Smell the Roses

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM

Having proudly handicapped MLB for 145 days straight at this point, I took a quick second this afternoon with the fam to stop and smell the roses—let me tell you, it felt good. As someone known to be a perpetual grinder, it can become a net negative. Even I have to remind myself that sometimes scheduled disconnections make you sharper in the long run.

In today’s hustle culture of 24/7 information flow, it’s tempting to push yourself up to and even beyond your limits. While “no pain, no gain” remains true, step away from the screens and all the numbers from time to time. Trust me.

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

Building Blocks
Look Into My Crystal Ball

Building Blocks 🧠🧮—Read The Tape

I’d like to tie some prior trading experience into betting on game totals (over/under) in a way that just may stick with you, adding another gadget to your utility belt (and reason to tell your friends to subscribe!)

Shameless self-promotion aside, it’s critical to unlearn what you have learned. Get beyond a purely adversarial relationship with books and see the forest for the trees. What I mean is just a slight change of perspective turns predatory providers into something more closely resembling a friend. I know many are wondering how, with good reason. The thing is, the house cannot help but show you some of its cards by providing critical information—if you know how to read the tape.

I’ll oversimplify to avoid an all-out novella but the crux is simple. Similar to derivative trades, game totals move incrementally in either direction based on the current volume. In real-time, traders watch orders stack up in anticipation of a price move. In sports betting, we see an almost-perfect reflection when betting over/unders.

Books generally use (-110) as a fulcrum for the lever regarding totals, ensuring profit through volume. That’s to say you’ll never encounter a standard NFL O/u juiced too far, listed at O40.5 (-190) or anything like that. From experience, the furthest you’ll see that price stretched is usually to ~55.6% implied probability (-125), before an actual line shift—and right there’s your signal that cuts through the noise.

Read the tape and use volume’s effect on price directionality as a leading indicator. This becomes an invariably practical tool for bettors of any skill level.

Just a quick bow to clarify using this before we get out of here. Let’s say you modeled a strong signal to bet the over in an MLB game. If the current line sits at O8 (-125) you’d want to hurry to the window—the next move is O8.5 (-110), as the line seeks equilibrium. The slight discount in price is not nearly worth the opportunity cost of the determinative run. In other words, you missed the boat. Sure, the bet could hit anyway, but the signal you needed was there all along. Then, the same principle works in reverse.

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Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Dodging LA

HEAVE HO, FOUR IN A ROW! Another cash on the MLB side—it’s almost like I know what I’m doing…

I’ve chewed off enough of everyone’s ears already today so I’ll make this one quick. The 2024 MLB season is rounding third on its way home and there are still values in the future market. All I can say after combing lines is, man, the public really loves big market teams.

The Dodgers currently hold down the top spot in the NL West by the skin of their teeth—both the Padres and Diamondbacks remain in striking distance, each within four games of LA.

With roughly 35 games left on the schedule, I’m struggling to digest the division winner odds for either of the trailing teams. The thing is, the Dodgers’ pitching staff doesn’t have the projectable firepower it did this spring. Outside of Jack Flaherty—who just failed a physical in NY last month—the Dodger rotation must rely on an aging Clayton Kershaw, plus the combo of Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, who sport a combined 6.92 ERA on the season.

Sure, the offense is back on track, but the dam sprung another leak and now there are questions in the bullpen as well. The point is, the Dodgers are not bad—but also not nearly complete enough of a team to be a -550 favorite with such a slim lead, especially considering three head-to-head games with San Diego remain.

Perfect time for the briefest nugget on executing longshot bets, akin to playing roulette—split your bet on multiple outcomes to take a stand on the field where any hit makes the venture profitable.

THE SPLIT BET: San Diego To Win NL West (+600) & Arizona To Win NL West (+1200)