Bills: -1.3
⚒️ 49ers (-2.75)
- Market Rating: +7
- My Rating: +4.25
I’m probably too low on the 49ers overall. They are yet to score fewer than 30 points in a game this year and have yet to win by less than seven points. They’re undeniably a top-six team.
But they’ve had an easy schedule so far (Steelers, Rams, Giants, and Cardinals), and on defense, they’re exploitable in the running game (No. 28 in rush EPA & No. 29 in rush SR, per RBs Don’t Matter).
If they beat the Cowboys and cover the -3.5 spread this week, they’ll get a significant boost in my power ratings in advance of Week 6.
🤠 Cowboys (-1.5)
- Market Rating: +5.5
- My Rating: +4
Like the 49ers, the Cowboys have had an easy schedule (Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots). Unlike the 49ers, they’ve lost one of their games … and they have HC Mike McCarthy operating as the resident offensive genius.
Their performance against the 49ers this week will count for a lot.
🐶 Browns (-1.5)
- Market Rating: +2
- My Rating: +0.5
QB Deshaun Watson is only No. 21 in composite EPA + CPOE, and RB Nick Chubb (knee, IR) is out for the year.
They have a great defense (No. 1 in EPA & SR), but that can carry a team only so far.
🧀 Packers (-1.45)
- Market Rating: -0.3
- My Rating: -1.75
QB Jordan Love is a respectable No. 14 in AY/A and No. 18 in EPA + CPOE, but the Packers are without LT David Bakhtiari (knee, IR), and they have only one win this year against a QB who started and finished the game … and that was against the Bears and QB Justin Fields.
Not ideal.
🧐 Bills (-1.3)
- Market Rating: +7.3
- My Rating: +6
After their big Week 4 win against the Dolphins, the Bills are the No. 1 team in the market — and I just can’t get there yet.
The Bills are great, but given what we know about the long-term dominance of the Chiefs with HC Andy Reid, QB Patrick Mahomes, and TE Travis Kelce, I can’t put the Bills above them just yet.
⬆️ Teams I’m High on Relative to Mr. Market
- Steelers: +2.55
- Giants: +2.55
- Bengals: +1.95
- Patriots: +1.9
- Bears: +1.8
⚒️ Steelers (+2.55)
- Market Rating: -2.3
- My Rating: +0.25
HC Mike Tomlin is the No. 3 coach in our Fantasy Life Unit Rankings, and his teams often play tough, especially as underdogs (55-31-4 ATS, 24.2% ROI), in division (56-42-4 ATS, 11.6% ROI), and off a loss (53-40 ATS, 12.1% ROI per Action Network).
Somehow, Tomlin’s teams tend to find a way. I’m probably too high on the Steelers, but I also think the market is moving away too quickly from the Steelers given what we know about Tomlin’s ability to make his teams competitive.
💪 Giants (+2.55)
- Market Rating: -4.3
- My Rating: -1.75
When the season opened, I had the Giants rated at +0, so it’s not as if I haven’t moved them down the board — but the market has downgraded them far faster.
Still, they have recently been without LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and RB Saquon Barkley (ankle). And QB Daniel Jones is 27-19 ATS (12.9% ROI) as an underdog.
If they’re terrible as double-digit underdogs against the Dolphins this week, I’ll aggressively move them down the ratings, but I don’t want to overreact to four bad games.
🐯 Bengals (+1.95)
- Market Rating: +0.3
- My Rating: +2.25
I’ve moved the Bengals down -2.5 points since the season started — only the Jets (-7) have seen a bigger decline since Week 1 — but I’m still lagging the market.
QB Joe Burrow is dead last (No. 34) in EPA + CPOE … but, even injured, he can’t continue to be the worst passer in the league, right?
🍂 Patriots (+1.9)
- Market Rating: -1.9
- My Rating: +0
The Patriots have a top-12 defense (No. 8 in SR, No. 12 in EPA) and should still be good enough without EDGE Matthew Judon (bicep) and CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), especially since they just traded for CB J.C. Jackson, who was a Pro Bowler with a league-high 23 passes defended on the Patriots in 2021.
As for the offense … it’s not good. But it seems likely to improve as QB Mac Jones and OC Bill O’Brien become more familiar with each other.
🐻 Bears (+1.8)
- Market Rating: -6.3
- My Rating: -4.5
The Bears — like the Bengals — I’ve moved down -2.5 points since the season started, and they’re now my No. 32 team.
But we saw what QB Justin Fields was capable of last year, and last week he looked like a potential difference-making talent (335 yards, four TDs passing).
I’m comfortable having the Bears at No. 32, but I’m not ready yet to say that they’re -6 points worse than an average team. If they’re terrible tonight against the Commanders, I’ll continue to downgrade them.
It’s five minutes until kickoff on Sunday. All your pregame action for the early slate is locked. Nothing to do but kick back and watch it all play out. For about a minute or two. Then it’s time to start planning your day-by-day NFL betting strategy.
Not all bets are created equal, and neither are all times to bet. The football week has its own rhythms and beats. You need to be familiar with them if you want to make the best bets you can make depending on where you are in the weekly cycle.
In other words, you don’t want to bet teasers on a Tuesday or bet off injury information on a Wednesday. Here’s how to break it down.
👐 Openers
Once upon a time, the Stardust in Las Vegas was the first word in football betting.
The casino would hang openers for every game on Sunday afternoon and set the tone for the betting week nationwide. It was such a big deal it got its own show on local stations.
Now, though, openers aren’t as important as they used to be. Sportsbooks put out lookahead lines for every game of the season by July.
In the college ranks, Circa posts its lines at 2 p.m. ET on Sundays. This is widely considered the sharp open, with other books moving their numbers either in reaction to Circa or to all the sharp money flowing in on their lines.
So, if we’re not sweating openers, that must mean Monday is the start of our NFL workweek, right? Not exactly.
🗓️ Sunday
You should actually be starting your work on next week’s bets on Sundays.
It all starts with postgame news. Was that limping wide receiver as banged up as he looked? Was the starting quarterback’s third-quarter trip to the tent precautionary, or will it hold him out of practice?
Postgame press conferences might not give you the complete picture on injuries, but some coaches will tip their hand here.
Quarterbacks have the most impact on the line, to the point where if you were going to focus exclusively on QB injuries and ignore every other player’s impact you’d still be in the ballpark.
When injuries pile up at a position group, though, you might begin to have something actionable. If, for example, three offensive linemen are all out, that could have a meaningful impact on the true price of a game.
Mostly, though, if you’re going to use that information to inform your bets for the week, be careful not to overestimate the impact injuries will have on the next game. You won’t have a clearer sense of what personnel will be available the following Sunday until injury reports come out on Thursday.
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Speaking of first bets...
💰 Geoff is betting: Logan Thomas Anytime TD (+250, BetMGM)
"Logan Thomas returned last week and had a strong 77% route participation rate against Philadelphia. He’s already connected for a TD with Sam Howell on the season – against another bad defense in Denver – and with both Curtis Samuel (quad) and Jahan Dotson (ankle) banged up could easily step up into a bigger role for Week 5.
The Commanders’ offense tends to spread the ball in the passing game (five different players have caught four or more passes this year) so looking to target whichever primary receivers for Washington have the biggest odds for an anytime TD makes sense against the Bears (who allow 2.5 passing TDs per game)."
Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 4 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Bringing you one of the latest from Hitman…
🤏 For the people who like betting on quarter and half spreads: The Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers, oh my!
❓ So, maybe the problem’s Desmond Ridder? These numbers are…Not great, Bob!
🤯 Jets DOMINATION and a bold MVP prediction?! Best Bets for Week 5.
💔 Never mind what I wrote about the Steelers in the intro, I take it all back: Their offense is BROKEN!
🏃♂️ Looking at the props that pop: All Freedman needs is more of an excuse to take rushing unders…
🍔 Not that there’s anything wrong with flipping burgers. I feel personally seen.
💰 99% of the money is on the OVER for this TNF rushing prop. He’s one of my fantasy favorites … so what could go wrong?
🚨 Thursday Night Football trend alert! So coming into a short week after playing OT is NOT good?!…
Week 5 kicks off TONIGHT with a SUPER EXCITING NFC matchup between the Commanders and Bears. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…
The NFL is offering up a classic Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5. I think they purposely try to make those games as bad as possible just to prove how much of a hold they have over us. It’s like a toxic relationship, and frankly, they’re winning.
This Thursday, the 0-4 Bears will travel to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders. Washington has shown some signs of promise this season, but the Bears have been a soap opera. They’ve shown more fight off the field than on it, and they’re currently at or near the bottom of most power ratings.
Can the Bears get on the board for the first time since Elon Musk bought Twitter, or will the Commanders hand them another convincing loss? Let’s dive in.
🧸 Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Total: 44.5
- Moneylines: Bears +200/Commanders -250
The line movement in this game has been very interesting. The Commanders were initially listed as 1.5-point favorites when this number first came out, but the Bears have obviously failed to live up to expectations. That saw this number get as high as Commanders -7.0 at certain locations.
However, there’s been some sharp buyback since then. This number has steadily crept back in Chicago’s favor, with the current line settling at Commanders -5.5 on BetMGM. The public, unsurprisingly, wants nothing to do with the Bears — they’ve received just 37% of the spread bets per the Action Network — but they have a slight edge in terms of betting dollars.
Overall, the sharps clearly see something they like with the Bears in this matchup.
One thing is certain: it has nothing to do with the team’s defense.
They’ve been abysmal on that side of the ball this season, ranking 28th in yards per game, 31st in points, and 31st in EPA/play. They’ve surrendered at least 27 points in all four contests, with three of their opponents getting to at least 31.
However, the offense did show signs of life in Week 4. The Bears blew a commanding 21-point second-half lead, but the fact that they established one to begin with is a positive sign. They also racked up 471 yards of total offense, outgaining the Broncos by 160 yards.
In short, you can make a good case that the Bears were the better team last week; they just didn’t win.
That said, doing it against the Broncos – the only team with arguably a worse defense than the Bears – is one thing. Doing it against the Commanders is a different story.
Washington has been competitive for most of the season. They were blown out by the Bills in Week 3, but they took the Eagles to overtime at home in Week 4. Philly hasn’t been the same juggernaut this year that they were in 2022, but it’s still an impressive result.
The Commanders’ defense has been below average, but they can still get after the quarterback. They have 13 sacks through the first four weeks, tied for the seventh-best mark in football. Their offense has been roughly league-average, with Sam Howell holding his own in his first year as a starter.
While the public will give the Commanders credit for their showing vs. the Eagles, it’s important to remember what the team did earlier as well. Chicago thoroughly outplayed Denver, but the Commanders were outgained by the Broncos and escaped with a two-point comeback win. They also played a tight contest at home against the Cardinals, resulting in another close victory.
Ultimately, this team may not be a disaster, but they’re not particularly good either.
It’s easy to write the Bears off at this point, but I think this is probably too many points. I would’ve preferred to grab them at +7.0 when this line first came out on Sunday, but I think Chicago is the right side. Don’t be surprised if they pick up their first win of the season.