Be Water, My Friend

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Winners Circle Proxy

Today’s NFL prop play got me thinking about confronting priors in the face of scrutiny. If our initial assertions/beliefs are built on a strong foundation, we need to defend them—confidence is paramount to success. Bad ideas absolutely must be confronted with better ones. So where exactly is the balance between standing justifiably tall on rational counters and pigheadedness?

To me, that answer always lies in the argument’s construction itself. If you base a position on objective reality, then changing your mind if properly challenged isn’t flip-flopping—but a display of critical thinking. It’s the reason I use charts to trade and stats to bet; not because they predict the future but because they keep me objectively malleable in my approach.

Be water, my friend…

What’s in today’s newsletter?

Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange
Watercooler: Diving into the AFC South

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮 — Polishing Dust

I owe newly minted Texan Joe Mixon an apology for kneeling to my priors without doing the necessary investigating. Maybe it’s because I rostered him in fantasy football two years ago when he failed to outplay Samaje Perine, underwhelming down the stretch. One thing did stick with me, though—our relationship was over. Then, Mixon and his 4.0 yards per carry bored the daylights out of us again in Cincinnati last season, further cementing those same priors.

Well, the Texans saw potential in an above-average explosive play rate and clearly disagreed. Houston backed up the Brink’s truck to the Mixon residence, giving him 8.5 million reasons to steady a backfield in one of the league’s truly ascendant offenses. Four yards and several dust clouds later, Mixon’s shown the most important (and perhaps most difficult) ability in pro football—availability. Since 2021, the 28-year-old former Sooner ranks fourth in overall touches (913), first in goal-to-go carries (74), and third in rushing TDs (29).

So why is Mixon’s TD prop at 5.5 despite averaging more than +0.50 rushing TDs per game across an entire career?

I’m not sure, but I’m also not waiting around to miss the boat.

He’s back at Texans practice and, by all reasonable accounts, projecting to at least step into the ~50% touch role voided by Devin Singletary. Houston’s also been vocal about last year’s struggles punching it in from short, as incumbent Dameon Pierce couldn't have been much worse in those situations—11 goal-to-go rushes, 3 total yards, 2 TDs. Not great, Bob.

Scoring is vulnerable to variance and admittedly wonky, plus injuries hang like the Sword of Damocles over every prop bet —but if the Texans level up in the way I think they can, this prop could be in the bag before Halloween.

THE BET: Joe Mixon Over 5.5 Touchdowns (-140)

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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️ — Give Him The Heater

Sometimes the same nonstop churning that turns the public off to baseball betting is precisely the thing providing an edge to degenerate professionals. Let’s be honest—it takes a special kind of crazy to stay fully prepped on everything in MLB seven days a week for six months straight (takes a bow).

That said, there is an available edge when it comes to lesser-known assets that the normies have never heard of. Let’s take a quick look at Grant Holmes for example (who?)—Atlanta’s 28-year-old late-blossoming rookie.

After posting a very lackluster 4.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 14.2% K-BB across an entire decade shuffling around the minors, something finally clicked down in the dirty-dirty.

Beginning in a relieving role, Holmes eventually forced his way into the starting rotation of a competitive ballclub—and he’s been flashing top-tier strikeout stuff since. Ignore the season ERA (Holmes had a blowup at Coors Field, who cares?). His curveball/slider combo is downright filthy and Holmes looks like a legitimate strikeout machine. The underlying disciplinary metrics since the promotion are eye-popping—71.6% Strike, 25.0% K-BB, 16.8% Swinging Strike, 34.0% CSW, and 31.5% Whiff. WOW.

Holmes faces the Giants, who are … not good. The San Francisco Treats are batting below the Mendoza Line as a squad versus righties over the last two weeks, with well-below-average approach metrics across the board this month (25.8% K, 12.8% Swinging Strike, 80.9% Zone-Contact).

Holmes even achieved a full workload in his last start, throwing 97 pitches which should alleviate pitch count concerns and clear the runway for an easy cash tonight.

THE BET: Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Around the Watercooler

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔥 Can C.J. Stroud do it again? Best bets for the AFC South for 2024.

🤝 Your keys to winning $10 million. Freedman walks you through the 2024 Circa Survivor contest.

🚀 Betting on Offensive Player of the Year? Breece Hall offers value.

⛳️ Nothing gets the juices flowing like a 45-1 longshot. Best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.