This offseason, I've written several posts that are either fully or partially about players I'm fading in best ball, redraft, and Guillotine Leagues™.

In this piece, I want to focus on the guys I'm most intently avoiding in the top 100 (per our Fantasy Life ADP Draft Board).

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Anatomy of a Fantasy Fade - Building The Do Not Draft List

As I mentioned in my earlier piece this summer on 32 guys I'm fading, in many cases I think it's more important to avoid mistakes than to chase perfection.

In baseball, what's more important?

• Getting a hit
• Not getting out

If you want to stay alive, what's more beneficial?

• Knowing where there's gold
• Knowing where there's a landmine
   

Not to get all biblical up in here, but in the Book of Genesis, the Hebrew God didn't give Adam and Eve a massive list of all the things they actively needed to do to stay alive.

Instead, all he did was give them one wise injunction: Avoid the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil. Neither eat nor touch its fruit—because it's deadly.

Years ago at Fantasy Labs, I wrote about the importance of strong inference, and I still believe that "falsification" (aka, "the scientific method") is just as crucial in winning fantasy as it is in creating knowledge and existing rationally.

In fantasy, as in life, people can get far just by eliminating errors.

The goal of this piece is to identify and highlight the guys who might be 2025 fantasy pitfalls.

Of course, this is all with ADP in mind, because a guy in Round 3 might be a buy, but in Round 1, a sell. Price matters—perhaps more than anything else.

So I have different evaluative criteria for players based on average draft position (ADP) and where they fall in relation to comparable producers.

In general, I want to avoid the following types of players.

• Guys at the top of a tier
• Dudes who are super similar to someone significantly cheaper
• Bros in Rounds 1-5 who have insecure or low floors
• Fellas in Round 6 and beyond who have insufficient ceilings
   

I'll just assume that the logic for these guidelines requires no explanation—and I'll move on to what you really care about.

Here are the guys I believe carry outsized downside for 2025 fantasy football (ordered by position and consensus ADP).

2025 Do Not Draft List For Fantasy Football

Quarterbacks I'm Fading At Cost

Josh Allen (Bills)

• ADP: QB1 (22.6)
• Projection: QB2

As I mentioned recently in my piece on QBs with 75+ projected carries, Josh Allen (in my opinion) has been the league's best QB over the past half-decade.

Even so, he has little room to outperform his high ADP, and the three QBs going immediately after him (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts) all have a real chance to outscore him.

Bo Nix (Broncos)

• ADP: QB8 (82.2)
• Projection: RB10

Bo Nix is firmly on my 2025 do-not-draft list. He has a reasonable floor, but I don't like his cost-adjusted ceiling. Last year as a rookie, he was modestly mediocre, ranking No. 19 in composite EPA+ CPOE (0.081, per RBs Don't Matter) and No. 25 in AY/A (6.7).

I'd rather wait at the position.

Running Backs I'm Fading At Cost

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)

• ADP: RB5 (10.8)
• Projection: RB10

I don't think Ashton Jeanty will have a bad season—but I have a surprisingly low projection for him.

The Raiders offense will flow through him, and that's reflected in his projected workload (227 carries, 70 targets). His three-down role should give him a high floor.

But the Raiders offense will probably underwhelm, and that will cap his ceiling and make it difficult for him to outperform his ADP in a big way.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

• ADP: RB9 (20.5)
• Projection: RB14

QB Anthony Richardson has gotten strong reports in training camp, and I tentatively expect him to win the Week 1 job. 

That's great for him … but bad for everyone else in the offense, especially Taylor, who will likely lose work in the designed run game and checkdown pass game because of Richardson.

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers)

• ADP: RB18 (47.1)
• Projection: RB23

Chuba Hubbard had a breakout campaign last year with 1,366 scrimmage yards … but this offseason the Panthers added new No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (who had 1,328 yards in 2024 with the Cowboys) and also fourth-round rookie Trevor Etienne (who has a playmaking 4.42-second 40-yard dash).

Hubbard's workhorse role is vulnerable—and the Panthers offense might be bad anyway.

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

• ADP: RB22 (63.3)
• Projection: RB33

RJ Harvey had a forgettable 72 rating in Dwain McFarland's 2025 Rookie RB Super Model, and veteran J.K. Dobbins is coming off a career-best 1,058-yard, nine-TD campaign.

This backfield seems likely to be a committee—and there's a real chance Harvey could be the No. 2 option.

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

• ADP: RB24 (66.4)
• Projection: RB36

Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has second-round draft capital, but veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has workhorse size (6-0, 227 lbs.), a big contract ($17.1M guaranteed), and legitimate NFL production (3,287 yards, 18 TDs since 2022).

I fear OC Josh McDaniels might use Henderson as a next-generation version of Shane Vereen and Kevin Faulk.

Wide Receivers I'm Fading At Cost

Justin Jefferson (Vikings)

• ADP: WR2 (5.8)
• Projection: WR8

Second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is unproven with zero NFL starts, and Justin Jefferson (hamstring) is dealing with a soft-tissue injury, which could linger into the season. Additionally, the VIkings might not need to pass as frequently this year because of their improved defense.

In terms of talent, Jefferson is a top-three NFL WR, but his circumstances cap his ceiling.

Drake London (Falcons)

• ADP: WR9 (20.8)
• Projection: WR25

Last year, Drake London broke out with 1,271 yards receiving, but this year he's being drafted as if the 39 targets he saw in QB Michael Penix's three end-of-season starts will extrapolate across a full season.

The problem: Those three games were against subpar pass defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers), two of them went into OT, and Penix is still largely untested.

Tee Higgins (Bengals)

• ADP: WR12 (31.2)
• Projection: WR14

The Tee Higgins fade is all about arbitrage. Why should I draft Higgins when I can get the similar DeVonta Smith a couple of rounds later?

They're both high-end No. 2 WRs behind dominant No. 1 WRs (Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown) in top-tier offenses (Bengals, Eagles), and they have similar projections (WR14, WR15).

And Higgins has missed 13 games to injury over the past four years; Smith, just three.

Higgins is a great player, but so is the comparable Smith, who's significantly cheaper.

Garrett Wilson (Jets)

• ADP: WR16 (39.2)
• Projection: WR33

My projection for Garrett Wilson is low—but my gut agrees with it.

Wilson is great (three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons), but OC Tanner Engstrand has never called plays before in the NFL, and I expect the Jets to have a fairly inefficient, slow, and run-heavy offense. 

That will make it hard for Wilson to live up to (or outperform) his ADP.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

• ADP: WR24 (58.2)
• Projection: WR26

Courtland Sutton has been successful over the past two campaigns with offensive HC Sean Payton (1,853 yards, 8.2 yards per target) … but he turns 30 years old this season.

Generally, I want to roster only great WRs when they're that old—and, apologies to Sutton, he's good, but not great.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers)

• ADP: WR24 (58.2)
• Projection: WR26

Slot WR Adam Thielen—despite his advanced age—has 1,629 yards on 199 targets over the past two seasons.

I doubt that Thielen will simply dissolve into the background, and the subpar Panthers offense might not generate enough target volume for both of them.

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)

• ADP: WR34 (82.3)
• Projection: WR41

Chris Godwin (ankle) started out last year on fire (50-576-5 receiving in seven games), but then he suffered a season-ending dislocation … and then he needed a second surgery in the spring … and then the Buccaneers drafted WR Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 (he's one of my favorite fantasy bench picks, by the way) … and then the team placed Godwin on the active/PUP list.

He's uncertain for Week 1, and he's already 29 years old. He just feels dangerous.

Tight Ends I'm Fading At Cost

Trey McBride (Cardinals)

• ADP: TE2 (26.8)
• Projection: TE4

I'm not fully fading Trey McBride. In fact, early this offseason, he was on the list of 32 players I want to draft. I do not think McBride will disappoint fantasy investors.

But it's hard for me to draft him when George Kittle and David Njoku have similar projections and are available later.

Sam LaPorta (Lions)

• ADP: TE4 (57.4)
• Projection: TE7

He's at the top of Tier 2 in ADP, which makes him naturally less attractive than others in his cohort, and the Lions offense could regress without former OC Ben Johnson.

Plus, with WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the offense, it's hard for everyone to get the production they need to meet expectations.

Evan Engram (Broncos)

• ADP: TE9 (97.0)
• Projection: TE8

I don't think Evan Engram will be bad, but I strongly prefer David Njoku, who is similarly priced (TE8, 96.7 ADP) but has the far superior projection (82-814-7 receiving vs. 75-682-4).

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