š The QB Week From Hell
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we provide updates on the QB landscape, highlight Week 9 rankings and tiers, as well as Freedman's Favorites.
āToxic Groupthinkā sounds like a Rage Against The Machine cover bandā¦
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- Updates on the gross QB landscape
- Week 9 Rankings & Tiers: Two Smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNFās best bet
- The Dolphins are in Germany
- Freedmanās Favorites: Big names to bet on
- Itās 11/2. Take it away, Peter Overzetā¦
Week 9 is a brutal week for QB.
Between byes and injuries, there isnāt much to choose from.
And if you are playing a āmain slateā contest on Underdog Fantasy or DraftKings, there are even fewer options in play with Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes squaring off in Germany on Sunday morning, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen headlining SNF, and Justin HerbertĀ and Zach Wilson playing Monday.
With that said, here is a roundup of the recent QB moves you need to be aware of heading into this weekendā¦
š The Raiders announce AOC will start
If you are going to blow it up, you might as well blow it up.
The Raiders are expected to start rookie QB Aidan O'Connell this week vs. the Giants and send Jimmy Garoppolo to the bench.
It honestly canāt get any worse than it did on MNF, and AOC (sorry for getting political) was at least willing to pepper Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs with targets when he started vs. the Chargers a month ago:
OāConnell is in play on DraftKings this week ($4,500 salary), but there are better options to start in managed leagues.
ā£ļø Arthur Smith promotes Taylor Heinicke
Less than one week after calling the criticism of Desmond Ridder ātoxic groupthink,ā Arthur Smith has made the toxic decision to bench him for Taylor Heinicke due to ālots of variablesā:
Itās very unlikely Heinicke is the answer to solving Smithās offensive riddles and unlocking the playmaking ability in this offense. But itās worth a shot.
If anything, Heinicke should take off running less than Ridder and push the ball downfield a few more times.
Drake London missed practice yesterday with a groin injury and appears legitimately questionable for this weekās game vs. the Vikings.
Both the TEsāKyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith (order them how you want; there are good people on both sides)āwould be very involved if London were to miss.
š¤¦ Misc. QB roundup
Itās Kenny Pickett vs. Will Levis on TNF tonight.
With Joshua Dobbs getting a travel week, the Vikings will start rookie Jaren Hall and the Cardinals will start Clayton Tune.
Deshaun Watson is practiced yesterday, but if you are familiar with the cycle, you know itāll be P.J. Walker at QB on Sunday.
Josh AllenĀ missed practice yesterday with a shoulder injury, so keep an eye on that.
šŗ Step Aside Thirsty Thursday...
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 9 of the fantasy football season. Below youāll find Dwainās thoughts on some must-start players. Find all of our positional rankings here.
š„ Running Back
š„ Tier 2 - Joe Mixon
Mixon has accounted for 81% of the Bengals rushing attempts in 2023 ā the most of any RB in the NFL. He is among the few backs to account for 100% of their teamās attempts inside the five-yard line. The Bengals prefer to pass inside the five-yard line, but Mixon always has a chance to come through with a multi-score game in a high-scoring affair.
His 55% route participation isnāt elite, but it is in RB1 territory, and Mixon has accounted for 70% of the snaps in the two-minute offense. He often gives way in LDD (long down and distance) situations, but those are snaps we are willing to sacrifice. Historically, those are not target-friendly plays for RBs.
The veteran RB averages almost 20 opportunities per game with 16 attempts and 3.3 targets, playing on one of the best offenses in the NFL. That is a powerful combination ā especially potential shootout games like the one against Buffalo this weekend.
The Bengals have the second-highest team total (25.5) in Week 9 against a Bills defense that allows the ninth-most yards rushing (122) per game. Mixon has been an average to below back from an efficiency standpoint, but the Bills are not a good tackling team. They rank fourth-worst in PFF tacking grade (33.9), and the veteran RB should have a chance to tack on extra yards.
Mixon UPGRADES to RB1 territory in this spot and is a top-20 play in Week 9.
š„ Wide Receiver
š„ Tier 3 - Chris Olave
Olave continues to perform below expectations in the fantasy box score. Averaging 12.7 points per game, he ranks as the WR34 ā a far cry from the Round 2 pick many fantasy managers spent.
However, the second-year WR continues to do the things well that historically correlate to scoring more fantasy points. He ranks seventh in targets (77) and second in air yards (1,079).
Over the last 12 seasons, players with similar air yards and targets per game to Olave have been WR1 material. As you can see from the table above, most WRs with similar underlying data have also performed well in 2023.
While some of those air yards have come in tightly contested situations or hard-to-catch scenarios, the thing that matters most is intent. The intent is for Olave to be the centerpiece in a passing attack that is picking up steam. He is earning targets, and Derek Carr wants to target him.
I want to continue to bet on that formula, especially considering the Saints' passing game is picking up steam as Carr has gotten over his shoulder injury. Over the last three games, Carr has averaged 321 yards and 1.3 TDs.
This weekend, the Saints also carry a top-three team total (24.5) and face a Bears secondary allowing the third-most passing yards per game (270.5) on the slate.
Olave is a SMASH play as my WR10 and No. 24 player for Week 9.
Check Out More Positional Rankings for Week 9!
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matthew Freedman is here to give you a peek behind the curtain with one of his best bets for the gameā¦
šĀ Bad news for the Giants. Their passing game canāt afford this.
šĀ Leonard Fournette in a Bills uniform. Are those cut-offs?
š§¢Ā Never trust the visor. Huge red flag.
šĀ Some football is better than no football, right?Ā Everything you need for the Titans vs. Steelers betting and DFS showdown slate.
š¤£Ā How Josh McDaniels got fired. This isnāt true, but itās hilarious.
šļøĀ Kirk Cousins had a successful surgery. Get well soon.
š¬Ā A league-winning RB is returning soon. Only one more game on the IR.
š¹Ā Some losses hit harder than others. The Bloody Mary helps.
š¤Ā Mike McDanielās first words to the media in Germany. Cāmon guys, laugh at that.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called āFreedmanās Favoritesā. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding āNoā. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 9ā¦
šĀ Derek Carr (Saints) vs. Bears
- Saints: -7.5Ā
- O/U: 41
- TT: 24.25
Carr was acceptably unspectacular in Weeks 1-2 (6.7 AY/A) as he transitioned into the new offense, but he exited Week 3 with a shoulder injury, which greatly limited him in Weeks 4-5 (5.6 AY/A), and his lackluster performance in that stretch colored much of the common perception of him this season.
But since returning to full practice in Week 6, Carr has ripped off three consecutive games with 300-plus yards passing (7.2 AY/A), and -- in my opinion -- he has one of the leagueās best WR trios (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed).
Carr is always liable to lose QB snaps to wildcat TE Taysom Hill, but the reward outweighs the risk against the Bears, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.200, per RBs Donāt Matter).
If Carr is available, add him off waivers.
š Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Colts
- Panthers: +3
- O/U: 44
- TT: 20.5
Hubbard had just 54 scoreless yards last week, but he also dominated the Panthers backfield out of the Week 7 bye with a 66% snap rate, 71% rush share, 40% route rate, 100% of the carries inside the five-yard line, and 100% of the snaps inside two minutes -- and thatās despite the fact that previous No. 1 RB Miles Sanders (shoulder) practiced fully and wasnāt listed on the final injury report.
It looks as if Hubbard has clawed his way up the depth chart, and with the usage he had last week he should have better performances in his future.
Why not this week? The Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.0 FPPG).
š Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs. Chargers
- Jets: +3
- O/U: 41.5
- TT: 19.25
Wilsonās raw numbers through seven games might not impress (39-469-2 receiving, 68 targets), but his utilization within the Jets offense is elite (97% route rate, 26% target rate, 33% target share, 48% air share, 57% of endzone targets, league-high 57% of redzone targets, and league-high 82.6% WOPR).
The Chargers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (49.8%).
š Demario Douglas (Patriots) vs. Commanders
- Patriots: -3.5Ā
- O/U: 40.5
- TT: 22
Douglas is a small Day 3 rookie slot man -- so of course heās already the No. 1 pass catcher for the Patriots. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, Douglas has led all New England WRs with an 80% route rate and 20% target share over the past two games.
And he could see even more work this week with WR Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR) out and WR DeVante Parker (concussion) unlikely to play.
The Commanders are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.9 FPPG).
š Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Bengals
- Bills: +2.5
- O/U: 48.5
- TT: 23
Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid has 13-140-1 receiving on 15 targets over the past two games, and I expect his usage to stick given that No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) is out and No. 3 TE Quintin Morris (ankle) hasnāt played or practiced since Week 6.
Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.7 FPPG).
MORE OF FREEDMANāS FAVORITES FOR WEEK 9
