Tell us how you really feel about Marvin Mims, Mr. Payton…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by CTRL:

The Chargers should definitely select a WR with the fifth overall pick, right?

They cut Mike Williams and shipped off Keenan Allen to the Bears for cap space. You can’t just leave Justin Herbert hanging as the biggest loser from Free Agency, right?

Not so fast.

Listen to this Jim Harbaugh clip and let me know if this sounds like a guy who plans to use a premium pick on a pass catcher:

Jim Harbaugh talking offensive line like only Jim Harbaugh can

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge)
Mar 25, 2024

I understand that Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to establish the run. They worship at the altar of smash mouth football. It’s their lifeblood.

Buuuuuuuut your QB isn’t Zach Wilson. It’s not Tim Tebow. It’s Justin Herbert.

It’s fine to want to tilt things back to a balanced offense, but tearing down the entire pass-catching apparatus and then ignoring the position with two historically great prospects near the top of the draft would be organizational malfeasance.

It’s especially cruel to listen to these comments after watching what LSU wideout Malik Nabers did at his Pro Day yesterday:

• 4.35 40-yard dash
• 10’9” broad jump
• 42-inch vertical leap

Please find a change of heart, Harbaugh, and draft a WR.

Asking for a friend (his name is Justin Herbert, and you should familiarize yourself with him when you get a sec).

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🤠 Draft rumors, free agency recap, and more. Kendall rounds it all up.

🤔 The weird case of Dak Prescott’s contract. Make it make sense.

🤦 The Broncos found another way to keep Marvin Mims off the field. Great.

📏 An INSANE vertical leap. Unreal.

🎙️ Bill Belichick on the mic? They are trying to make it happen.

🐬 Everyone is copying the Dolphins. How one motion play went mainstream.

📝 10 takeaways from the NFL owners meetings. Nice round-up of all the changes.

🥊 An early look at the Carolina backfield battle. Dave Canales weighs in.

Want to get a few drafts in before the NFL Draft? Pete polled a bunch of the top drafters and streamers for their favorite strategy tip in Underdog Fantasy’s Big Board contest so you can get an edge on the competition…

The best ball season started earlier than ever in 2024 with contests opening before the Super Bowl had even taken place, and we’ve been following it closely at Fantasy Life ever since.

Ian kicked us off with some early strategy thoughts in January and I weighed in with my favorite tactics when I started drafting in March. And more recently, I’ve covered the ADP (average draft position) movements after the NFL Combine and Free Agency.

With the contest set to lock on April 25th (the night of the NFL Draft)–and $200,000 up for grabs–I wanted to put together the ultimate early drafting cheat sheet.

To do so, I asked the top drafters on Underdog for their tips and tricks for drafting in The Big Board (and any contest that takes place so far out from the start of the season).

Here are the 10 Tips they shared with me…

📝 TIP 1: ADJUST TO THE NEW QB LANDSCAPE

Because the Late-Round QB strategy smashed in 2023, QB prices are cheaper than ever, and there are lots of ways to take advantage:

The elite ceiling QB tier comes with some very palatable price tags right now and it’s funneling me to a lot of 3-QB builds that are “anchor ceiling QB” + “dusty veteran” + “rookie ceiling chaser” and I’m a huge fan of it. Something like “Josh Allen + Russell Wilson + Bo Nix.” - Jon Warner, Badge Bros

Even as a self-professed elite QB lover most seasons in the past, the value at QB feels incredible in Rounds 6+ with guys like Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, and Tua Tagovailoa all coming to mind. - Liam Murphy, BBM2 Champ

My take: Be patient at QB. There are so many values throughout the draft, especially rookies like the aforementioned Daniels (ADP: 130.6) and Drake Maye (ADP: 150).

📝 TIP 2: ATTACK TEAM-LEVEL CORRELATION

This early in the offseason, we need to lean into the few things we know for certain when drafting:

One of my favorite strategies is placing an emphasis on team level bets. That is, trying to identify entire offenses that may be mispriced and stacking 3-5 players from those teams to be able to capture a big win while only having to be correct on one stance. Without the NFL schedule, correlating for the playoff weeks is more challenging if we're trying to predict which opponents might face each other. But we can still get strong correlation simply by stacking a team. - Sackreligious, Legendary Upside

My take: Loading up on an undervalued offense allows us to reduce the number of things we need to get right. It makes me think of this 7th-place team from Best Ball Mania II that had ELEVEN players from just two teams.

"shart" - editors couldn’t put that in the article lol (fast …sudden… exit) and we used the more widely recognized term to help illustrate how it became a popularized term

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue)
Mar 28, 2024