Matthew Freedman reveals the Packers-Dolphins Thanksgiving Game Model, featuring best bets and more.

In this breakdown of the Week 13 Packers-Dolphins Thanksgiving Day matchup, I include my early-game and player projections. Basically, what my model says will be the final score and player stats (via a boxscore). These projections should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.), highlight any potential best bets I have on the game, and note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about.

Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

Check out my breakdowns for the other Thanksgiving Day games.

• Lions-Bears
• Cowboys-Giants

For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 13 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of  2:45 p.m. ET on Wed., Nov. 27.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

You can get 50% off using the code BF50 with our Black Friday special. Treat yourself. But if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

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Packers-Dolphins Betting Markets

• Spread & Total: GB -3.5 | O/U 47.5
• GB ML: -169 (ESPN Bet) 
• MIA ML: +150 (BetMGM)

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -3.5 means the Packers need to win by at least four points to cash. If the Dolphins win outright or manage to lose by no more than three, they cash. A total of 47.5 means that 48 or more points cashes the over and 47 or fewer points cashes the under. A -169 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $169 to win $100; a +150 ML, $100 to win $150.

The Packers at home against Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in the cold with the chance for meaningful wind and a little snow: Come on …

Packers-Dolphins Implied Team Totals

• GB Team Total: 25.5
• MIA Team Total: 20.25

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Packers-Dolphins Betting Projections

• Spread: GB -4
• Total: 46.0
• ML: +/-183.4

Packers-Dolphins Projected Final Score

• Packers: 25
• Dolphins: 21

Packers-Dolphins Projected Odds to Win

• Packers: 62.0%
• Dolphins: 38.0%

Packers: Projected Boxscores

Quarterback

Freedman's Favorites

Packers RB Josh Jacobs: In his eight games since QB Jordan Love returned in Week 4 from a knee injury, Jacobs has 827 yards and 8 TDs on 140 carries and 26 targets. He sent the 49ers packing last week with 106 yards and 3 TDs—his fourth straight game with 100-plus scrimmage yardage—and he could once again have a big game as a favorite at Lambeau Field.

From my Week 13 Freedman's Favorites (RB Edition).

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle: In the words of Cornelius Fudge, "He's back!" Waddle has had a disappointing campaign primarily due to the emergence of RB De'Von Achane and midseason absence of QB Tua Tagovailoa, but last week he looked like his former self with a season-best 8-144-1 receiving on 9 targets. As road underdogs, the Dolphins could give Waddle another healthy workload with a pass-leaning game script against the Packers, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.8%, per RBs Don't Matter) and could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee), who missed last week and has been in and out of the lineup all season with a lingering injury.

From my Week 13 Freedman's Favorites (WR Edition).

Packers: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 5-6, -13.9% ROI | Favorites: 3-4, -18.5% ROI | Home: 3-3, -5.6% ROI
• ML: 8-3, 22.2% ROI | Favorites: 6-1, 26.8% ROI | Home: 4-2, 8.3% ROI
• Under: 5-5-1, -4.1% ROI | Home: 3-2-1, 12.1% ROI 

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

This year the Packers haven't consistently covered, but they have regularly won, especially when they've been favored.

If you like the Packers, it might be wisest to bet them on the ML. Then again … maybe not.

Dolphins: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 5-6, -12.7% ROI | Underdogs: 2-2, -2.3% ROI | Road: 3-2, 15.5% ROI
• ML: 5-6, -27.1% ROI | Underdogs: 1-3, -45.7% ROI | Road: 2-3, -21.2% ROI
• Under: 6-5, 5.3% ROI | Road: 4-1, 54.6% ROI 

The Dolphins have underwhelmed on the road … but in all fairness Tagovailoa has missed three of the team's away games, so they're probably not representative.

Packers: Betting Trends

• HC Matt LaFleur on Thanksgiving: 1-0 ATS, 94.3 ROI% | 1-0 ML, 320.0% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur: 58-43 ATS, 10.3 ROI% | 67-34 ML, 16.3% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur at Home: 31-19 ATS, 18.8 ROI% | 38-12 ML, 16.2% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur in Prime Time: 18-12 ATS, 15.4 ROI% | 18-12 ML, 11.1% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur With QB Jordan Love: 15-14 ATS, -1.1% | 16-13 ML, 14.2% ROI
• Outdoor Unders With Wind (10-15 mph): 555-400-7, 12.3% ROI 

Last year LaFleur on Thanksgiving led the Packers as underdogs of more than a TD to a big 29-22 road win over the Lions. 

As he has shown throughout his career, LaFleur can handle the spotlight, and his Packers have consistently been one of the league's best teams at home.

But it's also undeniable that LaFleur's market magic has been less potent ever since the team transitioned from QB Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Also, with a forecast of 13-mph winds, this game could have fewer points than expected, making the spread harder to cover for the favorite.

Dolphins: Betting Trends

• HC Mike McDaniel: 24-23 ATS, -2.2 ROI% | 25-22 ML, -17.0% ROI
• HC Mike McDaniel With QB Tua Tagovailoa: 21-17 ATS, 6.0 ROI% | 23-15 ML, -5.8% ROI
• HC Mike McDaniel as Underdog: 8-11 ATS, -18.5% ROI% | 4-15 ML, -48.5% ROI
• HC Mike McDaniel in Primetime: 3-9 ATS, -50.9% ROI% | 3-9 ML, -56.1% ROI
• HC Mike McDaniel as Primetime Dog With Tua: 2-4 ATS, -33.7% ROI% | 1-5 ML, -63.8% ROI
• QB Tua Tagovailoa Below 50 Degrees: 2-6 ATS, 51.6% ROI% | 1-7 ML, -85.0% ROI

McDaniel has been a mediocre investment, although he has been better with his starting QB.

The problem is that even with Tagovailoa, McDaniel has been notably subpar as an underdog and in prime time—and then there's always the issue of weather: When the temperature starts to get even a little cold, the Dolphins with Tua have struggled. 

Spoiler: Green Bay gets cold at night in late November.

Packers-Dolphins External Factors

• Weather: This might not qualify as a full-blown "weather game," but the forecast does call for 13-mph winds, a 28-degree temperature, and 8% chance of snow showers (per NFLWeather). That certainly hurts the Dolphins more than Packers.
• Home-Field Advantage: The Dolphins aren't in division, and their natural grass at home isn't a perfect match for the hybrid surface at Lambeau Field. The Packers still have a large HFA in this spot.
• Travel: The Packers are on their second straight home game, and they have played just one away game (in nearby Chicago) since Week 9. And since Week 6 they've had only two road games. The Dolphins are coming off back-to-back home games, but the long-term travel edge clearly belongs to the Packers.
• Rest: The Packers had their bye in Week 10 and have traveled little (only to Chicago) since then, whereas the Dolphins had their bye in Week 6.

Packers: Notable Injuries

• WR Romeo Doubs (concussion): Out.
• TE John FitzPatrick (back): His limited practice on Wednesday puts him on track to play this week … and, honestly … it doesn't matter.
• C Josh Myers (pectoral): He practiced fully on Friday and played last week, so I expect him to be active.
• CB Jaire Alexander (knee): Out.
• LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring): Out.
• LB Isaiah McDuffie (ankle): After missing Monday and Tuesday, his limited practice on Wednesday gives him a shot to play through his questionable tag.

I've projected Doubs, Alexander, and Cooper to be out since Sunday. If McDuffie sits, that could create something of a cluster situation at offball LB, but there's nothing here that's unexpected.

Dolphins: Notable Injuries

• EDGE Tyus Bowser (knee, calf): Out.
• LB Anthony Walker (hamstring): Out.
• CB Kendall Fuller (concussion): Out.
• LT Terron Armstead (knee): Didn't practice at all before drawing a questionable tag, but that has been his normal mode of operation since Week 11. I'd be surprised if Armstead didn't play.

The Dolphins are without a key defender at each level of the defense. Not ideal.

Packers-Dolphins #RevengeGames

“What though the field be lost? All is not lost; the unconquerable will, and study of revenge, immortal hate, and courage never to submit or yield: And what is else not to be overcome?”

Packers No. 3 RB Chris Brooks was on the Dolphins last year. As a rookie, he had a respectable 106 yards on 19 carries—and then this offseason he suffered the brutal indignity of receiving a standard injury settlement from the team before signing the next day with the Packers.

The horror!

Packers-Dolphins Best Bet

Given the weather, I expect the Dolphins to struggle to score, so under 47.5 projects to have value, especially since 47 is a key number.

But if I'm pessimistic about the Dolphins … why don't I just bet against the Dolphins?

Best Bet: Packers -3 (-118, DraftKings)

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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