The Falcons need a few more decades before making any rash decisions with Arthur Smith…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:

• The Texans are headed to the playoffs
• Morning Download: A WR returns when he’s needed most.
• Is today Belichick’s last day in New England?
• Bets from the Group Chat: Ladder up a Lion.
• It’s 1/7. Take it away Peter Overzet…

The final day of the regular season has arrived.

And while most fantasy leagues are in the books, the NFL playoff picture still has a lot of moving parts. There are only four teams who are fully locked into a specific seed heading into today’s games.

Yesterday, the Houston Texans punched their ticket to the dance with a 23-19 win over the Indianapolis Colts, who made the bizarre decision to take their star RB off the field for their final play of the season.

One year ago the Texans’ victory over the Colts caused them to drop from the No. 1 to the No 2. pick. A year later, that pick—C.J. Stroud—threw for 264 yards and 2 TDs while eliminating the Colts from playoff contention.

The Steelers also won yesterday, but their spot in the playoffs is not secured. They’ll need one of two things to go their way:

Jacksonville Jaguars lose to Tennessee Titans OR

Buffalo Bills lose to Miami Dolphins

Whether you’re looking to make some bets or play DFS today, we got you covered. Read on for the overnight news and some bets from the group chat.

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 18

Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Christian Kirk, Trevor Lawrence and two key Dolphins.

For everything else you need for Week 6—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.

If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...

✍️ Christian Kirk In, Trevor Lawrence Questionable

There’s good news and bad news for the Jaguars’ offense in a must-win game vs. the Titans.

Let’s start with the good. Christian Kirk has been activated from the IR and will officially suit up. He’s essentially missed the past five games for the Jaguars, and the team is just 1-4 over that stretch. His return gives the pass-catching corps a significant boost, regardless of who is at quarterback.

Speaking of which, Lawrence missed last week’s game vs. the Panthers, and he’s officially questionable vs. the Titans. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that Lawrence wants to play, and it’s hard to keep your franchise QB on the sidelines with your season on the line.

Still, I’d argue that playing a banged-up Lawrence is a downgrade over a healthy C.J. Beathard. Lawrence averaged just 4.98 adjusted yards per attempt in his previous three contests, while Beathard was at 7.42 last week. Getting back Kirk will help, but it’s very possible that Lawrence just isn’t the same player that he was to start the year.

The sharps have been all over the Titans this week in a classic Mike Vrabel underdog spot. If they do go with Lawrence – something I fully expect to happen – it’s hard to be optimistic about any of the Jags’ pass-catchers for fantasy purposes.

🐬 Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert Expected to Sit

The Dolphins will square off against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, with the winner securing the AFC East crown and No. 2 seed in the conference. Unfortunately, Miami is expected to be without two of their top guns offensively. Waddle and Mostert both missed last week’s contest vs. the Dolphins, and NFL Networks Tom Pelissero reports they’re expected to sit again.

With both players out last week, the Dolphins’ offense looked stagnant against an excellent Ravens’ D. The Bills are another tough matchup, so it’s possible that they could struggle again.

Tyreek Hill should command a solid workload as the team’s clear top receiver, while De’Von Achane becomes an RB1 for fantasy purposes. That said, there’s always a chance the Dolphins pull the plug if this game gets away from them early, with Miami already clinching a spot in the playoffs.

🤝 C.J. Stroud Delivers

This isn’t something I’d normally serve up in the Morning Download, but it’s a slow news day. Sue me.

The Texans won in Week 18 for the second straight season. Last year, it caused them to lose the No. 1 pick in the draft. This year, it sent them to the postseason.

The big difference? Stroud, the man the Texans had to “settle” for at No. 2. Who knows if the Texans would’ve still taken Stroud at No. 1, but it’s all moot now: the team officially has a franchise quarterback.

The Texans will likely be headed for an early exit in January, but this is a young team with a rookie quarterback and head coach. The future is bright, and for one night, the fanbase got a sneak peek of what’s to come.

📺 Fantasy Life on LG Channels: LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!

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When: TODAY at 11:00 am EST

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Watch Today!

✈️ The latest on Bill Belichick. Is today his last day in New England?

💸 Joe Flacco won’t play today. But he’ll still get his bonus.

💰 What better way to cap off the regular season than with winning bets? Oh yeah, they’re also free.

🌶️ The Buffalo Wild Wings Eliminator League claims another victim. Get this man more ice cream.

🤯 The team who desperately tried to get Anthony Richardson. Wow.

🔍 It’s like a personal assistant for prop betting. We’ll find the best lines for you.

📺 Underdog Pick’em 101…with some plays to target for Sunday Night Football.

🔮 2024 Draft Pick scenarios. Lots at stake today.

🤝 Wrap up the season with winners. TD bets for Week 18.

🍄 22 Man Rosters…for Mario Football.

Welcome to Week 18 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.

The group chat’s three-way parlay record moved to 5-8 on the year (+15.68 units) after we went 2-1 on our picks in Week 17. 

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay). 

1️⃣ Mark Drumheller likes: Falcons TT under 19.5 (-105, BetMGM) 

• Play to: -115

As Mark explains, the Saints-Falcons game has the right recipe to end as a boring, low-scoring affair.

“The Atlanta savior (Taylor Heinicke) went 19-30 and 3 picks last week against a decent Chicago defense and I'm betting we see more of that against a Saints defense that ranks Top 5 in both EPA per play and rushing success rate allowed.”

2️⃣ Matt LaMarca likes: Michigan -4.5 (-105, BetMGM)

• Play to: 4.5 (-115)

With the College Football National Championship kicking off tomorrow, it’s only fitting to include it as a leg in our parlay.

From LaMarca himself: 

“Michigan has been a top-10 team on both sides of the ball, and they're arguably the best defense in the country. Washington's offense has yet to face a unit like this, and if they can't score 30+, I don't think they have a chance to cover.”

3️⃣ Geoff Ulrich likes: Justin Fields over 27.5 pass attempts (-115, BetMGM) 

• Projection: 31
• Play to: 28.5 (-115)

The Bears offensive rush rate in 2023 is at 48% (3rd highest) which is a full 8% lower than it was in 2022 (56%) when the Bears had the highest rush rate in the league. 

Fields has now gone over this total in four of his last five starts and faces a Packers team whose offense has been humming of late. 

🤝 Putting it all together: +595, BetMGM SGP

• Falcons TT under 19.5 (-105)
• Justin Fields over 26.5 pass attempts (-128)
• Michigan -4.5 (-105)

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!

📈 Week 18 Ladder Plays 

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones. 

The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well. 

🦁 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards - Lions (BetMGM) 

• 75+ rush yards (+188) 
• 80+ rush yards + anytime TD (+380)
• 100+ rush yards (+500) 

Gibbs’ odds to go for 100+ rush yards (+500) have him sitting with a 16.6% implied probability, but he has gone for 100 yards rushing in two of his last nine games (22% hit rate). Further, if we add a TD prop in with an 80+ yard bet in the same game parlay feature we can get solid +380 odds that he hits both. Gibbs has nine TDs in his last 10 games and scored twice against Minnesota in Week 16. 

Giving Gibbs the ball this week not only keeps Jared Goff from getting hit but it also gives Gibbs a shot at hitting 1000 rushing yards for the season, a total he’s 85 yards away from. 

I like playing for the upside and “laddering up” on Gibbs as a rusher in Week 18.

MORE Group Chat Bets for Week 18!

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