Presented by
The Case Against Ashton Jeanty: The Next Trent Richardson?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era, we're diving deep into the NFL Draft big board to highlight comparisons, projections, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:
Just a couple of days ago, we released the Thor 500—the top 500 big board for the 2025 NFL Draft from our Fantasy Life NFL draft guru, Thor Nystrom.
In it, Thor provides player comps for every prospect.
Whether you're a draft-obsessed degenerate or just a casual dilettante, the Thor 500 is a fantastic resource.
Given that every Saturday edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter is dedicated to the NFL draft, here are a few items that stand out to me in the Thor 500 upon perusal.
Check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub for all of our draft content.
🧢 Match the Future of Football with New Era Cap
The Official On-Stage Cap of the NFL Draft!
As the top prospects take center stage in Green Bay, New Era Cap stands with them, marking the beginning of their journey. From the first pick to the final selection, experience the thrill alongside the next generation of NFL stars with the Official On-Stage Cap of the NFL Draft from New Era Cap.
Shedeur Sanders Is Ahead of Cam Ward
Entering draft season, QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) was favored to be the No. 1 pick. Now, QB Cam Ward (Miami) is all but guaranteed to go No. 1 (-10000).
*All odds are from BetMGM.
Even so, Thor still has Sanders ahead of Ward in his updated QB prospect rankings.
And I can see it.
Last year, Caleb Williams went No. 1 ahead of Jayden Daniels—yet it was Daniels who won Offensive Rookie of the Year. And we saw the same thing the year before with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud: Young was the No. 1 pick, but it's Stroud who has had the better career.
Ward will be the top pick overall, and I now think there's a good chance that Sanders will fall down the draft board. Thor has him at No. 8 in his top 500, and to go in the top five he's only +325, which comes out to just a 23.5% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
But that doesn't mean Ward will be the better NFL player. That could easily be Sanders, who last year had a nation-best 74.0% completion rate while slinging it for 4,134 yards and 37 TDs to 10 INTs and winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the nation's top upperclassman QB.
I personally have Ward ahead of Sanders on my top 75 big board (I'll expand it to my top 100 this upcoming week), but I'm nothing if not humble, and I know Thor is much better at QB evaluation than I am.
If Thor thinks Sanders will be the better professional, then it definitely could happen—and I think it will be worth keeping that in mind in a couple of weeks when we're all doing our rookie drafts for various dynasty leagues.
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Cam Ward
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Shedeur Sanders
Ashton Jeanty Is in the Top Three
Thor has RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) at No. 3, right behind the two undisputed blue chip players in the class: WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado) and EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State).
On the one hand, this makes sense. This is not a strong class overall, so there's room for a great player—regardless of positional value—to catapult himself up the board on the basis of sheer talent alone.
And in our updated Fantasy Life dynasty rookie rankings, Jeanty is easily the 1.01. Last year, he put up 2,739 yards and 30 TDs in 14 games, earned unanimous first-team All-American recognition, and won the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards as the best all-around player and top RB in the nation. The dude is a baller.
On the other hand … this is a strong RB class, so it especially feels a little aggressive to me to have ranked No. 3 a guy who plays a non-premium position, who entered college as a three-star recruit, who didn't play at a powerhouse program, who didn't test at the combine or his pro day, who isn't even 5-foot-9, and who's not built like an obvious workhorse at 211 pounds.
Thor's comp for Jeanty is Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, who might be my favorite NFL player of all time: Like Tomlinson, I went to TCU, and in 2007—my first year really playing fantasy—Tomlinson led my fantasy team to a championship with his final first-team All-Pro campaign.
I currently have Jeanty at No. 9 on my big board. He's a great prospect who will probably have a strong NFL career.
But he has a number of flags that aren't green. I'm not saying that they're red … but they're some shade of yellowish orange. I feel that needs to be pointed out—because right now on social media, people will tell you to trade whatever you need in order to acquire the 1.01 so you can get Jeanty in rookie drafts.
But you might be getting Trent Richardson instead of Tomlinson. That's within the range of outcomes.
Just as there's a chance that Sanders will be better than Ward, there's also a chance that one of the RBs taken shortly after Jeanty—Omarion Hampton (North Carolina), TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State), and Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)—will have an NFL career that is comparable to Jeanty's, if not better.
In 2007, did you really need to trade up for Adrian Peterson when you could have taken Marshawn Lynch later? In 2008, why would you have moved up to get Darren McFadden when literally the six RBs taken right after him were Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice?
Two years ago, was it necessary to trade up for Bijan Robinson when you could stick with your pick and get Jahmyr Gibbs?
Jeanty deserves to be the 1.01 in this class, and he's probably a top-3 talent overall.
But he plays a position that is heavily impacted by health, playcaller, scheme, and surrounding talent, and there are a number of players at his position in this class who are also very good.
Thor has Jeanty in the top 3, and I get it—but I can't help but feel that the gap between him and Hampton (and maybe even Henderson and Judkins) is not that big.
- Thor's Updated RB Rankings: Jeanty at the top
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Ashton Jeanty
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Omarion Hampton
FULL PRE-DRAFT DYNASTY ROOKIE RANKINGS
Jaxson Dart & Jalen Milroe in the 40s
There has been a lot of buzz over the past couple of weeks about how the Browns, Giants, and Saints might pass on QB in the top 10 and then trade back into Round 1 to get their guys.
And the market total on QBs taken in Round 1 is currently 2.5 with heavy juice to the over (-500, 83.3% implied probability).
Bettors are expecting Ward and then at least two of Sanders, Jaxson Dart (Mississippi), and Jalen Milroe (Alabama) to go on Day 1.
But Thor has Dart and Milroe ranked next to each other at Nos. 41-42 in his big board.
Both have gotten Round 1 hype, and both plan to attend the draft in person, which means that they (or their agents) anticipate (or are at least optimistically hopeful for) a Round 1 selection.
And yet I'm skeptical that we will actually see them go in Round 1. It's hard for teams to get trades done—especially when they don't want to overpay to get an extra Day 1 pick, and these QBs are not worth mortgaging the future for.
The market strongly suggests that we'll see three-plus QBs selected on this upcoming Thursday, but recent sharp mocks have this as much more of a coin flip.
And Thor has only two QBs graded as Round 1 guys.
Maybe Dart and Milroe will find their way into the top 32—but if they do, they will likely have been overdrafted.
Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft. Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for regular guidance, best bets, and more.
For all my NFL draft props, see our free Fantasy Life bet tracker, which I update regularly.
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Jaxson Dart
- Thor's Prospect Profile: Jalen Milroe
Our favorite content from the fantasy football and NFL Draft watercooler, from us to you …
😬 We’ve hit on the best rookie landing spots for fantasy football … but what about the worst?
🤝 Dynasty rookie drafts are around the corner. Get up to speed on trade strategy.
📝 ICYMI … three draft-day rumors that are causing a stir.
😭 Some teams shoot themselves in the foot. These ones, in particular, have had trouble contending.
📈 Tyler Shough in the first round? There are murmurs.
🦵 Want to revive the interest in kickers in fantasy football? Here’s an idea.
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.