Lessons from the NFL Preseason Week 2

The start of the regular season continues to inch closer. We’re nearly through the second week of the preseason, which means we are less than three weeks away from the debut Thursday Night matchup between the Lions and Chiefs.

Plenty of teams decided to get a more significant look at their starters this week, so there were a handful of takeaways from a fantasy perspective. That’s going to have a meaningful impact on ADP heading into the heart of redraft season.

Let’s dive into five of the most noteworthy performances from preseason Week 2.

Don’t Sleep on Tank Bigsby

Bigsby was a Day 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but most fantasy players weren’t particularly worried about him heading into the season. Travis Etienne is coming off the board as RB14 on Underdog, which puts him as an early fourth-round pick. But their ADP gap may not be as indicative of their projected roles once the season starts.

For comparison, Kenneth Walker faces a similar situation in Seattle. The Seahawks used a Day 2 pick on running back Zach Charbonnet, which caused Walker’s ADP to plummet. Walker was routinely coming off the board inside the top two rounds in NFFC drafts before the draft, but his ADP has dipped to around 60 in recent months:

Kenneth Walker ADP

So why has Walker been dinged so heavily while Etienne has been virtually unpunished? I think the initial answer was that Bigsby didn’t feel like much of a threat, especially since Etienne was a first-round pick.

However, that perception should change after the first two weeks of the preseason.

Bigsby has been extremely impressive through his first two games. He gashed the Cowboys for 52 yards on nine carries in Week 1, and he followed that up with 70 yards on 13 carries against the Lions in Week 2. Overall, he’s averaged more than 5.5 yards per carry.

Bigsby was already someone that the coaching staff has had rave reviews for during training camp:

Add it all up, and he could be some serious competition for Etienne this season. Bigsby would likely need an injury to Etienne to become a “league winner,” but he’s shaping up as a solid midround option at the position.

As for Etienne, he becomes a riskier option with each Bigsby carry.

Darren Waller SZN

Tight end is one of the trickiest positions in fantasy. Travis Kelce remains the top dog at the position, and he’s someone who routinely comes off the board in the first round of drafts. He’s in a clear tier of his own, providing his drafters with an unmatched advantage at TE.

After that? Things get a bit dicier.

Mark Andrews is the consensus No. 2 tight end, and like Kelce, most people tend to think he’s in a tier of his own. But after Friday night’s performance from Waller, I’m starting to think that Andrews deserves some company.

It was only one drive, but Waller ran eight pass-routes in his Giants’ debut. He was targeted on four of them, good for a whopping 50% target share. He responded with three catches for 30 yards, making him the clear leader for the Gaints’ passing attack.

Aug 18, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger (82) celebrates with New York Giants tight end Darren Waller (12) after catching a touchdown pass against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not like Waller is unfamiliar with being a top fantasy TE. He previously checked that box with the Raiders, only to see his role diminish last year due to injuries and the addition of Davante Adams.

With minimal competition for targets in New York, it should surprise no one if Waller cracks the Top 3 at the position this season, and he might even challenge Andrews for the No. 2 spot. His ADP will certainly continue rising, but he’s looking like a potential steal at his current position of 67.2 on Underdog.

Kenny Pickett Shines Again, Jaylen Warren Steals the Show

The optimism surrounding the Steelers’ offense grows by the week.

The Steelers have all the makings of a solid offense. They have two solid receivers, an above-average TE, and good depth at RB. The lone question was whether or not Kenny Pickett would help all these players realize their potential.

Pickett struggled as a rookie, averaging just 5.5 adjusted yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, he did display a bit of that “it factor” that you look for in quarterbacks, engineering multiple game-winning fourth-quarter drives.

Pickett could be poised for a solid leap in Year Two if the preseason is any indication.

He looked sharp once again on Saturday, leading the team to two touchdowns on his two drives. One of them started deep in Buffalo territory, but Pickett capped it off with a strike to Pat Freiermuth:

That’s a legit NFL-caliber throw.

It’s easy to overreact to preseason performances, but I feel a lot more comfortable drafting guys like Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens than I did a month ago.

The same cannot be said for Najee Harris. He was drafted in the first round in 2021, which is the RB equivalent of being born with a silver spoon in your mouth. A team investing that kind of draft capital in you earns you a pretty long leash, and Harris has had ample opportunities through his first two seasons.

Harris led the NFL in touches as a rookie, but he saw 68 fewer touches in his sophomore year. He remained one of football's most inefficient running backs, so it’s officially put up or shut up time entering his third season.

If Harris is not up for the challenge, Warren seems game. He broke off a long touchdown run on Saturday and was already one of Fantasy Life’s most-drafted players on Underdog.

As things stand currently, Warren is a high-upside backup who could see some work on passing downs. Those are exactly the types of players you want to target for your bench. If Harris stumbles or gets injured, Warren could be a league winner.

Tyjae Spears is a Priority Backup

Spears is another RB going late in drafts who stands out as a priority bench stash. He was a productive player at Tulane, and the Titans used a third-round pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Of course, Spears has a monster, Derrick Henry-sized obstacle in front of him.

Henry has been a top RB for many years now, but he has quietly shown signs of decline. He’s averaged 4.4 and 4.3 yards per carry over the past two seasons after averaging at least 4.9 in the previous three years.

Henry also has plenty of tread on his tires. He’s led the league in carries in three of the past four seasons, and he’ll hit the dreaded age cliff of 30 years old in January. That’s historically been a death sentence for RBs, and while Henry could certainly be an outlier, it’s not crazy to assume he might not be the same player.

If he does suffer an injury, Spears will have a chance to shine. He put his athleticism on display with an extremely impressive touchdown run Saturday vs. the Vikings:

Add it all up, and Spears checks a lot of boxes at a very reasonable price.

Dameon Pierce is a Clear Value

There was some talk before the draft that the Texans might look to bring in some competition for Pierce. They didn’t and instead took a massive gamble to double down on C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., with Devin Singletary brought in as a free agent.

But clearly, this is still Pierce’s backfield.

Pierce was an absolute workhorse for the Texans in his first action of the preseason. The first-team offense played 14 snaps, and Pierce was on the field for all of them. That includes passing situations, which wasn’t a forte for Pierce last year:

Singletary is a slight threat to Pierce’s workload – particularly on passing situations – but it’s very possible that Pierce ends up as Houston’s bell cow.

Drafters have not accurately priced that upside into Pierce’s range of outcomes. He’s coming off the board as RB19 on Underdog and slips all the way to RB25 in FFPC drafts. I’m more than happy to grab him to anchor a zero-RB start or as an RB2 with RB1 upside.

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